Yes, I'm not saying should at this point but will. When scrolling through the lists of competitive seats and I see tossups that rank as the 50th or more seat most likely to flip, then I am going to predict a minimum of 40 House Seats that Democrats will gain in the HOuse. Of course it could end up being closer to 70 (and if people voted the issues it would be) but Rome was not built in a day.
Follow the flip.
For starters, there are only 2 House seats in the country where I think Republicans can gain. They are Iowa 3 and Georgia 12. In this climate Iowa 3 should hold and Georgia 12 is a tossup between Barrow and Burns. At most the GOP gets the 1 in Georgia.
YES (16) Of these 16 you can put at least 15 in the book. I think Dems will get all 16 but we'll count this as +15.
Arizona 8 - Gabrielle Giffords takes over the open seat of Jim Kolbe. The district is moderate, Gifford's opponent is a wingnut.
California 11 - McNerney - This is Richard Pombo's district. Pombo is nuts, an Abramoff crony and Pombo is way too conservative for the district. If there's any seat on the 16 not to turn this is it. But I think it turns.
Colorado 7 - Perlmutter should win this open seat in a Democratic leaning district.
Connecticut 2 - Courtney takes down Simmons in this Democratic district.
Connecticut 4 - The most liberal district in the country held by a Republican. Diane Farrell takes down phony moderate Chris Shays, who showed his true colors with his Ted Kennedy hatred.
Florida 16 - Mahoney - The name Foley is on the ballot. I don't think 50% of the people are going to vote for a child predator although many Republicans seem to have no problem with child predators that have an R attached to their name.
Indiana 2 - Joe Donnelly. I think the GOP realizes this one goes Democratic.
Indiana 8 - Hostetler is insane and a bigot. Ellsworth has led in every poll for months.
New York 24 - Arcuri - This district was held by the last of the liberal republicans Sherwood Boehlert for decades. Arcuri fits the district, the GOP conservative does not.
New York 26 - Jack Davis - Bye Bye Tom Reynolds. Foleygate takes down this wingnut.
North Carolina 11 - Heath Schuler - Great candidate consistently ahead.
Ohio 15 - Mary Jo Kilroy - In a tidal wave, leadership goes down. Deborah Pryce goes down.
Pennsylvania 6 - Lois Murphy - Bye Bye Gerlach. This district is going blue for a long time.
Pennsylvania 7 - Only a Republican like Weldon could criticize a man for getting the best health care available to him for his 5 year old daughter. That's why Joe Sestak wins this one.
Pennsylvania 10 - Don Sherwood choked his mistress. Christopher Carney wins this one.
Texas 22 - Lampson - This is the Delay seat. The write in has no shot.
PROBABLY (10) Of these ten, again Dems should win all ten but I think 8 is a good prediction. Arizona 1 and Pennsylvania 8 are the GOP's best two shots at holds.
Arizona 1 - Ellen Simon. It appears that the incumbent Renzi is about to be indicted and this is a close district. Arizona is a state that could very easily turn blue for the next generation.
Indiana 9 - The dem is the 1 term incumbent and the climate is better for us now than in 2004. Hill should prevail.
Iowa 1 - Braley - A democratic leaning district in a democratic year.
Minnesota 6 - Wetterling is a great candidate, Michelle Bachmann the GOP candidate is the Queen of the American Taliban and a nasty, crazy woman.
New Mexico 1 - Patricia Madrid - This is a polarizing district and Heather Wilson is corrupt and crazy. Polls seem to show Madrid with a slight lead.
New York 19 - John Hall - Sue Kelly is part of the problem. Dems have resurged in NY after years of failed Republican leadership.
North Carolina 8 - Kissell - An example of how a candidate can win when you show people where you stand on the issues and where Republicans stand on the issues. Dems across the country should learn from this campaign.
Ohio 18 - Zack Space - There are still pockets of right wing extremism here but most people in this area are tired of it. Padgett is a Bob Ney crony. All signs point to a Dem pickup.
Pennsylvania 8 - Murphy - This is the tough race against Fitzpatrick but Rendell and Casey should have the coattail effect. I give us about a 66% chance here.
Wisconsin 8 - Kagen - A tossup open seat in a Dem year. Right place, right time.
50-50 (18) Of these 18 again Dems could win all 18 with the national climate but I'll pick 13 because of the way things are trending nationally. If you see Dems winning these seats start counting to 250 House Seats.
Connecticut 5 - Chris Murphy has a great chance and has one of the best ads running. Nancy Johnson is corrupt and out of touch. This district encompasses Waterbury and other conservative cesspools in the state but at least half of the district has normal people. Flip a coin.
Florida 13 - Jennings - There are still way too many crazy conservatives in this district (Sarasota) but if the rest of the people unite, the Dems win.
Florida 22 - Ron Klein - He could take down Clay Shaw. This will be a nail biter.
Idaho 1- Larry Grant - The only reason this race is a tossup is because Bill Sali is the GOP nominee. When rock solid republicans say you don't have an ounce of compassion in your whole fricking body and when Republican colleagues have suggested that they throw you off the 3rd floor of a building, you are in trouble.
Illinois 6 - Tammy Duckworth - This is a fiercely fought for seat with Henry Hyde retiring. Money coming in from everywhere. GOP money could steal this one or cause a backlash.
Iowa 2 - A very democratic district but Jim Leach the republican is one of the few republicans in Congress who is not off the cliff. Loebsack is better on the issues but this is one race where you can say the Republican is a decent guy who is just wrong on most issues.
