I don't think the primary results will change much in a week
with Trippi gone. Longer term we will see. There is an advantage in that he was associated with the poor TV ads, even if he was great on the internet.
There are two pre-New Hampshire polls out there as kos has posted.
South Carolina
SurveyUSA. 1/24-26. MoE 3.9%.
Edwards 32
Clark 17
Dean 16
Kerry 13
Sharpton 10
American Research Group. 1/23-24. MoE 4%.
(December results)
Edwards 21 (11)!
Kerry 17 (2)!
Sharpton 15 (12)
Clark 14 (12)
Dean 9 (16)!
I have been running different scenarios as to what the primary will bring. This has not been an important state for Dean but he does have an organization there. He had been more concentrating on other states that day and even now his strategy is not to concentrate on a single state or two.
This is a key state for Edwards and Sharpton. Clark has been playing up southern roots but wants more Oklahoma and Missouri.
Even though I have not been very good so far this year I sometimes make a living at forecasting.
Right now I am leaning toward this finish:
Candidate %vote %del.
Kerry |
27 |
40 |
Edwards |
25 |
37 |
Dean |
16 |
24 |
Sharpton |
14 |
|
Clark |
12 |
|
Lieberman |
5 |
|
Kucinich |
1 |
|