This is the third in a series of diaries on competitve New York State Senate races. Here are the
first and the
second.
Competitve Races
Sen-34: Inc.
Jeffrey Klein (D,W) - Jospeh J Savino (R,C)
SOLID D
Sen-49: Inc.
David J Valesky (D,W) - Jeff Brown (R,I,C)
TOSS-UP
Sen-35: Inc. Nicholas Spano (R,I,C) -
Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D) TOSS-UP
Sen-42: Inc. John Bonacic (R,I,C) -
Susan Zimet (D,W) TOSS-UP
Sen-40: Inc. Vincent Leibell (R,I,C) -
Michael Kaplowitz (D,W) LEANS R
Sen-02: Inc. John J Flanagan (R,I,C) -
Brooke Ellison (D,W) LEANS R
Sen-24: Andrew Lanza (R,I) -
Matthew Titone (D,W) - Charles Pistor (C)
LEANS R
Sen-41: Inc. Stephen Saland (R,I,C) -
Brian Keeler (D,W) LEANS R
Sen-03: Inc. Caesar Trunzo (R,I,C) -
Jimmy Dahroug (D) - David Ochoa (W)
LEANS R
Sen-15: Inc. Serphin Maltese (R,I,C) -
Albert Baldeo (D) LIKELY R
Sen-11: Inc. Frank Padavan (R,I,C) -
Nora C Marino (D,W) LIKELY R
Sen-56: Inc. Joseph A Robach (R,C,I,W) -
Willa Powell (D) SOLID R
Sen-52: Inc. Thomas W Libous (R,I,C) -
Mark Trabucco (D,W) SOLID R
Much, much more below the fold.
In the three weeks since the
last update, the Senate Republican Campaign Committee has spent over $3.4 million defending GOP senate candidates across the state, including over $1.1 million in TV ad buys for individual candidates. Majority Leader Joe Bruno, the Ted Stevens of the New York State Senate, has wired in $200,000 from his own committee to boost the GOP's funds for their final push; they have $1.6 million on hand.
But they don't have Eliot Spitzer, and that's why Joe Bruno is
trying to scare upstate voters into reelecting GOP Senators by suggesting that a Democratic majority would funnel upstate tax money to New York City and Long Island. On Monday, the New York Post reported that Joe Bruno
threatened Spitzer not to campaign for Democrats in close districts else he would block Spitzer's reform agenda in the Senate. Apparently, Spitzer is
ignoring Uncle Joe.
If Democrats do take the State Senate, the #1 opponent of Eliot Spitzer's reform agenda will be Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. Of all Democrats, Silver stands the most to lose if the "three men in a room" system is done away with. So it is little wonder
the Assembly Speaker is sitting on over $3.1 million. He isn't spending any of it either.
I would be remiss not to mention Alan Hevesi, and the controversy wherein he hired his wife a chaffeur on the state's dime. I will not spend many words on it because I don't think the Hevesi situation will seriously hurt the Democrats running for State Senate, though it cannot be ignored in evaluating close races.
New York State Republican Campaign Committee
Raised: $875,255.00
Transfers In: $614,500.00
Expenditures: $3,427,842.44
Transfers Out: $1,126,815.00
Cash on Hand: $1,587,086.83
New York State Democratic Senate Campaign Committee
Raised: $559,389.51
Expenditures: $281,313.96
Transfers Out: $315,000.00 (all to Valesky)
Cash on Hand: $833,599.60
Democratic Defenses:
Sen-34: Inc.
Jeffrey Klein (D,W) - Jospeh J Savino (R,C)
UPDATE: The SRCC threw Savino a $25,000 bone in late September but Klein will outspend him at least 4-1.
Republicans have abandoned this race.
SOLID D.
10/18: LIKELY D. 9/15: LIKELY D
Sen-49: Inc.
