If you wonder where the NRCC is getting
$500K to attack Larry Grant in ID-01,
look down south:
According to five television stations in the DFW market, the NRCC on Monday canceled its planned television ad buy on behalf of [Van] Taylor. The cancelled Taylor buy was valued at over $1.5 million and was scheduled to run in the last two weeks of the campaign [...]
"Two years ago, the NRCC ran over a million dollars of ads in the DFW market alone in support of [Rep. Chet Edward's] opponent. Mr. Taylor can spin the bad news any way he wants, but the fact is that after reviewing its own poll last week, the NRCC has pulled the plug on the Van Taylor campaign," said Edwards Communication Director, Jessica Schafer. "That's not just bad news, that's devastating news for a campaign that was already in trouble."
"With a 21 point lead in the polls and a more than ten-to-one cash-on-hand advantage, we have both the resources and momentum to aggressively communicate Chet's positive message of effective, hard work for the people of the 17th District and get out the vote across the district," added Schafer.
Edwards was one of the few incumbent Dems the NRCC was still aggressively targeting. But with the dam about the burst, and new leaks springing seemingly hourly, it was clear that $1.5 million could be put to better use trying to shore up endangered incumbents and seats in solidly Republican areas like ID-01. It's easier to defend an incumbent than to oust one.
This isn't a Republican Party trying to make gains or break even. They're playing prevent defense to head off a rout.
And they might pull it off. That's why I'm buying the CW that November will see one of two things -- 1) moderate Dem gains - 8-15 seats, or 2) a massive Democratic wave of up to 30 seats. Either they keep the dam from crashing, or it all comes tumbling down.
That's why I'm not ready to call it for the Dems. Yes, we'll make gains, but the GOP will do what it can to limit those losses. And like the Arizona Cardinals proved last night, holding a healthy lead into the 4th quarter means little if you can't hold off the opposition.
Meanwhile, an encouraging poll from the TX-21 race.
Forensic Economics Data (D) for the Courage campaign. Dates unknown. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Lamar Smith (R) 45.6
John Courage (D) 30.5
Gene Kelly (D) 4.6
Tommy Calvert (I) 3.4
James Arthur Strohm (L) 2.9
Mark J. Rossano (I) 0
James Lyle Peterson (I) 0
Undecided 12.2
So why is this poll good news? Because this is an open primary. If no candidate breaks 50 percent, there will be a runoff election. And in a runoff election, post-November, things might look even worse for Republicans. Courage's goal right now is to live to fight another day. That's well within reach.