Well here goes with specific numbers and all.
THE SENATE
Keep in mind that 2006 is just the beginning. In 2008 Republicans have 22 Senate seats to defend and we only have 11. Our goal should be to try and win 10 more of those 22 seats in 2008. If we get 6 wins now we will have won nearly 75% of all Senate seats in play this year.
As for seats currently held by Democrats, I predict that Democrats will hold onto all seats. In Minnesota, Washington, and Michigan, the Democrats have proven strong. I predict Klobucher wins by 17 points, Cantwell by 14 and Stabenow by 9. In Maryland, Ben Cardin should in the end also win by 10 points as the truth about rabid right wing extremist Michael Steele has become known. New Jersey will be the most competitive of the Democratic holds but in the end New Jerseyans do not want a right wing Republican like Tom empty suit Kean Jr. in the Senate and Menendez will win by 7 points.
There are 4 Senate takeover seats which I think even the GOP has conceded. I predict Casey beats Santorum by 20 points, Brown over Dewine by 12 points, Whitehouse over Chafee by 9 points, and Tester over Burns by 6 points. Nevertheless, if you live in these states, treat these races as dead heats. The more impressive the margin of victory, the better chance that Senator has six years from now.
Connecticut is a race between Ned Lamont and GOP Joe. I think this will end up being a 1 point race 43-42 with Schlessinger/Others getting 15%. Ballot position, people paying attention in the end, and the constant lies of corrupt Senator for Sale Joe Lieberman make this a nail biter. The recent Rasmussen and Zogby combined average has Lieberman up 6 which is the same margin Weicker led by in 1988. I knew there was a reason Joe was acting very angrily and nasty yesterday.
The other 3 main races to watch are Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee. All 3 races should end up being decided by razor thin margins. I'll predict that we win Missouri by 3, Virginia by 2, and lose Tennessee by 1. But again, if you live in these states, get to work.
As for longshots, if this is a tsunami year, Pederson could still beat Kyl but I predict Pederson falls 4 points short. For those in Arizona, get to the polls because if the numbers show a romp on the East Coast and Midwest, many Republicans may stay home. Carter could also be the other longshot but I predict Ensign wins by 11.
THE HOUSE
Republicans across the country have 2 possible House seats they can pick up from Democrats - Georgia 12 and Iowa 3. As of today Iowa 3 looks great for the Dems. Georgia 12 is very vulnerable but Barrow should edge out Burns by 2%.
YES (13) Democrats should win all 13 of these seats. I'd be shocked if they got less than 12.
Arizona 8 - Gabrielle Giffords will handily defeat wingnut Randi Graf in the seat vacated by Jim Kolbe.by around 15 points.
Colorado 7 - Perlmutter should win this open seat in a Democratic leaning district by around 7 points.
Connecticut 2 - Joe Courtney takes down Right wing Rob Simmons in this Democratic district by 6 points.
Connecticut 4 - The most liberal district in the country held by a Republican. Diane Farrell takes down phony moderate Chris Shays, who showed his true colors with his Ted Kennedy hatred by 4 points.
Florida 16 - Mahoney - The name Foley is on the ballot. I don't think 50% of the people are going to vote for a child predator although many Republicans seem to have no problem with child predators that have an R attached to their name. Mahoney by 6.
Indiana 2 - Joe Donnelly. I think the GOP realizes this one goes Democratic. Donnelly by 6.
Indiana 8 - Hostetler is an insane bigot. Ellsworth has led in every poll for months. Ellsworth by 7.
New York 24 - Arcuri - This district was held by the last of the liberal republicans Sherwood Boehlert for decades. Arcuri fits the district, the GOP conservative does not. Arcuri by 12.
New York 26 - Jack Davis - Bye Bye Tom Reynolds. Foleygate takes down this wingnut. Davis by 11.
North Carolina 11 - Heath Schuler - Great candidate consistently ahead. Schuler by 9.
Ohio 15 - Mary Jo Kilroy - In a tidal wave, leadership goes down. Deborah Pryce goes down. Kilroy by 8.
Pennsylvania 7 - Only a Republican like Weldon could criticize a man for getting the best health care available to him for his 5 year old daughter. That's why Joe Sestak wins this one by 8.
