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Before I start let me say that I recognize SUSA may be an outlier and/or a bad poll.  I looked for other crosstabs to compare and will keep looking but most sites require registration.

What is most interesting to me is not that the poll finds the senate race in a dead heat or that O'Malley is ahead by 6 points.

What I find interesting is looking at the cross tabs and seeing what groups are supporting what candidates.  How are blacks polling? Whites? Independants? Young people? etc.

http://www.surveyusa.com/...

According to the SUSA poll:

Only 13% of African Americans polled support Ehrlich.

But 25% of the African Americans polled support Steele.  

And 9% of the African Americans polled said that they were Undecided in both races. That's high compared to whites who  are only 2% undecided.

Then look at whites:

A whopping 53% of whites polled support Steele and 53% of whites support Ehrlich.  More than one out of two whites in Maryland told SUSA that they were planning to vote GOP.  Doesn't that seem a bit excessive?  Hard to believe.

Moderates who refuse to identify with either party:

These swing voters are polling in favor of Steel at 49%.  That seems higher then it should be in a blue state like ours.

Ehrlich is only pulling 43% of the Independents.  He seems to have lost his 'base' from 2002.

Age isn't so telling, imho:

Younger voters are leaning toward Zeese at 9%.  They support Cardin and Steele at 43% each.

The 65 plus overwhemingly go for Cardin at 55%.  Only 41% for Steele.

But Steele out polls Cardin among 34-64 year olds 49% to 45%/46%.

What if you compare the GOP candidates and compare the crosstabs beteen Ehrlich and Steele respectively:

They both get 53% of the whites polled; 85-87% of GOP; 16-19% of Dems; and 43 - 49% of Independants.  But Steele gets 25% of blacks polled and Ehrlich only 13%.  That's the difference.  Could it be that the Dems and Independents who are crossing over in this poll are African American?

I never thought that the traditional conservative soccer mom would go for Steele.  But it seems according to this poll that some of them are. They look like they may have abandonned Bobby Haircut for an even prettier boy.  Most of Steele's crossover vote is probabaly African American Dems and Independents.

Originally posted to baltimoremom on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 03:00 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  this is an outliar (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    howie14

    The last Survey USA poll a month ago actually had Steele Ahead. just about every other poll of any credibility since then has had Cardin ahead, often considerably so.

  •  well, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    count, Sharon in MD

    the undecided black vote seems critical.

  •  these numbers IMO are false (0+ / 0-)

    this are phoney results paid I am sure by the

    republicnas.

    Maryland is 3-1 democrat.  3-1!!!!!!

    Steele is a piece of work that will be completely ineffective because he has no experience and his politics are destructive to people of maryland.

    The black community will be making a terrible mistake if they support Steele.

    The machines are fixed if the republicans are floating these phone polling results.

  •  undecided black vote??? undiced about what? (0+ / 0-)

    undecided about their future, undecided about
    their ability to garner support from other democrats in the future.

    The balck vote will stand with those who stood with them.

    •  Undecided about whether they've been taken ... (4+ / 0-)

      for granted by the MD Democratic Party.  There has been a LOT of comment in the Black community about the fact there were Blacks on the Democratic ballot for both Senate and Attorney General, and that they both lost.  

      Mfume carried Baltimore City and Prince Georges County (both of which are majority Black) by big margins, but he lost in all of the predominantly White counties by even bigger margins.  Not only that, but even though Mfume was in the race long before Cardin, the Democratic establishment generally supported Cardin (and the White Democratic establishment overwhelmingly supported him).

      The Attorney General race was more of a regional affair, with Baltimore City and County going for Stuart Simms, and the suburban DC conties going for Doug Gansler, but even there, the results were pretty jarring.  Simms carried Baltimore City easily, but Baltimore County was a lot closer than I would have anticipated, and Gansler carried all of the other suburban Baltimore counties.

      Steele has gotten quite a few endorsement from prominent Blacks, including from Billy Murphy, whose family owns the Baltimore Afro-American newspaper and has been prominent in civil rights work for two or three generations, from Cathy Hughes, who owns the biggest group of Black-oriented radio stations in the country (including major ones in both Baltimore and Washington, DC), from one of Kweisi Mfume's sons, and from hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons, among others.  I suspect he'll also get the support of a surprising number of Black clergy.

