What is most interesting to me is not that the poll finds the senate race in a dead heat or that O'Malley is ahead by 6 points.
What I find interesting is looking at the cross tabs and seeing what groups are supporting what candidates. How are blacks polling? Whites? Independants? Young people? etc.
According to the SUSA poll:
Only 13% of African Americans polled support Ehrlich.
But 25% of the African Americans polled support Steele.
And 9% of the African Americans polled said that they were Undecided in both races. That's high compared to whites who are only 2% undecided.
Then look at whites:
A whopping 53% of whites polled support Steele and 53% of whites support Ehrlich. More than one out of two whites in Maryland told SUSA that they were planning to vote GOP. Doesn't that seem a bit excessive? Hard to believe.
Moderates who refuse to identify with either party:
These swing voters are polling in favor of Steel at 49%. That seems higher then it should be in a blue state like ours.
Ehrlich is only pulling 43% of the Independents. He seems to have lost his 'base' from 2002.
Age isn't so telling, imho:
Younger voters are leaning toward Zeese at 9%. They support Cardin and Steele at 43% each.
The 65 plus overwhemingly go for Cardin at 55%. Only 41% for Steele.
But Steele out polls Cardin among 34-64 year olds 49% to 45%/46%.
What if you compare the GOP candidates and compare the crosstabs beteen Ehrlich and Steele respectively:
They both get 53% of the whites polled; 85-87% of GOP; 16-19% of Dems; and 43 - 49% of Independants. But Steele gets 25% of blacks polled and Ehrlich only 13%. That's the difference. Could it be that the Dems and Independents who are crossing over in this poll are African American?
I never thought that the traditional conservative soccer mom would go for Steele. But it seems according to this poll that some of them are. They look like they may have abandonned Bobby Haircut for an even prettier boy. Most of Steele's crossover vote is probabaly African American Dems and Independents.