Last month, I wrote about a dozen contested races for the New York State Senate. Since then, candidates have filed the 1-month pre-election campaign finance compiling report, scheduled and participated in debates, and won endorsements. The playing field has changed somewhat. I overlooked the 2nd District, where Brooke Ellison is mounting a serious challenge to incumbent John Flanagan. In the 40th District, Mike Kaplowitz has gained support from the state party establishment in his race against Vincent Leibell.
Two recent polls underscore how vulnerable the Republican majority in the New York State Senate could be. In a September poll run by the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle,
67% of Monroe County voters said that state legislators have not "done anything noteworthy on [their] behalf." Earlier this week, Elliot Spitzer led John Faso 68-22 in a Siena University
poll , carrying every region of the state by at least 40 points. The same poll found that 60% of upstate voters felt that the state was on the wrong track.
State Committees:
New York State Senate Republican Campaign Committee:
On top of all the money they give to candidates, the NY State Senate Republican Campaign Committee has itself spent $340,000 on TV advertising and $88,500 on polls just in the last three months.
Raised: $1,721,700
Transfers In: $279,825.00
Expenditures: $1,991,162.44
Transfers Out: $963,038.00
Cash on Hand: $3,525,174.27
New York State Democratic Senate Campaign Committee:
Outraised, outspent, and outgunned by its Republican Counterpart, the State DSCC is largely a project for future election cycles. It has given only $14,250 directly to Democratic candidates and has been outspent 20:1 by the SRCC. Spitzer and Paterson have each given about $80,000 to the committee, indicating their commitment to winning control of the State Senate if not in this cycle, then sometime in the future.
Raised & Transfers in: $630,231.16
Expenditures & Transfers out: $146,929.01
Cash on Hand: $885,200.99
A dozen races to watch:
Democratic Defenses:
Sen-34: Inc.
Jeffrey Klein (D,W) - Jospeh J Savino (R,C)
UPDATE: Klein outraised Savino $177,000-$63,000 and has a $698,000-$47,000 COH advantage. He has given to other Democratic candidates, and Savino is getting very little GOP machine money (only $8,500 from Marty Golden). Will Joe Bruno
fork over several hundred thousand on Savino as one New York blogger suggested? So far he has delivered only $55,000.
LIKELY D
9/15: Republican Guy Velella won nine terms to the Senate from this fractal-shaped Bronx/Westchester district, but resigned in disgrace in 2004 after his bribery conviction. In 2004, Klein won 51% of the vote against the Republican nominee John Fleming and Stephen Kaufman, an ex-Democrat who lost the Republican primary, but still ran on the Conservative and Independent tickets. This time around, Klein faces Bronx GOP Chairman Joe Savino. Democrats have a 51-24 registration advantage over Republicans in the district, and Klein has outraised Savino $570,000-$68,000 in the last year. LIKELY D
Sen-49: Inc.
David J Valesky (D,W) - Jeff Brown (R,I,C)
UPDATE: Majority Leader Joe Bruno is so serious about retaking this seat that he has poured
$769,000 into Jeff Brown's campaign to unseat Freshman incumbent Dave Valesky. Both candidates have made TV ad buys. Brown focuses his
ads (may not work with firefox) on lower taxes and putting "Upstate First". Elliot Spitzer stars in one of Valesky's
four ads, which focus on the Senator's reform record and are on the whole far more effective than Brown's. Meanwhile, EdPAC just started running a pair of 15 second negative spots against Brown, focusing on his poor record on
education and
pulic school safety. Valesky, who has already been substantially outspent in this race, trails $170,000 - $68,000 in COH. The candidates
debated last Thursday.
