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I just heard this poll on the radio while I was driving to work and I almost drove off of the road.

Sen. Joe Lieberman has increased his lead over Democratic challenger Ned Lamont to 17 percentage points, according to the first Quinnipiac University poll taken since the two faced off in a debate earlier this week.

How can that many people still support this man?

Lieberman, who is running as an independent after losing the Aug. 8 Democratic primary to Lamont, leads the Greenwich businessman 52 percent to 35 percent among likely voters in the poll released Friday. Republican Alan Schlesinger trailed with 6 percent and 7 percent were undecided.

I know the energy in this race seemed to peter out after the primary, but I've been making phone calls for Ned every week since July and I just don't see it.  The committed volunteers, the same faces week after week spending their free time working to get Ned elected; I want to put on a tin foil hat and say this poll is rigged.

The debate Monday was the first time Lieberman and Lamont had faced off since the August primary. The poll showed that among those who watched the debate or read or heard about, only 3 percent said it changed their mind about their choice.

"Ned Lamont needed to score a knockout in the debates to catch Sen. Joseph Lieberman, but he apparently didn't lay a glove on him," poll director Douglas Schwartz said.

I thought this poll was taken after the 1st debate?

Anyway, I just wanted to get this out there; I need to get to work and I'm completely dispirited and depressed.

Originally posted to CTLiberal on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:33 AM PDT.

Poll

Is there still hope for Ned to win the election?

14%33 votes
21%48 votes
5%13 votes
18%41 votes
7%17 votes
1%3 votes
16%36 votes
15%34 votes

| 225 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  This is the poll blogged about yesterday (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    paradocs, JanL, CTLiberal

    It was taken before the first debate. Don't worry about it. Better news is coming!

    Radarlady

  •  title suggestion (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CTLiberal

    change "by" to "to"

    Neil Cavuto is a GOP circle-jerking necrophiliac? (-6.88, -6.15)

    by guyermo on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:36:04 AM PDT

    •  Done thanks (0+ / 0-)

      And thanks radarlady; I need help today as I've always been confident in this race, my confidence faded this morning.  Maybe it's the rain here.

      Shall I delete this diary if it's already been blogged about?

      The spirit of resistance to government is so valuable on certain occasions, that I wish it always to be kept alive. -Thomas Jefferson

      by CTLiberal on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:39:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If Connecticut chooses to re-elect (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    zenbowl, UniC, CTLiberal

    Liebreman based on his whining and crying...maybe they deserve to only get 67 cents out of every dollar they give the federal government.

    •  They would deserve alot less than that. nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      grayslady
    •  Lieberman must lose in order to secure (0+ / 0-)

      his committee positions.

      With him in place, BushCo has a foil.  Without him, they're more likely to go down in flames and be immobilized faster.

      ...so, unfortunately, we can't simply let CT fuck itself over, 'cuz we'd all be getting it.

      And I suspect you'll agree, you really don't want a kiss from the Lieberfolk while they're nailing us all...

      ;)

      Never, never brave me, nor my fury tempt:
        Downy wings, but wroth they beat;
      Tempest even in reason's seat.

      by GreyHawk on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 06:14:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My crystal ball is cloudy on this one (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CTLiberal

    The campaign has lost coverage in the national media except in passing comments. NPR was all over the primary, as was MSM, but Connecticut has gone out of focus in MSM.

    Maybe coverage increased because of the novelty and the chance to split the Democrats, which served MSM interests. Now that Lamont has secured his primary victory, interest has wained.

    It seems to be up to Connecticut voters at this point. Lamont has garnered some good national endorsements. Is the DNC providing adequate instate support?

    To none will we sell, to none deny or delay, right or justice. Magna Carta 1215

    by 4Freedom on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:41:08 AM PDT

    •  Lamont (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      4Freedom, Tipsy McStagger

      Lamont made a major blunder when he went on vacation RIGHT after the big primary win.  Just mindboggling how many times these guys shoot themselves in the foot.

      mr republican, is that a flag in your pocket or are you just glad to see my son?

      by pissedpatriot on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 06:09:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I really don't think (0+ / 0-)

        three days in Maine sank his candidacy. I do think he should have been visible right after the win, and the vacation was a poor decision, but it wasn't a determining factor. Continuing the primary themes in the context of general election, on the other hand, that was a major fuck up. And all the fawning Kos and others do over Lamont's cadre of anti-Beltway consultants won't change the fact that they dropped the ball.