David J Valesky (D,W) - Jeff Brown (R,I,C)
Joe Bruno was thinking about this race when he stirred up regional tensions in his speech last week. Brown is running an
Upstate First campaign while Valesky is focusing on reform in Albany. The Senate Republican Campaign Committee has poured
over $1,000,000 into this race so far. They have given Brown $400,000 in the first three weeks of October alone to run
television ads. The DSCC finally stopped sitting on its hands in October, and has given Valesky $315,000 since 10/3. The
financials for this race are mind boggling. Valesky has spent $695,000; Brown $1,237,000. Valeksy has $140,000 to Brown's
$188,000, but these numbers are miselading because Brown will probably dig further into the deep pockets of the SRCC in
the closing weeks.
In the TV ad war, Jeff Brown is going
negative, while
Valesky's
newest ad stays above the fray. The Syracuse Post-
Standard, the district's biggest newspaper, has
endorsed
Valesky, and expressed doubt over Brown's independence from Senate majority leader Joe Bruno.
Two utterly unsubstantiated rumors of polls have Valesky up by
17 and
20 points. Only the Hevesi controversy keeps this race at
TOSS-UP
10/18: Majority Leader Joe Bruno is so serious about retaking this seat that he has poured $769,000 into
Jeff Brown's campaign to unseat Freshman incumbent Dave Valesky. Both candidates have made TV ad buys. Brown focuses his
ads (may not work with firefox) on lower taxes and putting
"Upstate First". Elliot Spitzer stars in one of Valesky's four
ads, which focus on the Senator's reform record and are on the whole far more effective than Brown's. Meanwhile, EdPAC
just started running a pair of 15 second negative spots against Brown, focusing on his poor record on education and pulic school safety. Valesky, who has already been substantially outspent in this race, trails $170,000
- $68,000 in COH. The candidates debated last Thursday. TOSS-UP
9/15: In 2004, Valesky upset incumbent Republican and former Democrat Nancy Lorraine Hoffman in a three-way race,
44.7-44.1. Tom Dadey had unsuccessfully challenged Hoffman from the right in a bitterly contested primary, but had won the
Conservative and Independent nominations. Valesky carried the Onodonga County part of the district, which includes part of
Syracuse and its suburbs, by 9,000 votes, enough to offset his losses in the more rural portions of the district, and Dadey
siphoned off just enough right-wing voters. In the last year, Brown has raised around $160,000, but he has also gotten
$250,000 from the Republican State Senatorial Campaign Committee. He has already spent over $200,000 on the Republican
firm Cookfair Media. Valesky has rasied some $150,000 and has about that much on hand. In '04, Hoffman spent $250,000 to
win the Republican primary and then outspent Valesky $550,000-$200,000 in the general election. TOSS-
UP
Pickup Opportunities (listed from most likely pickup to least likely pickup):
Sen-35: Inc. Nicholas Spano (R,I,C) -
Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D)
News abounds in a rematch of the closest 2004 race in all of New York. Eliot Spitzer has cut another ad for Stewart-
Cousins, "
18 Votes", which is a big improvement over their
last effort. Anticipating another close election, both candidates have called for
independent
monitors for the upcoming election. The New York State GOP is up to the
old Republican tricks in the district, challenging Democratic
voters' registration.
Spano has
complained about the EdPac
attack ad, comparing the piece to the swift boat ads and accusing his opponent of taking "a page out of
Karl Rove's handbook." Spano, if you recall, was
rebuked by an independent campaign practices committee in September for running a
hit piece against Stewart-Cousins.
For one of the nastiest races in the state this year, the candidates positions on issues are actually
very similar. Spano, if
this is possible, has run to the left of Stewart-Cousins on social issues, and last week expressed support for full
marriage equality. And to add another bizarre
twist to the race, the New York Post on Tuesday published a very unflattering article about the Republican candidate titled
"BOOZE, GUNS, CIGARS ALL PART OF SPANO STRATEGY".
