An average of the 6 major tracking polls in NH (ARG, Zogby, UNH, Suffolk, Gallup/CNN, Globe/WBZ). All polls are categorized according to the last day of polling, and are weighted according to the daily number are respondants. Averages are rounded to one decimal place. Minor candidates and undecided are omitted.
6-Poll Weighted NH Tracking Average:
1/19 1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25
Kerry: 21.8% 24.8% 28.5% 31.9% 33.5% 36.3% 36.2%
Dean: 28.8% 26.0% 22.6% 19.7% 18.7% 19.8% 21.8%
Clark: 18.8% 17.2% 17.2% 16.5% 15.2% 13.0% 12.4%
Edwards: 7.4% 8.0% 9.0% 9.9% 10.8% 11.2% 12.3%
Lieberman: 5.6% 6.2% 6.4% 6.2% 7.2% 7.6% 7.0%
Analysis: Despite the close Zogby numbers, the average of the tracking polls has Kerry plateauing, but still well in the lead. Dean has in fact reversed course and is clearly in second place, but only gaining back a point or two a day for the past 2 days. The main movement otherwise seems to be the 6-day running decline for Clark (at about 1.1 point per day), and the 6-day running increase for Edwards (at about 0.8 points per day). Edwards has a great shot at 3rd place given this consistent dynamic. Lieberman will need a huge independent turnout tomorrow to avoid finishing 5th.