Marc Hellenthal (PDF) for lobbyist client. 10/18-21. Likely voters. MoE 6% (No published previous results)
Palin (R) 42
Knowles (D) 43
First Craciun Research for Alaska Newspapers. 10/7-15. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Palin (R) 43
Knowles (D) 43
Alaska Newspapers doesn't have any of its weekly papers online, but I have a copy of the story, dated 10/26. Here's the important stuff:
"It's one of those general elections where every vote will count," said Craciun, whose Anchorage-based research group also has offices in Seattle and Washington, D.C.
Knowles' movement since July is a significant part of the general-election equation, according to Craciun, the research group's president and chief executive officer.
Then, Cracium said, Palin was winning.
But that was three months ago. Now they are neck and neck.
A former Anchorage mayor, Knowles is carrying the state's largest city by 11 percentage points over Palin, former mayor of Wasilla.
Knowles' voter commitment in Anchorage is at or above 50 percent, while Palin's is at 39 percent. Halcro polls at just below 6 percent of the vote in Anchorage, where only 4 percent of the vote remains undecided.
Palin beats Knowles, 57 percent to 25 percent, among "other" Southcentral voters. Halcro hits his highest voter commitment - 7 percent - in that area. More than 11 percent of the voters remain undecided there - the third highest undecided vote in the state.
Palin also runs stronger than Knowles, 44 to 37 percent, among voters in the Fairbanks/Denali area. There, Halcro picks up only 5 percent of the vote. That area also ranks highest - 14 percent - for undecided voters.
In the Southeast, where they worry about capital city relocation to Willow, Knowles runs with 56 percent of the vote and 10 percent undecided. Palin has 28 percent in Southeast with Halcro pulling 6 percent.
Knowles, a former two-term governor, harvests 58 percent of the vote in western and northern Alaska, where there's a strong Native subsistence lifestyle.
Palin pulls about 34 percent in western and northern Alaska.
In August, this race was a 15-20 point Palin lead. Rasmussen has also caught the Knowles surge.
On the web: Tony Knowles for Governor