Pennsylvania 10 - Don Sherwood choked his mistress. Christopher Carney wins this one by 12.
PROBABLY YES (9) Again Democrats should win all 8. I'd be shocked if we got less than 6 of these.
California 11 - McNerney - This is Richard Pombo's district. Pombo is nuts, an Abramoff crony and Pombo is way too conservative for the district. McNerney by 5.
Indiana 9 - The dem is the 1 term incumbent and the climate is better for us now than in 2004. Hill should prevail by 6.
Iowa 1 - Braley - A democratic leaning district in a democratic year. Braley by 4.
New Mexico 1 - Patricia Madrid - This is a polarizing district and Heather Wilson is corrupt and crazy. Polls seem to show Madrid with a slight lead. Madrid by 4.
New York 19 - John Hall - Sue Kelly is part of the problem. Dems have resurged in NY after years of failed Republican leadership. Hall by 3.
Ohio 18 - Zack Space - There are still pockets of right wing extremism here but most people in this area are tired of it. Padgett is a Bob Ney crony. All signs point to a Dem pickup. Space by 5.
Pennsylvania 6 - Lois Murphy - Bye Bye Gerlach. This district is going blue for a long time. Last second mudslinging by Gerlach should backfire. Murphy by 3.
Texas 22 - Lampson - This is the Delay seat. The write in faces too many obstacles. Lampson by 4.
Wisconsin 8 - Kagen - A tossup open seat in a Dem year. Right place, right time. Kagen by 5.
50-50 But Leaning Democratic (11) don't be surprised if Dems win all 11. 7 is a good bet. 8-9 is more likely.
Connecticut 5 - Chris Murphy has a great chance and has one of the best ads running. Nancy Johnson is corrupt and out of touch. This district encompasses Waterbury and other conservative cesspools in the state but at least half of the district has normal people. Murphy by 3.
Florida 13 - Jennings - There are still way too many crazy conservatives in this district (Sarasota) but if the rest of the people unite, the Dems win. Jennings by 2.
Idaho 1- Larry Grant - The only reason this race is a tossup is because Bill Sali is the GOP nominee. When rock solid republicans say you don't have an ounce of compassion in your whole fricking body and when Republican colleagues have suggested that they throw you off the 3rd floor of a building, you are in trouble. Grant by 1.
Iowa 2 - A very democratic district but Jim Leach the republican is one of the few republicans in Congress who is not off the cliff. Loebsack is better on the issues but this is one race where you can say the Republican is a decent guy who is just wrong on most issues. I'm hoping Loebsack but I predict Leach by 2.
Kentucky 4 - Lucas - This is a case of the individual and the district. Lucas by 2.
Minnesota 6 - Wetterling is a great candidate, Michelle Bachmann the GOP candidate is the Queen of the American Taliban and a nasty, crazy woman. If the truth was known Wetterling would win by 50. However, Wetterling by 1 point.
New York 20 - Gillibrand against Sweeney in a state with a strong Dem presence at the top. Gillebrand by 4.
New York 25 - Dan Maffei - This one looks fairly good. Maffei by 5.
New York 29- Kuhl is melting down and Massa is a strong candidate. Massa by 2.
North Carolina 8 - Kissell - An example of how a candidate can win when you show people where you stand on the issues and where Republicans stand on the issues. Dems across the country should learn from this campaign. Kissell by 3.
Washington 8 - Darcy Burner - Also a tossup. Dems have a slight advantage with the partisan voting index. Burner by 2.
50-50 (11) If you are looking for someone to volunteer for in the remaining week, these ten people could use your help. These are your tossups. The mere fact that I rate these as the 34th-44th best chances Dems have at pickups is cause for celebration. Remember the long term goal is getting rid of all the right wing conservatives. Wins here can help do that.
Florida 22 - Ron Klein - He could take down Clay Shaw. This will be a nail biter. Klein by 1.
Illinois 6 - Tammy Duckworth - This is a fiercely fought for seat with Henry Hyde retiring.
Money coming in from everywhere. GOP money could steal this one or cause a backlash. I'm hoping Duckworth. I'll predict Tammy wins by 1.
Illinois 10 - Dan Seals has a good shot in this slightly Democratic district. Seals by 2.