      I've been saying for a while that this one isn't in the bag at all, and the fact that Steele has had a very clevery media campaign (almost totally non-substantive, but that's the way he wants it), while Cardin's commercials have both been fewer than Steele's (at least in the Baltimore area), and much less effective (at least to my eyes).

      I desperately hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't be all that surprised to see Steele pull this one out.

      "Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither liberty nor security." -Ben Franklin

      by leevank on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 03:43:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Billy Murphy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        baltimoremom

        has been very explicit that he supports Steele to sent a message that Dems need to take Blacks seriously. I respect the man, he is very articulate in making his case, I disagree with him, and he makes me crazy.

      •  it woudl be a huge mistake for the black comm (0+ / 0-)

        to vote for steele to send a message. That is a 'suicide message' and is not supported by any kind of smart politicking. Turning your back on a proven democrat to vote for a person who turned his back on the community doesn't make sense.

        in re Mfumi, First of all, how can the black community support a candidate like Mfumi?  He is a guy whose conduct contradicted his message. He spend big bucks to tell everybody  he had a tough time coming up.  I think he also tried to explain away his children he fathered out of wedlock before he was age 25.  Then what happens, he gets in hot water at Naacp with more than a few women, caused dissent and is asked to leave. Same story but 30 years later.

        Further, Mfumi did not demonstrate he had the breadth of understanding on the issues facing Maryland.  He just did not convince.  

        What makes anyone think he a better candidate than Ben Cardin? What makes Blacks think it was other than a performace issue in not choosing Mfumi?  I kind of resent that because blacks can and do win in maryland.  
        Ben Cardin is the Democrat candidate and decidedly more competent with a long history of service delivery to all marylanders black or white.
        I think the black community should join the white community and not turn its back on our common interests. Relationships are built over time and lat over trouble.

        As for Simms, I voted for him because I knew of his record but he got started way too late for name recognition.  If he is interested in public office again, he needs to get his name out again but early.   Had he started earlier I think he might have won.  

        Remember, Ike Leggert is set to become the next county exectutive in Montgo and not because the county is majority black.  
        The black community needs to rethink the strategy because it may prove very costly in the long run

        •  It's spelled Mfume, not Mfumi (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          baltimoremom

          How can the Black community support Mfume?  For the same reason my wife and I did, and we're not Black.  He was our Congressman, he was a very good one, and he was a fighter for progressive causes.

          You say that you resent the attitude because "blacks can and do win in Maryland," but the fact is that the only Black who has ever won a statewide primary is one Michael Steele.  The only Blacks who have been elected to Congress have been from predominantly Black districts, and I'm not even aware of any Blacks in the State Senate or the House of Delegates who aren't from predominantly Black districts.

          "Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither liberty nor security." -Ben Franklin

          by leevank on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 08:21:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  your logic is not politics (0+ / 0-)

            I hardly think the black community can claim Steele as a victory, because he won statewide office for the  first time as a republican  I cannot see one thing he has done for anyone aside from himself, let alone the larger black community.

            Politics is really about performance and Mfume did
            not have the record of performance needed for a senate seat.  It is not useful, and, in fact, hurts the black community to claim racism when the majority of voters put performace not race first.

            Again, I will point out, that it benefits republicans to make claims of racism against the dems and they have used this same argument over and over again by using blacks & whites to repreat it to the community.   It is no surprise that businessmen, black or white, will play ball with the people in power and repeat these lies; but I can see with my own eyes how well the republicans have treated the black community ( Katrina).  Who are you kidding?

            PS. Using black clergymen to support a republican is a very old trick. how do you think they get that support?
            I don't know if you are white nor care, it does not lend any support to your argument. Mfume was just not the guy for the job.

