Looking at the 2004 vote totals for all Congressional races combined (compiled by our buddy Jeff Trandahl of page-gate fame), I was surprised to see a Democratic edge of 1,865,765 votes.
2004 House + Senate vote totals (http://clerk.house.gov/...)
Democrat 97,499,739
Republican 95,633,974
Recent elections, perhaps not so surprising with a larger Republican lead in 02 and a very narrow difference in 00:
2002 totals (http://clerk.house.gov/...)
Democrat 52,601,528
Republican 57,722,254
2000 totals (http://clerk.house.gov/...)
Democrat 83,192,434
Republican 83,475,606
While I am subject to alternating moods of optimism and anxiety with each day's polling, I have no doubt that a Democractic wave in 06 will be reflected in the popular vote. (What remains a concern is whether a broad gain is enough to swing the results in enough individual seats. To use a football analogy, even if we outgain the opponent, will that be reflected in points on the board?)
We need to start repeating that
in 2004 more Americans voted for a Democrat for Congress than a Republican, and regardless of the outcome Nov 7th, that (I expect) even more voted for a Democrat in 2006. Obviously, should we fail to take one/both houses of Congress, a win in the popular vote totals would soften the disappointment and could possibly blunt any Republican triumphalism. But beyond being mere spin, that more Americans vote Democratic speaks to the popularity of Democratic values and unpopularity of Republican values.
What makes this issue important leading up to the election is that being perceived as a winner is a significant factor for many voters, especially low-information voters. These are the people who need to know that in 2004 more Americans voted for a Democrat for Congress than a Republican, and that they are poised to do so again in 2006.
With the White House's public confidence about the election, there is a certain element of gamesmanship here which I think goes to a deeper psychology among the public. Most people want a winner. Any sort of talk about uphill battles and we're behind and so forth may energize the complacent true believer; this, however, is outweighed by turning off the wishy-washy soft supporter who doesn't want to identify himself with the losing side. Basically, the bandwagon effect.
It is time we Democrats, grassroots and elected leaders alike, started acting like winners and let the country know it. While expectations should not outpace reality, and while complacency is an issue where GOTV can swing many races, I am convinced confidence, by itself, will attract a significant number of voters.