Examining the crosstabs from the VA Senate race is good for Webb and shows the chances in the race as even.
All Dem GOP Ind NoVA S/P Rich Ham L/S R/S 9/27 9/7
Allen 47% 8% 90% 39% 40% 53% 53% 42% 53% 48% 43% 46%
Webb 43% 80% 7% 46% 50% 38% 36% 47% 40% 41% 43% 42%
Other/undec 10% 12% 3% 15% 10% 9% 11% 11% 7% 11% 14% 12%
What leaps out is that 12% of Democrats are undecided v. 3% of Republicans. I think we can be relatively confident that 2 weeks of campaigning by Gov. Warner will probably bring most of those Democrats home. Likewise, Webb is already ahead among independents, most of them should break towards Webb. Webb hasn't yet brought all of his natural voters home while Allen has, but I feel confident that Gov. Warner can pull them harder for Webb than Sen. Warner will for Allen.
The other remarkable thing about this race, shown by previous polls is that Webb and Allen run equally among men and women - there is no gender gap. So can Webb get an edge among woman, rebounding from Allen's negative advertising? I am hopeful that as time passes and the effect of Allen's negative advertising directed to women fades, the predominantly anti-war feelings of most women will naturally come into play. Gov. Warner's efforts should also be effective in making female voters comfortable with Webb.
To sum up, the crosstabs suggest that the undecided vote in VA is overwhelmingly Warner voters. Even if you don't feel as I do that the Governor can out-campaign the Senator, the demographic breakdown of the undecideds would suggest that Webb should pull even.
As with many races across the country, this race will be decided by passion and turnout in the closing days.