Spano gained an endorsement from the
Journal News, which he lost in 2004. As for money, Stewart-Cousins has
$177,000 on hand for the last week, while Spano, who has raised almost $150,000 from corporate donors in three weeks, and
has $550,000 for the stretch run. Th voter registration challenges in the district indicate that the Republican Party is
very nervous, but for now I'll keep this race at
TOSS-UP
10/18: Spano has poured $625,000 on television advertisements including one attack spot against Stewart-Cousins accusing her of allowing a homeless
shelter that housed--get this--sex offenders to be relocated in a municipality in the district. The Fair Campaign
Practices Committee called the spot "misleading and inflammatory", but Spano stood by the attacks. He has also been
push-polling
in the district (his campaign neither confirms nor denies they are responsible for the push-polls). Spano has raised over
$350,000 since July including $64,000 from Mayor Bloomberg's PAC, and has $330,000 on hand; Stewart-Cousins raised $150,000
in the same period and is sitting on almost $260,000. Spano has won just about all the endorsements, from the state AFL-
CIO and teachers unions to Empire Pride Agenda and pro-choice PACS to the League of Conservation Voters to the New York
Times. He hasn't won the endorsement of EdPAC, whose 30-second TV
spot here is as tough on Spano as the ones it is running in the 49th are on Brown. And just like Valesky in the 49th,
Stewart-Cousins is running an ad spot starring Elliot Spitzer. TOSS-UP
9/15: A rematch of one of the closest '04 races anywhere in the country should be the best Democratic pickup
opportunity in the State Senate. Three months after the 2004 election, Spano was officially declared the winner by a mere
18 votes. Spano has raised some $750,000 in the last year and has some $800,000 on hand. Stewart-Cousins has raised about
$150,000 and has about that much on hand. Spano outspent Stewart-Cousins $470,000-$245,000 in 2004. Spano again has the
backing of labor and pro-choice groups, but this year he has lost the ballot line of the Working Families Party without
which he would not have won in 2004. This race was a war in 2004, and it will be a war in 2006. TOSS-
UP
Sen-42: Inc. John Bonacic (R,I,C) -
Susan Zimet (D,W)
UPDATE: Like Brown and Bruno, Bonacic is rolling out the old
upstate versus the
city line, because regional politics is about all GOP State Senators have to run on. Eliot Spizter cut
another ad for a Democratic State Senate candidate, and now Bonacic
is getting worried. He has poured $188,000 into TV commercials to push his message (including
these two crummy spots), though he still has over
$567,000 in the bank to only $32,000 for Zimet. Bonacic has also run a filthy
hit piece against Zimet,
acccusing her of cutting police funding. Zimet won the
endorsement of the Poughkeepsie Journal, which cited her record as a county
legislator. Spitzer will make at least one stop in this district before election day, and on a hunch he'll make two, I'm
moving this race to
TOSS-UP
10/18: Since July, Zimet has reeled in $62,000 and the endorsement of the Poughkeepsie Journal; she has
$71,000 COH. Bonacic raised a healthy $109,000 (over $60,000 of that from PACs) and has $718,000 on hand. Zimet spent
$7,500 for an August 1 poll here and in early September spent $42,000 on TV advertising. Since then, Zimet has apparently
withdrawn $28,500 on TV ads. For his part, Bonacic has splurged $123,000 on Whelan Media Strategies, a GOP
consulting/advertising firm. LEANS R
9/15: Bonacic won his seat in 1998 and since then has not until this yea faced a democratic challenger. Zimet, New
Paltz Supervisor and former Ulster county legislator, is a strong candidate who is serious about winning. Democrats have a
1.5% registration edge here. Bonacic has a filthy $822,000 COH, but Zimet has done some excellent fundraising herself, raising over $100,000 in a
little less than three months. While it will not be easy to unseat Bonacic, Zimet has a chance with her superb fundraising
and decent name recognition. LEANS R
Sen-40: Inc. Vincent Leibell (R,I,C) -
Michael Kaplowitz (D,W)
The Poughkeepsie Journal
endorsed Kaplowitz over the 6-term
incumbent Leibell, citing Leibell's questionable appropriations and Kaplowitz's record as Budget Committee chairman in the
Westchester County legislature. Kaplowitz has not spent much on television ads as other candidates, and he paid for a poll
on 10/11. His fundraising has dried up somewhat and his COH is down to $25,000. Leibell got $94,000 worth of help from
the SRCC, and he has $114,000 on hand. He has spent $144,000 on TV ads so far. This race has jumped over the 2nd because
the Hudson Valley is looking really bad across the board for Republicans.
