A new poll by
Majority Watch (click on Wisconsin) has Democrat Steve Kagen leading Bush Puppy John Gard by 6. The poll is one of the better ones I've seen on this race, sampling 984 likely voters with a MoE of +/- 3.
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The most recent independent polls I've seen show this race as a dead heat, with Gard leading but within the margin.
Kagen had a case of foot-in-mouth disease not long ago, when he apologized for being late to an event by saying he was visiting the Oneida Nation and they were "running on Injun time." That gave Gard a wee boost, but the Oneida Nation folks said they weren't offended, and the flap seems to have abated.
Interestingly, but not surpisingly, Kagen's lead is strongest in the more urban parts of the district around Green Bay.
Gard, for those who don't know, is currently our State Assembly Speaker. He's largely responsible for the gay marriage ban being on the ballot next Tuesday. He's a hard-right, religious nut who hasn't even lived in his district for the last 10 years or so.
Kagen is an allergist with a bunch of money, and has largely self-financed his campaign.
This district is an open seat, vacated by Congressman Mark Green, who is currently losing the governor's race to incumbent Jim Doyle. In 2004, Green won re-election with 70 percent of the vote. It's a heavily conservative area, went for Bush. So to see Kagen even close is quite remarkable. To see that he might actually win? Amazing.