New Hampshire 2 - Hodes - Ground was made up, this district is slightly democratic, and is leaning that way. Momentum is with Hodes. Hodes by 3.
New Jersey 7 - Linda Stender - All depends on motivated voters and who shows up. Stender by less than 1% point.
Ohio 1 - Cranley - If enough people are truly sick of the GOP in Ohio, this one could swing over to the Dems as Chabot goes down. I've upgraded this race from possibly. This is the ultimate bellweather district. Cranley by 2.
Ohio 2 - Victoria Wulsin - Only Mean Jean Schmidt could make this district a tossup. District still has too many wingnuts. Mean Jean by 2.
Pennsylvania 8 - Murphy - This is the tough race against Fitzpatrick but Rendell and Casey should have the coattail effect. Fitzpatrick has run an excellent/dishonest campaign concealing his real views. Fitzpatrick by 1.
Virginia 2 - Kellam - This is the Thelma Drake seat. The area is getting bluer, so is the state. Kellam by 3.
Washington 5 - Goldmark - A tossup. I hope we win, I predict we fall short by 2 points.
Wisconsin 5 - Kennedy - I might be a bit optimistic here but this one is closer than you think. Kennedy misses by 4.
REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE (13) We're now dealing with races 44-57 in terms of chances of a Democratic pickup. Fortunately I'm expecting Democrats to win about 4-6 of these races. Of course I'd love all 14 so if you live near any of these people, they could use your help.
Arizona 1 - Ellen Simon. It appears that the incumbent Renzi is about to be indicted and this is a close district. Arizona is a state that could very easily turn blue for the next generation. Close but no cigar. I pick Renzi by 2.
Arizona 5 - Harry Mitchell - JD Hayworth is a right wing blowhard unpopular with moderates. If the national mood remains as is, Hayworth could go. This race should be a 2 point race either way. With uncertainty the blowhard is the favorite.
Colorado 4 - Paccione has a chance. Musgrave only got 51% in 2004. Very vulnerable. I pick Paccione by 3.
Colorado 5 - Fawcett has a chance only because the Republican is too crazy even for many republicans. Fawcett by 1.
Florida 9 - Phylis Busansky - This is a close race that has come in under the radar. Nelson will have coattails here for Busansky to ride. Upset time. Busansky by 2.
Florida 24 - Curtis and Feeney are unexpectedly in a close race. Feeney is perhaps the most corrupt Republican in Congress which is saying a lot. Polls show a dead heat. I pick Curtis by 1.
Illinois 14 - This is Hastert's seat. Remember in 1994 Tom Foley lost. Hastert's numbers look eerily like Foley's did. I'm hoping but probably fall a little short. Hastert by 3.
Kansas 2 - Nancy Boyda - People in this state are turning against the religious right. It will trickle up to congressional races and could start right here. Upset - Boyda by 2.
Kentucky 3 - Yarmuth - on paper a dem should win this but Northup has pulled it out on election day. I hope on paper prevails here. Good news is some polls have Yarmuth ahead. I'll go Yarmuth by 4.
Minnesota 1 - Walz - I could upgrade this but this will be close. A strong top of the ticket helps. We probably fall short by 3.
New York 3 - Peter King truly is an asshole and a right wing freak out of touch with about 60-65% of the district. The problem is that Dave Mejias hasn't run the right campaign. King by 5.
Pennsylvania 4 - Joe Altmire - In a tidal wave, district's like this could swing especially with the coattails at the top. Altmire in an upset over Hart less by 2.
West Virginia 2 - Callaghan - Byrd is a shoo in for Senate. Give us coattails. He probably falls 2 points short.
POSSIBLE (13) We're dealing with races 58-70 in terms of possible Democratic pickups. I think we have a winner or two from this list. Let's go for it.
California 4 - Charlie Brown - Can he take down Doolittle? A just miss. Doolittle by 2.
Colorado 6 - Winter goes against neo nazi lunatic Tom Tancredo in the most conservative district in Colorado where the conservative culture of towns like Littleton, Colorado are a bit too plentiful. Tancredo holds on by 7.
Illinois 19 - Stover can take down Butkus with the scandals brewing but misses by 5.
Michigan 9 - Nancy Skinner - We'll see if she can close the deal. She'll probably fall 4 short.