TOSS-UP
9/15: In 2004, Valesky upset incumbent Republican and former Democrat Nancy Lorraine Hoffman in a three-way race, 44.7-44.1. Tom Dadey had unsuccessfully challenged Hoffman from the right in a bitterly contested primary, but had won the Conservative and Independent nominations. Valesky carried the Onodonga County part of the district, which includes part of Syracuse and its suburbs, by 9,000 votes, enough to offset his losses in the more rural portions of the district, and Dadey siphoned off just enough right-wing voters. In the last year, Brown has raised around $160,000, but he has also gotten $250,000 from the Republican State Senatorial Campaign Committee. He has already spent over $200,000 on the Republican firm Cookfair Media. Valesky has rasied some $150,000 and has about that much on hand. In '04, Hoffman spent $250,000 to win the Republican primary and then outspent Valesky $550,000-$200,000 in the general election. TOSS-UP
Pickup Opportunities (listed from most likely pickup to least likely pickup):
Sen-35: Inc. Nicholas Spano (R,I,C) -
Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D)
UPDATE: Spano has poured $625,000 on television
advertisements including one attack spot against Stewart-Cousins accusing her of allowing a homeless shelter that housed--get this--sex offenders to be relocated in a municipality in the district. The Fair Campaign Practices Committee called the spot
"misleading and inflammatory", but Spano stood by the attacks. He has also been
push-polling in the district (his campaign neither confirms nor denies they are responsible for the push-polls). Spano has raised over $350,000 since July including $64,000 from Mayor Bloomberg's PAC, and has $330,000 on hand; Stewart-Cousins raised $150,000 in the same period and is sitting on almost $260,000. Spano has won just about all the endorsements, from the state AFL-CIO and teachers unions to Empire Pride Agenda and pro-choice PACS to the League of Conservation Voters to the New York Times. He hasn't won the endorsement of EdPAC, whose 30-second
TV spot here is as tough on Spano as the ones it is running in the 49th are on Brown. And just like Valesky in the 49th, Stewart-Cousins is running an ad spot starring Elliot Spitzer.
TOSS-UP
9/15: A rematch of one of the closest '04 races anywhere in the country should be the best Democratic pickup opportunity in the State Senate. Three months after the 2004 election, Spano was officially declared the winner by a mere 18 votes. Spano has raised some $750,000 in the last year and has some $800,000 on hand. Stewart-Cousins has raised about $150,000 and has about that much on hand. Spano outspent Stewart-Cousins $470,000-$245,000 in 2004. Spano again has the backing of labor and pro-choice groups, but this year he has lost the ballot line of the Working Families Party without which he would not have won in 2004. This race was a war in 2004, and it will be a war in 2006. TOSS-UP
Sen-02: Inc. John J Flanagan (R,I,C) -
Brooke Ellison (D,W)
NEW RACE. I overlooked this race in September, but State Democrats have made supporting the candidacy of quadriplegic and Harvard graduate Brooke Ellison against two-term incumbent John Flanagan a top priority in this cycle. Ellison's campaign committee has taken in almost $300,000 during the cycle, and has almost $160,000 on hand, making the best funded challenger except of course for Stewart-Cousins in the 35th. Flanagan has been equally successful raising money, and the Senate Republican Campaign Committee provided him a $200,000 infusion at the end of September. Both candidates are up with TV ads. One of Flanagan's ads
caused a stir back in September when a "Democrat" who claimed she was voting for Flanagan made a comment that she "had a huge handicap" (of course she was talking about golf, but one wonders). Brooke Ellison just started running a great spot that focuses on her
personal story. Flanagan is now running a spot
attacking Ellison for her age and inexperience. Ellison does face an uphill fight here, as Republicans have a 38-29 registration edge in the district that has given Flanagan 67% and 62% in his first two races.
LEANS R
Sen-42: Inc. John Bonacic (R,I,C) -
Susan Zimet (D,W)
UPDATE: Since July, Zimet has reeled in $62,000 and the endorsement of the Poughkeepsie Journal; she has $71,000 COH. Bonacic raised a healthy $109,000 (over $60,000 of that from PACs) and has $718,000 on hand. Zimet spent $7,500 for an August 1 poll here and in early September spent $42,000 on TV advertising. Since then, Zimet has apparently withdrawn $28,500 on TV ads. For his part, Bonacic has splurged $123,000 on Whelan Media Strategies, a GOP consulting/advertising firm.
LEANS R
9/15: Bonacic won his seat in 1998 and since then has not until this yea faced a democratic challenger. Zimet, New Paltz Supervisor and former Ulster county legislator, is a strong candidate who is serious about winning. Democrats have a 1.5% registration edge here. Bonacic has a filthy $822,000 COH, but Zimet has done some excellent fundraising herself, raising over $100,000 in a little less than three months. While it will not be easy to unseat Bonacic, Zimet has a chance with her superb fundraising and decent name recognition. LEANS R
Sen-24: Andrew Lanza (R,I) -
Matthew Titone (D,W) - Charles Pistor (C)
UPDATE: A couple weeks after Lanza fended off Conservative Party-endorsed Bob Helbock 53-47 in a hard-fought primary, Helbock withdrew from the race and threw his support behind Lanza. The Conservative Party, however, did not follow suit; instead they nominated Charles Pistor to replace Helbock on the ballot. Local issues and tensions will play an important part of this race. Titone has raised over $50,000 since July to Lanza's $155,000, but Lanza has spent a substantial amount of his money on the primary. Titone has $25,000 COH against $78,000 for Lanza, who has taken over $15,000 from the Senate GOP Leadership. Titone, the first openly gay candidate on Staten Island, has won endorsement from Empire Pride Agenda and swept the endorsements from the pro-choice PACs. Democrats ignore this seat at their own peril, because with Lanza in his forties, this seat may not be open for another four decades.
