Democracy Corps (PDF):
Democrats now lead the named-congressional horserace by 13 points, a surge in support that takes the Democrats up to 54 percent of the vote and doubles their lead from two weeks ago. For the first time, the Democrats' lead in the named-ballot is above the generic lead, suggesting the candidates are adding to the Democratic trend.
In the U.S. Senate, the Democrats have also made gains in the Senate races, noting that in the competitive Republican-held Senate seats, the named-Democrats are up by 10 points (52 to 42 percent).
There will be a wave on November 7th, with the Iraq issue critical to its strength. Strategically, we think Democrats need to assume this is inevitable and then focus on the few things that take the election into more and more districts and states. The Democrats need to talk about the change they will bring, starting with major efforts to achieve energy independence.
Iraq is the main driver of the meltdown for the Republicans, underscoring Tom Friedman's commentary yesterday that we may be witnessing "the jihadist equivalent of the Tet offensive." The electoral crash has been accompanied by a surge in anger over Iraq, reaching epic proportions: only a quarter of likely voters now have positive feelings about the waequivalent of the Tet offensive." The electoral crash has been accompanied by a surge in anger over Iraq, reaching epic proportions: only a quarter of likely voters now have positive feelings about the war.
ARIZONA (Senate)
SurveyUSA. 10/14-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.6% (9/16-18 results)
Kyl (R) 48 (48)
Pederson (D) 43 (43)
Rasmussen. 10/15. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/18 results)
Kyl (R) 51 (50)
Pederson (D) 42 (39)
I detect a faint pulse on this race.
COLORADO (4th CD)
SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4.4% (9/18-20 results)
Musgrave (R) 48 (46)
Paccione (D) 38 (42)
I've heard ominous rumblings about this race and these numbers seem to confirm that things might not be going well.
FLORIDA (Governor)
Mason-Dixon. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/20-22 results)
Crist (R) 50 (51)
Davis (D) 39 (36)
ILLINOIS (Governor)
Rasmussen. 10/15. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/7 results)
Blagojevich (D) 44 (48)
Topinka (R) 36 (36)
INDIANA (2nd CD)
Research 2000 for the South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/15-17 results)
Chocola (R) 45 (42)
Donnelly (D) 50 (50)
IOWA (Governor)
Research 2000 for KCCI-TV. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/11-12 results)
Culver (D) 49 (48)
Nussle (R) 44 (43)
MAINE (Governor)
Rasmussen. 10/17. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/18 results)
Baldacci (D) 44 (44)
Woodcock (R) 34 (39)
With Granholm's recent surge in Michigan, Baldacci is now the most endangered Democratic incumbent at the governor, house, or senate levels.
MARYLAND (Governor, Senate)
SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (9/17-19 results)
Governor
Ehrlich (R) 43 (44)
O'Malley (D) 49 (51)
Senate (open)
Cardin (D) 46 (47)
Steele (R) 46 (48)
NEW YORK (20th CD)
Sienna College (PDF). 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (No trend lines)
Sweeney (R) 53
Gillibrand (D) 34
This poll should temper some of the giddiness over numbers showing Democrats sweeping out most of the GOP dreck in New York state. It doesn't mean that this poll is right and the others showing Gillibrand leading are wrong. It just means that polls are polls, and oftentimes they are wrong.
WASHINGTON (8th CD)
SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4.7% (9/24-26 results)
Reichert (R) 50 (50)
Burner (D) 47 (48)
This race appears static and neck and neck. GOTV will determine the winner. If you are in the Seattle area, you've got your mission -- get Burner over the finish line first.
WISCONSIN (Governor)
St. Norbert College for Wisconsin Public Radio. 10/9-16. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Doyle (D) 51
Green (R) 38