        •  One more point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          baltimoremom

          For a white Democrat (which I assume you are) to say to Black Democrats that something is a "suicide message" and "not smart" is exactly the problem.  As for your personal comments about Mfume, everybody in his district, and everybody who paid attention to politics in Maryland, was well aware of the children that he fathered when he was in his teens and early 20's, and hardly anybody cared.  And I don't know where you get your information that he got in hot water "with more than a few women" at the NAACP, since that wasn't even alleged in any of the reports that I saw, and none of the charges at the NAACP were ever proven (except for the fact that he briefly dated somebody who worked there, which he admitted wasn't smart), and which was apparently resented by some other women there.

          "Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither liberty nor security." -Ben Franklin

          by leevank on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 08:33:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  info on web & problems then problems now (0+ / 0-)

            that was my point. He has not resolved
            his personal problems.  He has been out of
            office for 10 years and as far as I am concerned out of touch.

            He simply is not the best candidate for for the Maryland senate seat.

  •  Every time... (0+ / 0-)

    ...SUSA publishes one of these nutty polls, we start spreading the GOP talking points for them. I'm all for being prepared and understanding the enemy's intentions, but to actually take their propaganda, assume it to be true when only one polster has ever registered the trend at all, and help them spread it is a bad idea.

     
    I voted Mfume in the primary, but I still know that Ben Cardin has spent his career serving ALL his constituents well regardless of race, sex or any other factor. He is working hard for every vote and will win on Nov. 7.  I'm a lot more worried about the Guv race than this one.

    Interestingly, no one is diarying the equally disreputable Zogby poll which came out showing Cardin up 8.4 percent. Although you can never trust Zogby at all, the poll is closer to what every trustworthy pollster has found in Maryland so far.

    As I said in another thread, I didn't believe Zogby when they had Steele in the 30s last month and I haven't believed SUSA yet.

    Also, outside of this poll, there is no evidence that blacks are bolting the party.  We worried about it in 2002, and it didn't happen.  Instead, Ehrlich blew us out in the Baltimore suburbs.

    If someone can find a Gonzales, M-D, or Rasmussen poll showing mass defections to the GOP, I'll listen.  

    •  i will find more crosstabs and (0+ / 0-)

      we will see if it is gop talking points or a crisis in the md dem party. OR BOTH.

      •  One would expect... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        baltimoremom
        ...that over time alliances will shift and the major parties will have to find new combinations to achieve 50+1.  Just as the rank and file union worker moved to Reagan, the so-called "monolithic black vote" will one day split from the Democrats.  Most of this will be caused by an increase in the number of African Americans who share the GOP's economic vision.  Parts of the GOP coalition will splinter over time as well.

        I just choose not to take the only poll showing that our coalition is ending this year so seriously when several other polls taken at about the same time show no such thing.

        The only concern I have is the habit of Maryland in being completely out-of-step with the country mood-wise.  We held fast with the Dems at times when the rest of the country was shifting to GOP majority.  It would be almost fitting that this state would go GOP in a year when the Dems are poised to sweep.

        Still, it's not happening.  Both these races will be close because Ehrlich is an established incumbent and Steele has much higher name recognition than the usual "Pipkin" who runs in Maryland.  They are good candidates.  So are ours, by the way.  Barring breaking news changing the picture, O'Malley and Cardin will hang on.

        I don't believe that the color of the candidate matters more than what he believes, and I don't believe a significant number of black Democrats think that either.

        Not being black, however, I could be wrong.

        •  NOW I'm concerned (0+ / 0-)

          I just finished listening to Brian Morton's weekly news roundup on WYPR.  Brian was joined by two other African American journalists (sorry, I was late tuning in and missed who they were).

          Well, they mentioned the SUSA poll as though it were the only poll we've seen this year and proceeded to spend the hour declaring Steele's campaign brilliant and Cardin's as on the ropes.

          For a moment I thought I was listening to Ron Smith and his cohorts at WBAL.

          Late in the hour, they did say that the MTP debate will be crucial for both candidates.

          Of course, during the hour they received the mandatory snark call from a GOPer declaring that for the good of affirmative action Cardin should have dropped out of the primary and that to change both politics in Maryland AND the Republican Party, African American have to vote for Steele.  They gave him some lame answer about all politicians wanting to run for higher office.    

          If we can't even get a fair hearing for our side on WYPR, this race could turn south in a hurry.

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