Two years ago, just after the 2004 elections, I
wrote a diary about where the Democratic Party should be looking for House districts that were most likely to swing from red to blue in 2006, spinning off of an analysis dividing the United States into 10 political regions published by an organization called MassINC. (Their original report is
here.) My main argument was that the Democratic Party was targeting districts in the wrong part of the country and ignoring much riper opportunities. I decided to revisit my analysis taking a look at where the battle for 2006 is fiercest.
I pointed out that Democrats enjoyed lopsided representation in certain regions-- in particular the region called the "Upper Coasts," which encompasses 40 seats, of which Democrats held 35 following the 2004 elections. My argument was that any list of swing districts for 2006 should include those five Republican districts.
What do we find now?
I decided to use the Cook Political Report's most recent analysis of competitive House races (from October 25th; see here). The five Republicans who represent Upper Coasts are Johnson and Simmons of Connecticut; Kelly and Sweeney of New York; and Reichert of Washington. Much to my surprise (and delight) I found that all five are considered threatened this year: Kelly is in the "Likely Republican," Sweeney in the "Leans Republican," but the other three are in the "Republican Toss Up" category.
Likewise, in the Northeast Corridor (the second-most Democratic delegation--split 30 to 13), 3 out of its 13 Republicans are in the "Republican Toss Up" category.
I said in my 2004 diary that the Democrats should not focus on districts in the Farm Belt region, which has the most lopsided Republican delegation (33 out of 41 districts). Much to my surprise, however, I found that the Farm Belt is the region with the highest number of seats rated "Republican Toss Up," (6) including Chocola, Hostettler, and Sodrel of Indiana and Geoff Davis in Kentucky. I'd like to believe this doesn't mean my original theory was wrong, but rather that it's a sign of the Republican Party's meltdown that it's forced to defend so many districts in a region that should be a lock.
It will be interesting to see what happens a week from Tuesday--will the Democrats sweep all five of the Upper Coasts Republicans out of office? Will the Farm Belt Democrats be able to win seats in hostile territory? Of course I'm hoping so, but I'm already looking forward to 2008. There are eight Republicans in Northeast Corridor seats who are rated "Solid" this year, and maybe it's time they had to run a real race...