As we move to a dozen days until the Big Dance, we find (finally) a large slate of national polling to chew on in this edition of FTP.
Four national polls, all confirming that the Democratic "macro-wave" continues unabated, and all confirming that George W. Bush is still languishing when it comes to his job approval.
Look for that, as well as new numbers in a total of 22 individual contests, directly on the other side o' the jump.
NATIONAL POLLING
We get four new national polls this Thursday, and the long-predicted tightening of the polls has yet to materialize. Let's look at the polls released today:
PEW RESEARCH (COMPLETED 10/22)
Pew released today, but completed their poll over the weekend. Among likely voters, they find little good news for the GOP. President Bush's approval ratings lie at 38% (53% disapproval), while the generic congressional ballot gives the Democrats an 11-point edge (50-39).
DIAGEO-HOTLINE (COMPLETED 10/23)
The Diageo-Hotline poll has an interesting phenomenon that has grown pretty common in this election year. Among LIKELY voters, the generic edge for Democrats is larger than it is for REGISTERED VOTERS. Here are the numbers for likely voters: Bush job approval at 40% (59% disapproval), and the generic ballot at an all-time high for the Democrats in this poll: 18 points (52-34).
FOX NEWS (COMPLETED 10/25)
Finished on Wednesday, Fox News (perhaps not surprisingly) is the most favorable for the GOP. But it would be a real stretch to call it favorable. Bush's job approval rests at 40% (53% disapproval), which is unchanged since two weeks ago. The generic ballot creeps out a couple of points, as Democrats move into double digits in this poll as well, with an 11-point lead (49-38).
AP/AOL (COMPLETED 10/25)
The numbers from Ipsos, which are distributed by the AP and AOL, show the bleakest numbers for the GOP. The Bush job approval is down to 37%, with a rather stout 61% voicing their disapproval. Among likely voters, the generic ballot test is now a Democrat lead of 19 points (56-37).
For the four polls released today, we see an average Bush job approval of 38.8% (better...but not good), and an average Democratic lead in the generic ballot test of 14.8% (51.8%-37.0%). Again, this is among LIKELY voters.
INDIVIDUAL RACES
Today's 22 individual races show numbers with, for the second day, essentially stagnant momentum. Democrats can claim momentum in 10 races, Republicans can claim momentum in 5 races, and an additional 7 races have neutral momentum.
AK-GOV: Palin (R) 48%, Knowles (D) 39% [GOP]
CAVEAT: This is a Republican poll, taken for the Palin campaign by Dittman Research. This is obviously a response to the twin independent polls released yesterday that had Knowles even with, or slightly leading, the Republican. Just the same, right around the time of the Alaska primaries, Dittman had a poll showing Palin leading by 16 points. This race, quite obviously, has tightened up.
AK-01: Rep. Young (R) 56%, Benson (D) 35% [Dems]
The first poll for the lone Alaska seat in the U.S. House is not close, but it is a great deal closer than past electoral results here would suggest (the closest anyone has come to Young in a decade was a 62-35 decision back in 1998). This poll by C.R.G. seems to indicate that even Alaska Republicans are not immune to the national trends this year. That said--this race is overwhelmingly likely to go to Young, who would then begin his 17th term in the US House of Representatives.
AR-GOV: (2 polls) Beebe (D) 54.5%, Hutchinson (R) 38% [Dems]
Beebe has done an excellent job of making the outcome of this contest seem inevitable. If these new polls from the University of Arkansas (51-38) and SurveyUSA (58-38) are legit, then the outcome of this contest IS inevitable. SurveyUSA also shows a sweep across the board in the state, as did yesterday's Constituent Dynamics poll.
CA-GOV: Gov. Schwarzenegger (R) 48%, Angelides (D) 30% [GOP]
This poll absolutely makes me want to tear my hair out. According to this poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, Governor Ahnuld STILL is not over 50% job approval (47-45). However, he enjoys an eighteen-point lead because nearly a quarter of Democrats are abandoning the Democratic nominee for a governor that they are, at best, ambivalent about. Angelides is simply not closing the deal, and it is getting pretty hard to see where he will be able to do that in the next two weeks.