        W's First Veto: not for tax cuts for the rich, pork barrel spending and earmarks, or civil liberties violations, but for stem cell research.

        by Red Sox on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 06:17:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He blew (0+ / 0-)

          He Blew millions and millions of dollars of freee exposure, for those few days he would of been the NEWs, he would of been shown as a "winner", instead he threw all that exposure away. Sorry things like that do sway elections.

          I agree also that his election campaign is being run pretty poorly.  How you can allow republicnas to vote for a liberal and not make them aware of it is beyond me.

          If I were advising him, I would have created a off shoot non affiliated group named "Gay and Lesbian Pro Life for Lieberman Org."  And would of sent flyers ( complete with hand holding pictures) to all republicans thanking them for their support of Lieberman and his liberal values.  That is the type of stuff that wins elections.

          mr republican, is that a flag in your pocket or are you just glad to see my son?

          by pissedpatriot on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 06:31:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The vacation is symbolic of (0+ / 0-)

          Lamont's campaign after the primary. They had Lieberman on the ropes and then they slacked off. Lamont himself had admitted that he thought people would talk to Joe and get him to drop out. I don't for the life of me understand the rationale behind a multimillionaire getting beaten to the airwaves by a candidate without a party and fairly  modest (for a senator) personal wealth.

  •  saw first Lamont ad yesterday during Mets game (0+ / 0-)

    kinda depressed all over.

    Help make NYC Republican free; support Steve Harrison NY-13 against Vito Fossella.

    by DrSteveB on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:42:40 AM PDT

  •  Zogby/WSJ says 6 points (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CTLiberal

    A poll came out the day before that had Lieberman up 49-43. Remain calm.

    If you're after getting the honey, Then you don't go killing all the bees - Joe Strummer

    by joejoejoe on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:46:02 AM PDT

  •  Hmmm... there's no sugarcoating it, the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tipsy McStagger, Dartagnan

    trendlines aren't good

    'A similar poll released Sept. 28 showed Lieberman with a 10-point lead.'

    and Lamont doesn't has a solid lock on Dems, much less Indy's (which are the majority in CT, no? 44%), and R's:

    "The poll suggested that Lieberman's support among Republicans and independent voters was substantial.

    'Lieberman leads Lamont 70 to 9 percent among likely Republican voters, with 18 percent for Schlesinger, and 58 to 36 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 55 to 36 percent.'

    See where the trendlines are next week...

    'If Kos hadn't changed the rating protocol, I'd "3" you upside the head -- old school.' PBJ Diddy

    by PhillyGal on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:47:14 AM PDT

    •  Oh, some sunshine (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CTLiberal

      saw on the news yestereday, that Lamont pumped more of his own $$, and he's gonna be running ads starting next week every half hour Joe-bashing.

      I'm waiting for polls from the week of October 30th.

      'If Kos hadn't changed the rating protocol, I'd "3" you upside the head -- old school.' PBJ Diddy

      by PhillyGal on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:51:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A week is a lifetime in politics, so they say (5+ / 0-)

        This Q poll had Lamont up 13 points the week before the primary and the final margin was 4 points.  Look at the swing in that Tom Reynolds poll from being down 13 points right after Foleygate to being back in the lead.  How does that make sense?  

        At the same time that the media is telling us that Democrats are still vulnerable to the GOP's superior "Get Out the Vote" operations, Lieberman supposedly doesn't need a political organization at all.  Is that credible when he's depending on the votes of people who have voted against him in past elections?  Lieberman is on his own, the Republicans have only been able to give him rhetorical support about what a national treasure he is; they're not doing an education campaign to tell people they need to vote for Gov. Rell and then go 5 lines down and 3 over to find Lieberman.