LEANS R
9/15: Republican John Marchi has held this seat since 1956, making him the longest-serving state legislator in the country. His retirement this year will make this the most competitive open seat State Senate race of this cycle. Titone was unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Lanza edged Helbock, who had Marchi's endorsement, by 6 points. As of September 1, Lanza had $90,000 on hand to Helbock's $66,000. As of July, Titone had raised $37,000 and had $13,000 on hand. The primary cost the Republicans a significant amount of money, and Helbock will remain on the November ballot on the Conservative Line. Furthermore, Democrats have a slight partisan registration advantage in the district, 40-36. Nevertheless, Staten Island can be hostile territory for Democrats, so this race leans slightly toward Lanza. LEANS R
Sen-11: Inc. Frank Padavan (R,I,C) -
Nora C Marino (D,W)
UPDATE: Since July Padavan has raised $120,000--$18,500 of which came from other Republican State Senators--and has only $96,000 COH, on the low end for Republican State Senators. Marino has raised $28,000 in the same period and has $30,000 COH. If the state Democratic party injects a little more money into this race, they can force Bruno and the Senate Republicans to open their checkbooks for Padavan.
LEANS R
9/15: Padavan is a 17-term incumbent who ran unopposed in 2002 and 2004 despite representing a district with a 53-21 Democratic registration advantage. Attorney Nora Marino is running against Padavan this year in the gerrymandered Queens district. Marino has raised $21,000 in the last six months to Padavan's $25,000. Padavan has another $15,000 or so on hand. Ethnically, the district is 26% Asian and 14% Hispanic. Padavan has the support of Mayor Bloomberg, and the advantages of incumbency and name recognition, so I'd give him a slight edge here. LEANS R
Sen-40: Inc. Vincent Leibell (R,I,C) -
Michael Kaplowitz (D,W)
NEW RACE: In late July, Kaplowitz's campaign was inert, and Leibell felt secure enough to make an $8,000 transfer to the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. Since then, Kaplowitz has raised over $120,000, Leibell has taken a $70,000 transfer from the SRCC, and the state Democratic party has made the incumbents one of their top targets in 2006. Kaplowitz perhaps more than any other Democrat is running his campaign against corruption and Albany in general. His campaign stops so far have included a
local pig farm, where he highlighted his opposition to pork-barrel spending in Albany. His TV ad spot,
The Taxpayers' Watchdog, highlights his record as a county legislator and attacks the "most dysfunctional state legislature in America."
LEANS R
Sen-41: Inc. Stephen Saland (R,I,C) -
Brian Keeler (D,W)
UPDATE: For all the more competitve Republican seats in the State Senate, our own Brian Keeler is actually keeping up best with the Republican fundraising machine in his district. Of the Keeler campaign's over $30,000 in reciepts, 87% was from 281 individual contributions averaging about $91 per contribution. Saland's campaign took in just over $35,000 in reciepts, more of which came from Majority Leader Bruno's PAC ($8,500) than from his 31 individual contributions ($8,475), all of which were at least $100. Saland invested $120,000 in radio and TV advertising, and he has another $215,000 in the bank. Keeler has $52,000 cash on hand. Perhaps with some more money,
this ad can be on local television.
LIKELY R
9/15: Saland is an 8-term incumbent whose politics have been slowly diverging from those of his district. The Republican advantage in registration here has shrunk every year and will likely disappear by 2008. Saland won by 30 in 2004 against an abysmally funded opponent. As of July 15, Brian Keeler (dkos user NYBri) had raised over $30,000 in just three months' time, most of them small donations (the filing report is 16 pages long). Saland has almost $350,000 COH. LIKELY R
Sen-15: Inc. Serphin Maltese (R,I,C) -
Albert Baldeo (D)
UPDATE: For all of Baldeo's baggage, he is almost keeping up with Maltese in fundraising. Since mid-July, Baldeo has raised $44,000 while Maltese has taken in about $75,000, $17,000 from other GOP leadership PACs. Baldeo has $45,000 on hand to $76,000 for Maltese. Perhaps the most interesting part of this race are the photo-ops. Baldeo's campaign
website features the candidate posing for photographs with just about every important New York Democrat, plus Bill Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Maltese's website includes a
photo of him accepting the endorsement of /Democratic/ assemblyman
Anthony Seminerio, who is evidently seeking a primary challenger in 2008.