Kentucky 4 - Lucas - This is a case of the individual and the district.
Minnesota 1 - Walz - I could upgrade this but this will be close. A strong top of the ticket helps.
New Hampshire 2 - Hodes - Ground was made up, this district is slightly democratic, and is leaning that way. Charlie Bass is going to be tough to take out. This could be a nail biter.
New Jersey 7 - Linda Stender - All depends on motivated voters and who shows up.
New York 20 - Gillibrand against Sweeney in a state with a strong Dem presence at the top.
New York 25 - Dan Maffei - This one looks fairly good. It will be close.
New York 29- Kuhl is melting down and Massa is a strong candidate.
Ohio 2 - Victoria Wulsin - Only Mean Jean Schmidt could make this district a tossup.
Virginia 2 - Kellam - This is the Thelma Drake seat. The area is getting bluer, so is the state.
Wisconsin 5 - Kennedy - I might be a bit optimistic here but this one is closer than you think.
Washington 5 - Goldmark - A tossup
Washington 8 - Darcy Burner - Also a tossup.
POSSIBLY (24) I'll pick 4 of these 24 so I get my 40 but anything can happen. We are seeing a tidal wave against the GOP for allowing their party to be hijacked by the Taliban and the corporatists. Arizona 5, Kansas 2, Colorado 5 Illinois 10, Illinois 14, Ohio 1, Florida 9, Michigan 9, and Kentucky 3 are ones to watch.
Arizona 5 - Harry Mitchell - JD Hayworth is a right wing blowhard unpopular with moderates. If the national mood remains as is, Hayworth could go. This race should be a 2 point race either way.
California 4 - Charlie Brown - Can he take down Doolittle? This will be close.
Colorado 4 - Paccione has a chance.
Colorado 5 - Fawcett has a chance only because the Republican is too crazy even for many republicans.
Colorado 6 - Winter goes against neo nazi lunatic Tom Tancredo in the most conservative district in Colorado. Any normal Republican would have this locked up. Tancredo though is far from normal.
Florida 9 - Phylis Busansky - This is a close race that has come in under the radar. Nelson will have coattails here for Busansky to ride.
Illinois 10 - Dan Seals has a shot in this slightly Democratic district.
Illinois 14 - This is Hastert's seat. Remember in 1994 Tom Foley lost. Hastert's numbers look eerily like Foley's did.
Illinois 19 - Stover can take down Butkus with the scandals brewing.
Kansas 2 - Nancy Boyda - People in this state are turning against the religious right. It will trickle up to congressional races and could start right here.
Kentucky 3 - Yarmuth - on paper a dem should win this but Northup has pulled it out on election day. I hope on paper prevails here.
Michigan 9 - Nancy Skinner - We'll see if she can close the deal.
Minnesota 2 - Colleen Rawley - She has the credentials. This seat has been won by Dems before. This could be the year to retake it.
Nebraska 1 - Maxine Moul - A case of the right candidate at the right time. We have a 1 in 3 shot on this one.
Nevada 2 - Derby - This will be a close race.
Nevada 3 - Hafen - A lesser shot than Nevada 2 but definitely in play.
New York 3 - Peter King truly is an asshole and a right wing freak out of touch with about 60-65% of the district. The problem is that Dave Mejias hasn't run the right campaign.
Ohio 1 - Cranley - If enough people are truly sick of the GOP in Ohio, this one could swing over to the Dems as Chabot goes down.
Pennsylvania 4 - Joe Altmire - In a tidal wave, district's like this could swing especially with the coattails at the top.
Tennessee 7 - Morrison - He has received some impressive endorsements and with Ford doing well at the top of the ticket and a Democrat poised to be reelected governor, this could help Morrison pull it off.
Texas 23 - Rodriguez - do or die time for Ciro. Either make this a race or bow out of politics.
Virginia 5 - Weed - This should have been higher up but the campaign hasn't been what it should.
West Virginia 2 - Callaghan - Byrd is a shoo in for Senate. Give us coattails.
Washington 4 - Wright - Again possible coattails from Cantwell. We shall see.
HOPING (24) These are seats that tend to vote Republican even though many Republicans vote against themselves. Odds are Dems win none of these but Dems are in striking distance in a few of them. If the national mood is even worse off than I thought, then these seats all come into play. And if you see a Dem winning these seats, start counting to 270.
California 50 - One day in the very near future a Dem should win this seat which is trending blue. Unfortunately I don't think we're just quite there yet and Busby just may not be the right candidate.
Delaware - Stivack could win this race but odds are won't. Castle can move to the center if he's in the minority.
Florida 5 - Russell Florida 8 - Stuart
Florida 15 - Bowman Illinois 11 Pavich
Illinois 15 - Gill Indiana 4 - Tom Hayhurst
Kansas 4 - McGinn Michigan 7 - Renier
Michigan 8 - Marcinkowski
Minnesota 3 - Wilde - A darkhorse race. Could end up being very close.
Nebraska 3 - Kleeb
New Hampshire 1 - Porter - One day we'll win this district. I don't think that day is in 2006.
New Jersey 5 - Aronsohn - Another in the long shot category. Menendez should win Senate seat but if he had bigger coattails, he could have carried Aronsohn.
New York 13 - A dem could win Staten Island. Harrison I be a hoping.
Ohio - 3, 8, 12, and 14 - Longshots but with Blackwell going down by 30 points and Dewine by double digits, anything could happen.
Texas 14 - Sklar Texas 21 - Courage
Virginia 10 and 11 - Feder and Hurst. Deep dark horses although Feder has the better chance.