        We'll see.  Its one of those things where you think you have to be centered in your own life more than anything because you can't have the foggiest idea what goes on in other people's heads.  Having been a prime instigator to get us into this Iraq mess, Lieberman's rationale for staying in office is that he has the "experience" that voters should have confidence in.  And a lot of people buy it.  

    •  What are these 36% thinking? (0+ / 0-)

      Don't they see that Lieberman is NOT A DEMOCRAT?

      -6.5, -7.59. Annoy a Conservative: Think for yourself.

      by DrWolfy on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 07:21:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Didn't I hear that much... (0+ / 0-)

    ...of the Quinnipac polling done for this survey was done BEFORE the first debate this week between the three. I suspect what will happen is that the Republican Schlesinger will carry about 10-15 percent of the vote (maybe a bit more), enough (I think) to deflate Lieberman and hand the Senate seat to Lamont.

  •  Qunipiac poller called me yesterday (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Thistime, srkp23

    Interesting note. The poller told me that I was the ONLY one she had questioned who actually said they watched the debate.

    So I suspect the group that said the debate effected their vote was tiny.

    fact does not require fiction for balance

    by mollyd on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:50:47 AM PDT

  •  Shit. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hester, grayslady, GreyHawk, CTLiberal, DrWolfy

    No offense, but I would've hoped that CT voters were a bit smarter than that.

    I guess not.

    Deny My Freedom
    "Inconvenient truths do not go away just because they are not seen." -Al Gore

    by PsiFighter37 on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:51:16 AM PDT

  •  Lieberman Owes Shlesinger (0+ / 0-)

    70% support among GOP. When calcualting whether a primary challenge to Lieberman would have been successful, one could not have anticipated the GOP offering up a candidate who would be competing with the Green Party for numbers.

    Good Government. Traffic Lights Aren't All That Weird. Vote Democratic!

    by HL Mungo on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 05:55:03 AM PDT

  •  And Lieberman becomes ... (0+ / 0-)

    the most powerful man in the Senate.  

    There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured with what is right with America. -- Bill Clinton

    by ThirstyGator on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 06:00:12 AM PDT

  •  It's over (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hester, johnnygunn

    The debates couldn't possibly make this much of a difference. And Schlessinger is in no position to capitalize upon  his strong debate showing, like Perot did in 92. Time to move on and worry about protecting Menendez, Cardin and taking out Talent and Corker.

  •  B-b-but wait until the debates sink in (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hester, Tipsy McStagger

    then we'll have real movement. Ned will win then!!!

    Ned Lamont shit the bed in the general election. That's on him alone and whatever stupid a-hole thought that the general electorate gave a flying fuck about Joe L.'s party disloyalty.

    In terms of raw numbers, this doesn't really hurt our Senate caucusing, but this whole situaiotn may very well cost us all three of the GOP-held House seats. It'll be a while before I forgive Joe Lieberman.

    W's First Veto: not for tax cuts for the rich, pork barrel spending and earmarks, or civil liberties violations, but for stem cell research.

    by Red Sox on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 06:09:04 AM PDT

    •  I won't forgive him either (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hester, johnnygunn

      But its time to face facts. When was the last time you saw a candidate close a 17 point gap with less than three weeks to go? I can't think of one, and if it ever happened, I imagine its because the front runner was rocked by some really bad scandal and/or shot himself in the foot with a horrible remark, like that idiot that ran against Ann Richards.Lieberman's been around forever in CT, so its not like there a bombshell waiting to hit him and he's too bland and cautious to step on it in a meaningful way.

      •  I face the facts (0+ / 0-)

        This one's a loss. I agree with you. At least it doesn't hurt us in terms of the caucus.

        And the guy Ann Richards beat--Clayton Williams--wasn't that far ahead that late in the game. And his stupidity wasn't even a bombshell--Richards just made a brilliant spot that highlighted what a jackass he was.

