After running through the House polls on www.pollster.com, I noticed a possible trend. It seems that in the House races the Democrats may have peaked in September. Let's take a quick look:
Colorado 4
10/15 (Survey USA) Musgrave - 48 Paccione - 38
10/3 (Mason Dixon) Musgrave - 46 Paccione - 36
9/26(R-internal) Musgrave - 36 Paccione - 43
9/24(D-internal) Musgrave - 42 Paccione - 42
9/18 (Survey USA) Musgrave - 46 Paccione - 42
8/27 (RT Srat.) Musgrave - 41 Paccione - 47
8/13 (survey USA) Musgrave - 46 Paccione - 42
Colorado 5
10/16 (SurveyUSA) Lamborn - 51 Fawcett - 38
10/10 (internal-R) Lamborn - 49 Fawcett - 32
10/3 (Mason-Dixon) Lamborn - 37 Fawcett - 37
Colorado 7
10/8 (RT Strat.) O'Donnell - 47 Perlmutter - 47
10/3 (Mason Dixon) O'Donnell - 39 Perlmutter - 45
9/25 (Zogby) O'Donnell - 34 Perlmutter - 45
9/21 (Survey USA) O'Donnell - 37 Perlmutter - 54
8/27 (RT Strat.) O'Donnell - 46 Perlmutter - 48
8/18 (SUrvey USA) O'Donnell - 45 Perlmutter - 45
The numbers show that late August, early September show the high watermarks for the 4th and 7th, with Paccione pulling close and Perlmutter on the verge of pulling away. The early October poll for Fawcett seems to show a peak, but its only in comparison with two others. In recent weeks these three races have tended towards the R. Why is this?
One possibility is that the venerable Colorado ground game is merely regrouping for the final push, which means the movement towards the R in the polls is irrelevant. It could mean that the Colorado blue trend is having some pangs, possibly hitting a snag. In this case it is imperative that we push forward and maximize our potential here.
And finally, it is completely possible that polls in the '06 cycle are so volatile that this is just another manifestation of one of the many twists and turns. Possibly proving this point are the polls for the CO Governor race. The trend toward R is almost non-existent. In fact, Beauprez only pulls in over forty in two polls, both by Zogby.