LEANS R
10/18: In late July, Kaplowitz's campaign was inert, and Leibell felt secure enough to make an $8,000
transfer to the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. Since then, Kaplowitz has raised over $120,000, Leibell has taken a
$70,000 transfer from the SRCC, and the state Democratic party has made the incumbents one of their top targets in 2006.
Kaplowitz perhaps more than any other Democrat is running his campaign against corruption and Albany in general. His
campaign stops so far have included a local pig farm, where he
highlighted his opposition to pork-barrel spending in Albany. His TV ad spot, The Taxpayers' Watchdog, highlights his record as a county
legislator and attacks the "most dysfunctional state legislature in America." LEANS R
Sen-02: Inc. John J Flanagan (R,I,C) -
Brooke Ellison (D,W)
Since our last update, Jimmy Siegel has produced two TV ads for Brooke Ellison, one
starring her mother and the other
starring Eliot Spitzer, and like her first ad, both focus on her
background. Ellison has spent $88,000 putting these ads on air, plus another $45,000 in direct mailings. Flanagan has
spent $167,000 on television advertising in October. Flanagan scored the endorsement of
Newsday
editorial board, which (not unfairly) criticized Ellison's campaign for being light on issues. The New York Times
expressed the same criticisms, yet endorsed Ellison, calling her "sharp and eloquent". The 2nd is getting more
media
coverage than any other senate races except the 35th and perhaps the 49th, but the GOP registration advantage here is
9% and that goes up to 14% if you throw in Independent and Conservative party voters. Brooke Ellison has six days and
$125,000 COH to win this seat. Flanagan has $236,000 COH to hold it.
LEANS R
10/18: I overlooked this race in September, but State Democrats have made supporting the candidacy of
quadriplegic and Harvard graduate Brooke Ellison against two-term incumbent John Flanagan a top priority in this cycle.
Ellison's campaign committee has taken in almost $300,000 during the cycle, and has almost $160,000 on hand, making the
best funded challenger except of course for Stewart-Cousins in the 35th. Flanagan has been equally successful raising
money, and the Senate Republican Campaign Committee provided him a $200,000 infusion at the end of September. Both
candidates are up with TV ads. One of Flanagan's ads caused a
stir back in September when a "Democrat" who claimed she was voting for Flanagan made a comment that she "had a huge
handicap" (of course she was talking about golf, but one wonders). Brooke Ellison just started running a great spot that
focuses on her personal story. Flanagan is now
running a spot attacking Ellison for her age and inexperience. Ellison does face an uphill fight here, as Republicans
have a 38-29 registration edge in the district that has given Flanagan 67% and 62% in his first two races. LEANS
R
The next three races are all potentially competitive, but largely neglected by the state party which is sitting on its
hands for 2008. These are the second-tier races, seats that are safe in most cycles, but become vulnerable in a strong
partisan wind. It is exactly such a wind we have this year, but the state party seems to want to wait until 2008 to
challenge for the senate. The wind may have died down by then, and if that happens, Lanza and Saland will be safe and the
Trunzo seat, should he retire, will be easier to defend. Spitzer will send the GOP machine into panic mode if he visits
these three districts in the closing week.