        W's First Veto: not for tax cuts for the rich, pork barrel spending and earmarks, or civil liberties violations, but for stem cell research.

        by Red Sox on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 06:18:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wouldn't count on it (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          hester, Petronella

          not hurting us in terms of the caucus.

          Rove & company aren't throwing all their weight behind Lieberman for nothing.

          "When watchdogs, bird dogs, and bull dogs morph into lap dogs, lazy dogs, or yellow dogs, the nation is in trouble." - Ted Stannard

          by jrooth on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 07:12:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Rove & Co. (0+ / 0-)

            are far better served with Lieberman in the Dem caucus, as it gives their horseshit the air of bipartisanship.

            That said, I'd rather not take the risk and just elect Ned Lamont, but at this point, he and I have about the same chance of getting elected to the Senate.

            W's First Veto: not for tax cuts for the rich, pork barrel spending and earmarks, or civil liberties violations, but for stem cell research.

            by Red Sox on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 07:14:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Lieberman will do one of three things (0+ / 0-)

          after the election which are both bad for Dems.

          1. Switch to the Republican party (officially)
          1. Continue to be a "moderate" vote for the Republicans
          1. Take over as Sec of Defense when Rummy resigns.

          All bad...  All bad...

          Why don't the CT Dems see this?  

          -6.5, -7.59. Annoy a Conservative: Think for yourself.

          by DrWolfy on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 07:19:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Do Not Worry about Coat-Tail Effects (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CTLiberal
        Voters in CT split votes like crazy. On my street we have voters who support Diane Farrell for Congress but split on Lamont and Lieberman. Dems are also split on GOP Gov. Rell. I have lived here for 40 years and cannot figure this place out. I got polled by the Q people on Tuesday night.

        There was a signal loss of momentum on Lamont's part right after his primary win. It seems like all the fanatics who were keen on seeing Leiberman lose the primary have disappeared. I can't believe how willingly ignorant CT voters are to send Lierberman back as their senator.

      •  Ned just needs to get on his team... (0+ / 0-)

        the guy who led Saxby Chambliss to victory over Max Cleland! Ugh...

  •  Its the old ladies fault. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    grayslady, JanL, MNW

    Joe stronghold support are probably the old ladies that regards joe as some kind of saint that cant do nothing wrong, and to joe's credit, he doesnt have no ethical problem, therefore, those people wont play partisanship politics eventhought they 're all democrats.

    Also, i remember ready mydd and the blogger stated that bad news was coming but the upcoming poll wont include post debate shift because it was taking before the elction or most of it took place before the first debate.

    I smell somthing fishy about the Q poll and im wondering whether its not rigged in joe's favors.Also, i remember the blogger on mydd stating the next day that the Qpoll wont be coming on its original scheduled day and it would come out tommorow...i wonder what caused them to delay it?, could it be that they wanted people to believe that did took the poll after the debate because this poll would have been meaningless if it had been taken before 2 debates.

    Also, noticed how they are gloating for joe liberman and telling us how ned didnt lay a glove on him and how schlesinger is pulling off ned's republicans instead of joe? how can this be?...i just dont trust the Q poll.

  •  The Poll Itself (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SheriffBart, CTLiberal

    Is right here. Here's what kills Lamont:

    In this latest survey, Lieberman leads Lamont 70 - 9 percent among likely Republican voters, with 18 percent for Schlesinger, and 58 - 32 - 5 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 55 - 36 percent.

    That's barely better than the primary in terms of what he's gained.  Lieberman has convinced voters that his experience matters more than the issues.

  •  Lamont no chnace if GOP runs at 7 percent (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MNW

    Lamont has no chance if Schlesinger is at 7 percent. Those GOP votes go to Lieberman.

    All the republicans in CT are voting for Lieberman. When you get the Dems who continue to vote for Joe, it makes it impossible for lamont to overcome.

    I also don't like the National Dems thumbing thier nose at this race. They want joe to win, they just don't say it publicly.

