This is a story about something I learned during a long ago election.
Let me tell you a little story.
In the summer of 1990, I was a candidate for the New Democratic Party (hereinafter to be referred to as the NDP) in the Ontario provincial election. I did not win but I nearly double my parties vote over the previous election. You can look it up if you want. See Ontario Provincial Election 1990, Ottawa Rideau riding.
A little background before we continue. As EVERYONE knows, in Ontario as in most of Canada, there are three viable parties: the centre right Conservatives (or in some provinces Progressive Conservatives), the centrist Liberals and the centre left New Democrats. There are also two Quebec sovereignist parties, one each at the federal and provincial levels, and the Greens. In two provinces the centre right party has a different name but they're really the same crowd.
Getting back to 1990, the Liberals had a majority government and the NDP was the Official Opposition, meaning that in the provincial legislature, the NDP had the second largest number of seats and had certian privileges as a result. During question period, for example, the Official Opposition gets to ask more questions.
The Conservatives, or Tories, were the third party, but a few years earlier they had been defeated for the first time in over forty years.
At the end of July, the liberal Premier, David peterson, called an election even though he had two years left on his mandate. It was a needless election and called at the height of summer, when Canadians like to forget about all things drudgerous and boring. This includes work and also politics.
The Prime Minister of Canada at the time was the Conservative Brian Muroney and he was very unpopular. The Leader of the Ontario Tories was - umm, let me think. It'll come back to me. Oh never mind. It doesn't matter. The poor bugger never had a prayer anyway.
The Canadian and Ontario economies at the time were beginning to slow down, and people were feeling a little anxious and insecure. They had two parties they could punish: the Liberals and the Tories. One was in powere provincially and the other federally. People in Ontario often confuse the two.
All this was good news for the NDP, and it was not long into the campaign before it became apparent that I and especially my fellow NDP candidates were going to do very well indeed. I remember the moment I knew that the NDP would win the election. it was about ten days before election day when I heard that the Premier had announced a reduction in the provincial sales tax.
Stop yawning! Pay attention!
I know, it sounds like a really mundane issue, and it was. But it was a significant surrender on the part of the Liberals, the party in power. One of the very minor planks in the NDP platform had to do with reducing sales taxes in favour of more progressive income taxes. Peterson was drowning and in desperation tried to grab a lifeline from the opposition.
When I heard that news, I knew that the election was being fought on our turf. So I was not surprised (much) when we did in fact win a huge majority. This turned out to be a curse rather than a blessing, but that is a tale for another time.
Anyway, that is what I was reminded of today as the President of the United States tried mightily to explain why the policy in Iraq was no longer stay the course, but had instead become "benchmarks". The Republican position on the Iraq, the top issue in the campaign, is no longer viable, let alone defensible. This election is being fought on Democrats' turf.
The Democrats will win the House at least. Unless...this gets in the way. Or this. Or this.
One thing that worries me is how a lot of the GOP spinners arre telling tv audiences how they're mighty GOTV machine is already at work and will save the day. Campaigners have to sound positive before elections, true, but are they preparing us for a surprise result?
Cross posted at slothropia.com