LIKELY R
9/15: Maltese, like Padavan, is a long-term Queens Republican incumbent representing an overwhelmingly Democratic district who has run unopposed the last two elections. However, Maltese endorsed a Republican rival of Mayor Bloomberg in 2005, and since then Bloomberg has been seeking revenge. The nominally Republican mayor tried hard to recruit Democratic Councilman Joseph Addabbo to run against Maltese, but Addabbo backed out, leaving attorney Albert Baldeo as the Democrat in the race. Baldeo has raised only $35,000 to over $130,000 for Maltese. While Maltese is probably weaker than Padavan, Baldeo is the reason this race isn't a better pickup opportunity than the 11th; during a primary campaign for a city council seat last year he and an opponent engaged in a feud that led to both getting arrested. The district is 1/4 hispanic, which could play to Baldeo's advantage. This race leans for Maltese, and we could have done better than Baldeo for a candidate. LIKELY R
Sen-03: Inc. Caesar Trunzo (R,I,C) -
Jimmy Dahroug (D) - David Ochoa (W)
UPDATE: The national grassroots' attention has focused on the Keeler-Saland race in the 41st, but DFA-endorsed Jimmy Dahroug also stands a chance to upset an entrenched Republican incumbent. Dahroug won the primary with a
solid ground game despite Ochoa and Montano outspending him better than 4:1. Dahroug reported $23,000 COH in early October, which is more than he spent getting 41% of the vote in 2004. State Democrats seem to be ignoring this race, but the Republicans aren't; Trunzo has taken $175,000 from the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. Ochoa spent over $130,000 losing the Democratic primary, and while he does not appear to be actively campaigning for election on the WFP ticket, he has not endorsed Dahroug or helped him raised money and he is still boasting outdated primary endorsements on his website.
LIKELY R
9/15: The then 25-year-old grassroots candidate Dahroug pulled 41% of the vote in 2004 against Trunzo, a 17-term incumbent Republican who will likely retire in the next few cycles. Dahroug beat back two primary challengers, garnering 38% of the vote to 35% for businessman David Ochoa and 27% for county legislator Ricardo Montano. Republicans have a 37-30 registration edge here, so it is an uphill battle, but this seat will soon be open as Trunzo is getting pretty old. Trunzo has less COH than most Republicans, only $115,000 as of the end of August. Dahroug had about $17,000 COH as of 9/1; for comparison Montano had about $98,000 and Ochoa was sitting on $139,000 COH. Ochoa beat Trunzo out for the WFP endorsement, so he will still be on the ballot. This seat leans Republican, but Dahroug is a great candidate. There is an significant Latin-American constituency here; about 1/6 of the population is Hispanic. LIKELY R
Sen-52: Inc. Thomas W Libous (R,I,C) -
Mark Trabucco (D,W)
UPDATE: Unlike the two challengers dropped from this list, Trabucco is actually running a campaign. He raised $21,000 since his last filing report, and has a well-run campaign website. Libous does not have a campaign website, only
this site where you can request meeting with the senator himself. When you go to create an account, it asks you on the first page, "Are you a lobbyist?" Seems strange to me, but Libous does get a substantial number of sub-$100 individual contributions. The race is garnering some attention in the
local print media.
LIKELY R
9/15: Libous is an 18-year incumbent who won 60% of the vote in 2004 while outspending his opponent more than 12-1. Republicans hold a 42-33 registration edge here, and Libous is sitting on $650,000 cash. Trabucco is a worthy opponent who has raised $10,000 and loaned himself another $20,000, but it will be tough to unseat an entrenched Republican encumbent in a red district. LIKELY R
Sen-56: Inc. Joseph A Robach (R,C,I,W) -
Willa Powell (D)
UPDATE: Even a fighting dem can't win a Senate Seat raising only $2,177.16.
SOLID R.
9/15: LIKELY R
Sen-38: Inc. Thomas Morahan (R,I,C,W) - Nancy Low-Hogan (D)
UPDATE: Low-Hogan has raised more than Powell, but $7,000 will not be enough to exploit the significant Democratic registration advantage here.
SOLID R 9/15: LIKELY R
New York State Board of Elections
Abbreviations: D=Democratic, R=Republican, C=Conservative, I=Independence , W=Working Families