CO-04: Paccione (D) 45%, Rep. Musgrave (R) 42% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Paccione campaign by Strategic Services. Hmm...just when just about everyone was prepared to chalk this race off, here comes a Paccione internal giving her the lead. Worth noting--even when this race was on everyone's target lists, none of Paccione's internals had her ahead. Close or tied, sure, but never with a three-point lead. I want another poll here before I say this is a race again. One thing we know--Musgrave has not been a particularly good closer in either of her first two races. The narrowness of her six-point win over Matsunaka in 2004 caught damn near everyone by surprise.
GA-GOV: Gov. Perdue (R) 50%, Taylor (D) 31% [Neutral]
Insider Advantage holds the Perdue lead at nineteen points today, a result that is identical to both of yesterday's poll on the race. I guess any hope of a late Mark Taylor rally have just about been extinguished. I start to wonder about the effect this pending blowout could have on the races in GA-08 and GA-12. This state just seems totally immune to the anti-Republican flu that is prevalent just about everywhere else.
GA-08: Rep. Marshall (D) 50%, Collins (R) 34% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, done for the Marshall campaign by the Mellman Group. I know this poll is supposed to relieve Democratic fears about this race, but it IS an internal poll, and Marshall IS stuck on the 50% threshold. I just don't know how much better this poll makes me feel. If I saw a public poll showing Marshall with a solid edge, or even a GOP internal with Marshall even ahead, I'd feel better.
IL-06: Duckworth (D) 44%, Roskam (R) 43% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is an internal poll, taken for the Duckworth campaign by an as-yet unidentified pollster. Roskam has gone uber-negative in this race (another cut-and-run reference made its way into the mailboxes of Illinois voters this week), and the question is if that has been effective. A rule of thumb--if your internals have you tied, you are probably behind.
IN-08: Ellsworth (D) 50%, Rep. Hostettler (R) 43% [GOP]
Research 2000 polls here, and it is worth noting that they are usually a touch on the optimistic side for Republicans in Indiana for some reason (they had Chocola up 16 here in 2004, he wound up winning by 10). Even with that cautionary note, Ellsworth has a considerable lead here, and the majority of undecideds are women, a demographic with which Ellsworth is wiping the floor with the incumbent.
IN-09: Hill (D) 47%, Rep. Sodrel (R) 45% [Neutral]
Research 2000 also comes in to the Ninth District as well, and the result is the same as it has been all month in this district: Hill leading Sodrel, but by a margin that is by no means comfortable. Women are the key undecideds in this race as well, which seems to suggest that both of these races will break in the challengers favor. Still, no doubt exists that Sodrel still has life in this race, which might not be said for Hostettler.
MO-SEN: Sen. Talent (R) 50%, McCaskill (D) 48% [Neutral]
Today, it is Rasmussen coming in and confirming that this toss-up now favors the incumbent ever so slightly. McCaskill needs one final surge, and a huge vote out of the urban areas of the Show-Me State, to pull off this big upset. One thing at this point seems certain--Missouri will run its record to 5 out of 6 major statewide races in six years that will be decided by three points or less.
MT-SEN: Tester (D) 48%, Sen. Burns (R) 42% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, done for the DSCC by Harstad Research. As a general rule of thumb, if your internal polls show what the public polls showed three weeks ago, the race has tightened. I think Tester actually has a resource advantage at the close here, which is why I still (despite the tightening we have seen in the last six days) think he is a favorite to win.
NJ-SEN: (3 poll) Sen. Menendez (D) 43.3%, Kean (R) 40% [Neutral]
Not cause for great alarm necessarily, but today's Rasmussen poll has this contest back at a tossup between Menendez and Kean. One potentially positive note: the initial ballot test here had Kean leading Menendez by two. When leaners were added, it became a tie, suggesting that perhaps the undecideds are Democratic-leaning voters with some lingering reservations about Menendez. In the other two polls, CBS/NYT has the race at a one-point Menendez lead (40-39), while an internal poll for the DSCC by Bennett Pitts and Blumenthal has Menendez ahead by nine points (45-36). There are a lot of DSCC polls bumping around today, which makes me think Chuck Schumer is trying to counter the growing perception that the Senate control equation is starting to drift back to the GOP.
