I'll be the first one to admit I'm a total nerd. I started keeping a running list of all the locations that have decided to perform gay marriages or recognize them as well as the date they chose to do so. It was obvious that something interesting was happening, but I wasn't sure what it was, so I decided to plot it. I have only 4 data points, but I noticed that the last 3 fit an exponential curve almost perfectly. So I did what any rational person with way too much time on their hands would do: I plotted them, fit an exponential curve to it, and projected the data a couple weeks into the future.
(my data and projection are below)
Here is the data I used. Please let me know if there's any I'm missing or have incorrect.
2/12/2004 | 1 | San Francisco, CA |
2/27/2004 | 2 | New Paltz, NY |
| | Nyack, NY (nope) |
3/3/2004 | 3 | Portland, OR |
3/8/2004 | 4 | Seattle, WA |
3/8/2004 | 5 | Asbury Park, NJ |
I believe Oakland is set to vote on the issue March 16th, and it should pass.
Finally, my projection:
Based on this projection, there will be 70 towns/counties recognizing and/or granting gay marriage licenses by late April.