Minnesota 2 - Colleen Rawley - She has the credentials. This seat has been won by Dems before. This could be the year to retake it. Rawley though probably falls 4 points short.
Nebraska 1 - Maxine Moul - A case of the right candidate at the right time. We have a 1 in 3 shot on this one. I say we fall short by 2.
Nebraska 3 - Scott Kleeb. Nelson is strong on top of ticket, a Dem will be Governor, and this is the kind of race which shows that people aren't really Republican if you tell them where you stand on issues. A recent poll actually has Kleeb up 6 points. Kleeb upsets, wins by 4.
Nevada 2 - Derby - This will be a close race. The GOP may have saved itself when Heller got the nomination in the primary. This is a winnable district for Dems down the road. For now Heller by 7.
Nevada 3 - Hafen - For whatever reason Dems are not doing as well in Nevada as they are elsewhere. Normally this seat should have swung. Porter [R} by 5.
Tennessee 7 - Morrison - He has received some impressive endorsements and with Ford doing well at the top of the ticket and a Democrat poised to be reelected governor, this could help Morrison pull it off. He probably falls short.
Texas 23 - Rodriguez - do or die time for Ciro. For whatever reason he seems to come up short more often than not. Bonilla by 10.
Virginia 5 - Weed - This should have been higher up but the campaign hasn't been what it should. We fall short by 7.
Washington 4 - Wright - Again possible coattails from Cantwell. We shall see. Probably lose by 8.
HOPING (27
California 26 - Cynthia Matthews. I'd love to see us gerrymander this.
California 50 - One day in the very near future a Dem should win this seat which is trending blue. Unfortunately I don't think we're just quite there yet and Busby just may not be the right candidate. I understand I may be the only one to have this outside the top 70. Busby loses by 8 and we get a better candidate next time.
California 52 - Jim Rinaldi makes it competitive but falls 8 points short.
Delaware - Stivack. Incumbency helps out Castle even though most people in Delaware are Democrats. Stivack gets romped.
Florida 5 - Russell. No traction. Very disappointing. We lose by 20.
Florida 8 - Stuart. Also no traction. We get blownout.
Florida 15 - Bowman. Some traction not enough. A ten point loss.
Georgia 3 - Mike McGraw - Can he take down Westmoreland?
Illinois 11 Pavich. Coming on strong but probably falls a little short.
Illinois 15 - Gill. Not enough momentum.
Indiana 4 - Tom Hayhurst. More money in this race early on could have made a difference. This can only be won if the tidal wave is a tsunami. We fall short by 7.
Kansas 4 - McGinn. This is Kansas and Kansans are not happy with the Religious right. Should be closer than people think.
Louisiana 1 - Stacey Tallitsch - Very unlikely.
Maryland - Andrew Duck, Duck, is Moonie Roscoe Bartlett finally goosed? The competitiveness of this race came out of nowhere. Keep an eye on this one.
Michigan 7 - Sharon Renier
Michigan 8 - Jim Marcinkowski. Also keep an eye on this one.
Minnesota 3 - Wilde - A darkhorse race. Could end up being very close.
Missouri 7 - Jack Truman - Can he take down the crazy Blunt?
New Hampshire 1 - Porter - One day we'll win this district. I don't think that day is in 2006 although Carol Shea Porter is a great candidate. Still, keep an eye on this one.
New Jersey 3 - Sexton - This is also a winnable seat at some point. Just wish Dems could have been a little stronger.
New Jersey 5 - Aronsohn - Another in the long shot category. Menendez should win Senate seat but if he had bigger coattails, he could have carried Aronsohn.
New York 13 - A dem could win Staten Island. Harrison I be a hoping.
Ohio - 3, 8, 12, and 14 - Longshots but with Blackwell going down by 30 points and Dewine by double digits, anything could happen.
Texas 14 - Sklar
Texas 21 - John Courage. Also keep an eye on this one.
Virginia 10- Judy Feder. She's an impressive candidate.
Virginia 11 Hurst. Deep dark horse- Tom Davis' district should be turned blue one of these days.
Wyoming at Large - Barbara Cubin is a slap in the face to humanity and decency. Surprisingly, this is a close race. Gary Traunor could actually win this which is why you compete for 435 House districts not just 250 House seats.