If I were Nader and I was thinking about building a third party on the left I would absolutely be gearing up for a run this year. Here is why. At this point the general election is shaping up as an uncompetitive contest (Deanies spare me your flames none of the Democrats is looking strong against Bush). Still, the ultimate Demo nominee is going to make a play for the election and move center. That is going to leave open the left flank. Nader can position the Greens exactly on Kucinich's platform. Given that the election is not competitive anyway, voters who are excited by a third part option can costlessly vote Green in a way they could not in 2000.
The objective for the Greens should be to break the 5% barrier needed for public funding in 2008. They can encourage Green voters to vote for the future rather than wasting their votes on a hopelessly corrupt Democratic party. Furthermore, if the election is a blowout for Bush turnout will be depressed making it easier to acheive the 5% goal.
If they succeed in breaking the 5% barrier in 2004 then in 2008 they can run a serious alternative (someone not named Nader--perhaps a southern pro-life religious conservative devoted to preserving the environment) to both parties and perhaps try to break organized labor away from the Democrats on the basis of opposition to globalization. The Greens might also take an aggressive anti-immigration platform (ala the Sierra Club) and an anti-globalization anti-intervention policy that would be very attractive to the Buchanan types. This combination might be very attractive to the kind of working class voters the Democrats have been surrendering to the Republicans. If they could add in some flavor of religious conservatism and redistributive tax platform along the lines offered by the Republican Governor in Alabama we might face the prospect of a partisan realignment and even a potential Presidential victory for the Greens in 2008. They could become the TRUE conservative party.
What is left is the suburban economic and social liberals and corporate types for the Dems and Republicans to fight over.
Oh well, just a little dreaming for a Friday afternoon. I can't imagine that Nader and the Greens really have the cojones and the ruthlessness to pull this off. But new parties are born out of the fire. So, fire away. ;-)