Cross-posted from michiganliberal.com
I've just gone through and updated the master State House & Senate lists with the
latest fundraising totals. See them by clicking on the links below:
State Senate
State House
An interesting observation from looking at these lists. Judging
solely
from money raised by candidate committees (by NO means a completely
accurate predictor of what will happen Nov. 7!) -
Democrats will have a 1-vote majority in the State Senate, and be 1-vote shy of a 50-50 split in the State House.
Again, I repeat, this is JUST looking at money raised. District trends,
polling, the candidate's smile and handshake, or any rumors of trysts
with barnyard animals - are not taken into account.
Some more details below the fold...
State Senate
Democrats
Glenn Anderson (
SD06 -Westland),
Andy Levin (
SD13 - Royal Oak), Sandy Lipsey (
SD20 - Kalamazoo) and
Carl Williams (
SD32 - Bay City)
have all outraised their Republican opponents. Each of those races is for a seat currently held by a Republican.
Below those four shining stars, there are another four who have cracked
the $100,000 mark. If you're looking surprises, these are the ones to
watch (according to the money raised vs. money opponent raised) - in
order of liklihood:
Julie Dennis (
SD34 - Muskegon),
Bob Schockman (
SD17 - Bedford Twp.), Michlib-endorsed
David LaGrand (
SD29 - Grand Rapids), and
Mark Slavens (
SD07 - Canton)
State House
Democrats
Kate Ebli (
HD056 - Monroe),
Marty Griffin (
HD064 - Jackson),
Mike Simpson (
HD065 - Jackson), and
Mary Valentine (
HD091
- Muskegon),
all hold fundraising advantages over their Republican
opponents. With the exception of Ebli, who is running for the seat left
open by the late Rep. Herb Kehrl, all of these candidates are running
for a seat now held by a Republican.
Unlike the Senate, however, below these top four candidates are several
others who are literally nipping at their opponents heels moneywise.
First would be incumbent Rep.
Fred Miller (
HD031
- Mount Clemens). Miller's Republican opponent (Daniel Tollis)
apparently took out a $100,000 loan for himself. Miller isn't doing too
shabby. He's raised $92,000 - and I suspect even Tollis' loan won't be
enough to take down a Dem incumbent THIS year. Anyway, assuming Miller
is able to keep his seat, that takes us to an even 55-55 shared-power
situation.
But wait, there's more....
Both
Brian Duggan (
HD019 Livonia) and
Dan Scripps (
HD101
Northport) are just slightly below their opponents in the money race
(6k in the case of Duggan and 12k in the case of Scripps). Beyond those
two, there are three other Dems who have managed to crack $50,000
(ranked in order of liklihood as determined by relative
fundraising):
Lisa Brown (
HD039 - West Bloomfield) and Michlib-endorsed
Fred Starzyk (
HD051 - Grand Blanc) are virtually even, followed by
Rev. Robert Dean (
HD075 - Grand Rapids). Two other wildcards to note:
Judy Truesdell (
HD078 - Niles) and
Julie Rogers (
HD061
- Kalamazoo). Neither of these two candidates has raised all that much
money...but neither have their opponents. Probably unlikely, but if
there's a tidal wave on Nov. 7, they may be worth keeping an eye on (at
least judging by the charts offered here).
Other factors...
None of this includes money spent by the State Party - and, most
notably, it does NOT gauge the impact of the extensive
advertising done by the
Coalition for Progress.
Take all of this into account, and it's easy to see why Republicans are
hitting the panic button and striking out at anything and anybody that
they can. They're in trouble - REAL trouble. Of course money isn't
everything. But it is pretty darned important. And considering how
often Democrats get outspent, these tables say quite a bit about where
things may be heading for Nov. 7th.