    •  It's not that they want Joe (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B

      it's that they only count numbers. Joe or Ned still equals one Democratic seat. The math is different in TN, VA, OH, PA, MT, RI, etc. Further, our candidates in those other states aren't as able to write themselves a gazillion dollar check. So they write off CT as unimportant. Is it unfair to Ned and Connecticut Dems? Absolutely. But politically, is it the right move to make? Unfortunately, yes.

      W's First Veto: not for tax cuts for the rich, pork barrel spending and earmarks, or civil liberties violations, but for stem cell research.

      by Red Sox on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 06:34:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Fuck it (0+ / 0-)

    the people get the govt they deserve for good or bad.  If CT voters can't figure out that the post 9-11 Joe isn't the Joe they originally elected then they deserve to get 6 more years of Joefailure.

    Tired of the lies? That makes 60% of us!

    by Bill O Rights on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 06:45:53 AM PDT

    •  He IS the original Joe they elected (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hester, MNW, CTLiberal

      Disloyal to the party. Sanctimonius. Whiney. Above reproach. In bed with the GOP, even though they kick his core beliefs in the teeth. Stabbing his friends in the back. (how ya feeling Bill?). This is the same ol' Joe to me.

      •  his voting record isn't that bad (0+ / 0-)

        he definitely votes party lines more often than not.

        Last I checked he was still around 75% in voting with dems.  Not a true liberal but a liberal nonetheless, at least on most issues.

        I'm not a CT voter so I didn't even give a shit about Joe until Gore chose him as his running mate.  If I had to theorize I'd say he is pissed at dems for showing him so little support in his presidential campaigns so when he gets a chance to stick the needle in our eye on the legislation he knows we care about most: he does it.  Like voting with the GOP on budgets, the Patriot Act, Kill Habeus Act, thinking that hetero's have a monopoly on love and matrimony.  

        But like I said.  I don't know Joe other than having seen his vote rating while checking out my homestate congressionals...who by and large suck as bad as Joe.  If he's always been a DINO then I apologize for the error.  And if the voting record is not as I stated then I shall endeavour to reeducate myself on the subject.  I'm sure he might be closer to 50 since his primary loss or even decidely GOP.

        Tired of the lies? That makes 60% of us!

        by Bill O Rights on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 12:12:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Lieberman gets: (0+ / 0-)
    1. Substantial support among Democrats, not all of which are liberals
    1. Majority of Independents, which tend to be moderate or moderate-to-liberal (exactly Lieberman's niche)
    1. Vast majority of Republicans, who, as far as i know, tend to be moderate or moderate-conservative in CT

    Result? Majority...

  •  Polls...schmolls (4+ / 0-)

    I've no faith whatsoever in what a poll says.

    Especially when I read stuff like this: "Ned Lamont needed to score a knockout in the debates to catch Sen. Joseph Lieberman, but he apparently didn't lay a glove on him," poll director Douglas Schwartz said.

    In my opinion, that statement by the poll director is completely laced with bias. It sounds like something the campaign manager for Lieberman would say...not a non-partisan comment at all.

    Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgment that something else is more important than fear. - Ambrose Redmoon

    by MNW on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 07:07:50 AM PDT

  •  CANVASSING ON SATURDAY (0+ / 0-)

    I'm working for the lamont campaing and there are 17 canvassing events tomorrow in state of Connecticut. It better work. I'm moving to Massachusetts if we have to be stuck we Joe for six more years. Atleast, Connecticut democrats have Chris Dodd to proud of and the republicans can't name him thier favorite son. If both Joe Courtney and Ned Lamont lose, we can officially make Connecticut the newest red state. Our state hasn't had a democratic govenor in over two decades...uggggh.  

  •  Canvassing Saturday (0+ / 0-)

    I'm working for the lamont campaign and there are 17 canvassing events going on tomorrow in the state of Connecticut. It better work. I'm moving to Massachusetts if we have to be stuck with Joe for six more years. Atleast, Connecticut democrats have Chris Dodd to proud of and the republicans can't name him thier favorite son. If both Joe Courtney and Ned Lamont lose, we can officially make Connecticut the newest red state. Our state hasn't had a democratic govenor in over two decades...uggggh.  

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