NY-19: Rep. Kelly (R) 48%, Hall (D) 46% [GOP]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, done for the Hall campaign by Abacus Associates. This, to me, seems to be a pretty stunning indictment of the Majority Watch polls, at least the series that included the upstate New York races. When Hall's own internals show him trailing, after MW had him up by nine...well, that says something. However, Kelly is keeping her internals very close to the vest, so that ALSO says something.
NY-26: Rep. Reynolds (R) 50%, Davis (D) 45% [Neutral}
For the second straight poll, Tom Reynolds has pulled back from the dead and established a narrow lead, according to this SurveyUSA poll. Unlike the last poll, Erie County (a more Democratic county) was surveyed this time. The last time, they were without power. The prompt government response might have earned Reynolds some "warm fuzzies", an area that had been a double-digit Davis county is now dead-even.
OH-GOV: Strickland (D) 62%, Blackwell (R) 32% [Dems]
Wow...if SurveyUSA is even in the ballpark on this one, then the Republican fortunes in Ohio must be absolutely dismal. Strickland is almost up two-to-one over Blackwell, according to the SUSA poll released today. This is teetering on the brink of "too good to be true" territory. And speaking of that...
OH-SEN: Brown (D) 57%, Sen. DeWine (R) 37% [Dems]
Again, here is SurveyUSA declaring the Republican candidate to be absolutely dead meat. Given that there have been a raft of polls showing the Democrat leading, but only by around 6-10 points, I am not sure I am buying 20 points. I know SurveyUSA does not weight by party, and I also know they push on leaners pretty hard. Could that account for a ten-point swing?
TN-SEN: Ford (D) 47%, Corker (R) 45% [Dems]
Caveat--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the DSCC by Hamilton and Beattie. While this is the first poll in over a week to show a Ford lead, it is also from the same pollster that showed an eleven-point Ford lead at the end of last month, so enjoy with your finest salt. With yesterday's SUSA tossup, however, this poll reminds us that all is not yet lost in the Volunteer State.
VT-SEN: Sanders (I) 57%, Tarrant (R) 36% [GOP]
This Research 2000 show indicates GOP momentum, since it is closer than previous polls. It still, however, portends a fairly one-sided electoral result. One that, in this case, will bring to the Senate another Independent who will ally himself with the Democrats. Look soon for a new poll here on the more contested House race here.
VA-SEN: Sen. Allen (R) 49%, Webb (D) 48% [Neutral]
Wow. This Rasmussen race seems to drive home a rapidly developing reality: THIS, and not Tennessee or Missouri, is now the closest US Senate race in the nation. And the good news for Webb--this is no longer attributable to a post-Macaca bounce. This is now a tossup on its own merits, one that seems likely to remain a tossup until November 7th.
VA-02: Rep. Drake (R) 46%, Kellam (D) 44% [Neutral]
This poll, from Mason-Dixon, pleases me for a couple of reasons. For one thing, it confirms an earlier Majority Watch poll, which gives me renewed hope that Majority Watch wasn't that far off with their other polls. Second, as Brad Coker himself pointed out, the "likely voters" screen greatly reduced the number of African-Americans polled. Over 20% of the districts population, they represent just 9% of the sample. Just as in the VA and TN Senate races, if Democrats can mobilize the black vote, they will be winners here as well.
WA-02: Rep. Larsen (D) 62%, Roulstone (R) 33% [Dems]
I am sure there is a good reason why SurveyUSA continues to poll in this district. I just am no longer sure what it is. Sure, this district was SUPPOSED to be competitive: the NRCC was high on Roulstone, and he was reasonably well-funded for a first-time challenger. But he is getting smoked, and has been getting smoked for a couple of months.
...And that closes the books on Thursday's edition of FTP. More numbers tomorrow, although tomorrow will be an "early edition" of the diary, as it is a football night, and I have to be on the road by 4:30 PM PT.
Have a happy Thursday, folks...the weekend is a mere 29 hours away!!