In the contest for delegates won in the states, here's the current count among the top four candidates, with about 10-15% of delegates aligned with a candidate (including the more malleable superdelegates):
Kerry: 162 (244)
Edwards: 80 (102)
Clark: 48 (79)
Dean: 27 (121)
The elections over the past two weeks have awarded 546 delegates, and the elections over the next two weeks are now the focus of the campaigns. 552 more delegates will be awarded, meaning we are at the halfway point to Super Tuesday a month from now. Over the next month, there are three upcoming stages that the media will focus upon:
First, from 2/7 - 2/8, Michigan(128), Washington(76), and Maine(24) will select their delegates. This will widely be viewed as Dean's showdown against Kerry's momentum. Dean would seemingly be in a situation of having to win at least one state, but he's sure to garner delegates in Washington, and says he's moving onto Wisconsin regardless.
Second, on 2/10, Tennessee(69) and Virginia(82) will hold primaries for their delegates. Kerry will compete in these two states; but it's mostly a showdown between Clark and Edwards, to see who's the southern alternative to Kerry. Clark and Edwards are in must-win situations, but finishing ahead of Kerry in either state gives them a reason to go on. Early indications are that Clark is focusing on Tennessee, and Edwards on Virginia.
Third, on 2/17, Wisconsin(72). This is looming as the big prize. A week's worth of media will focus on the state. If all four candidates are still in it, it will be a pivital contest, as none of the remaining candidates will be able to avoid it, and the winner will be provided huge momentum heading into Super Tuesday on 3/2.
There are other contests for delegates between now and then: Dems Abroad(7), DC (16), Nevada(24), Idaho(18), Utah(23), and Hawaii(20), and if anyone other than Kerry wins, it may be news.
Kerry is obviously in the strongest position, but it's yet not yet a done deal. The upcoming two weeks will determine whether the three alternatives to Kerry remain fractured, or combine forces around a strong alternative to Kerry.