Tradesports.com has contracts on many political outcomes, including all open Senate races, House and Senate control, popular and electoral vote numbers, who each state will go for, and others. For the first time (apart from one likely error trade) the Bush reelection contract has fallen below 50. The price represents the percentage chance Bush will win.
This contract has had a ridiculous pro-Bush bias for weeks. It hit 63 last week when his poll numbers were still stuck on 47. (My best sale was 61.6.) Seems like either smart observers now think the race is Kerry's to lose, or that Bush owners no longer want the risk of being long his campaign.
Other markets there, all from Bush's point of view: Ohio is around 49.2, down from 55.5 earlier today; Wisconsin 53.5, down from 57; Florida, 60.5, down from 63.7. In other races, Murkowski is around 44, Coors around 38. Less encouraging are Carson 38, and Daschle 48.5.
CW is that the Iowa markets are better than polls at predicting election outcomes. I don't know if that's true, but what the movement suggests to me is that the efforts of sites like this and others to keep "friendly" stories alive has really had an impact.