There are 52 seats in Congress currently held by Republicans which could be held by Democrats next year. For the Republicans to retain control of the House, they must win at least 38 of these and lost no more than 14. In viewing the expenditures of the NRCC over the past 10 days, we can begin to get a sense of their strategy for going 38-14 on these races.
In 12 races, (AZ-1, AZ-8, CO-5, IA-2, NV-2, NJ-7, NY-3, NY-19, NY-26, NY-29, VA-10, WY-1) polling shows the GOP candidate with less than 50% AND the NRCC has put zero money into the race in the last 10 days. Some of these races, the NRCC is obviously conceding such as the AZ-8. Other may be funded from another source.
In 5 races, (FL-13, IL-6, IN-2, KY-3, NV-3) the races appear close, but the contribution from NRCC is minimal. In most of these cases the GOP candidate has significant cash on hand and the NRCC may believe that their money is better spent elsewhere.
In 12 races (CA-11, CO-7, ID-1, MN-1, NY-20, NC-11, OH-1, OH-2, PA-10, VT-1, VA-2, WI-8) the races appear close and the NRCC has put in between $100,000 and $300,000 during the past 10 days. Considering the cost of campaigning, I'm not convinced that this is the kind of money necessary to close the deal. So, in these districts, I would say that the GOP is interested and invested by not as serious as the final group of districts.
In 22 races, the NRCC is serious: (AZ-5, CO-4, CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, FL-16, FL-22, IL-8, IN-8, IN-9, IA-1, KY-4, MN-6, NM-1, NY-24, OH-15, OH-18, PA-7, PA-8, TX-22, WA-8). In each of these races, they have spent at least $300,000, but as much as $1.1 million.
In some of these races, they might be believing their own press releases and not the cold reality. They continue to pump money into Weldon in the PA-7 (well over $1 million now) and his situation seems to get worse every day. $563,000 has gone into the IL-8, but it seems clear now that Bean is going back. $617,000 has gone into the OH-15 and $708,000 has gone into the PA-6. I have not seen any indication that there is traction there for Republicans.
Let's not kid ourselves. The NRCC has some experienced political strategists who know what they are doing. But as I look at their goal (going 38-14 on the most important races in the country) and as I look at their actions, I don't see how they can keep their House majority.
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