Sen-24: Andrew Lanza (R,I) -
Matthew Titone (D,W) - Charles Pistor (C)
UPDATE:Lanza appears to be in the drivers seat in this open-seat race on Staten Island, which has been somewhat
strangely quiet this election cycle. Fundraising and spending have picked up here, with Titone raising over $73,000 in the
last three weeks and spending some $47,000, including a $25,000 TV ad buy; you can see the ad
here. Titone has a workable $51,000 COH. Republicans are taking this race
seriously and on October 19, the SRCC wired in $200,000 to Lanza's campaign for a media buy. Lanza's ads can be seen
here and
here. Earlier this month, the SRCC spent over $125,000 on an
in-kind expenditure for Lanza. Lanza has $129,000 on hand. The New York Times complimented the candidates for a clean,
civil race, but threw their support behind Titone. This is an open seat in a Democratic district by voter registration and
I don't know why the State Democratic party isn't paying much attention to this race.
LEANS R
10/18: A couple weeks after Lanza fended off Conservative Party-endorsed Bob Helbock 53-47 in a hard-fought
primary, Helbock withdrew from the race and threw his support behind Lanza. The Conservative Party, however, did not
follow suit; instead they nominated Charles Pistor to replace Helbock on the ballot. Local issues and tensions will play
an important part of this race. Titone has raised over $50,000 since July to Lanza's $155,000, but Lanza has spent a
substantial amount of his money on the primary. Titone has $25,000 COH against $78,000 for Lanza, who has taken over
$15,000 from the Senate GOP Leadership. Titone, the first openly gay candidate on Staten Island, has won endorsement from
Empire Pride Agenda and swept the endorsements from the pro-choice PACs. Democrats ignore this seat at their own peril,
because with Lanza in his forties, this seat may not be open for another four decades. LEANS R
9/15: Republican John Marchi has held this seat since 1956, making him the longest-serving state legislator in the
country. His retirement this year will make this the most competitive open seat State Senate race of this cycle. Titone
was unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Lanza edged Helbock, who had Marchi's endorsement, by 6 points. As of
September 1, Lanza had $90,000 on hand to Helbock's $66,000. As of July, Titone had raised $37,000 and had $13,000 on
hand. The primary cost the Republicans a significant amount of money, and Helbock will remain on the November ballot on
the Conservative Line. Furthermore, Democrats have a slight partisan registration advantage in the district, 40-36.
Nevertheless, Staten Island can be hostile territory for Democrats, so this race leans slightly toward Lanza. LEANS
R
Sen-41: Inc. Stephen Saland (R,I,C) -
Brian Keeler (D,W)
Yet another Hudson Valley race pits a
GOP inumbent running on his appropriations against a Democratic
challenger running on platform of reform. This time, it's entrenched 8-term incumbent Stephen Saland facing his
toughest race yet against kossack
Brian Keeler. Saland has netted the
Poughkeepsie Journal endorsement. The top issue in this like in other upstate districts is
school tax reform. Saland has his fists around $167,000; Keeler, who has
done a TV ad buy to put the spots highlighted in the last update on the air, has $43,000.
LEANS R
10/18: For all the more competitve Republican seats in the State Senate, our own Brian Keeler is actually
keeping up best with the Republican fundraising machine in his district. Of the Keeler campaign's over $30,000 in
reciepts, 87% was from 281 individual contributions averaging about $91 per contribution. Saland's campaign took in just
over $35,000 in reciepts, more of which came from Majority Leader Bruno's PAC ($8,500) than from his 31 individual
contributions ($8,475), all of which were at least $100. Saland invested $120,000 in radio and TV advertising, and he has
another $215,000 in the bank. Keeler has $52,000 cash on hand. Perhaps with some more money, this ad can be on local television. LIKELY R
9/15: Saland is an 8-term incumbent whose politics have been slowly diverging from those of his district. The
Republican advantage in registration here has shrunk every year and will likely disappear by 2008. Saland won by 30 in
2004 against an abysmally funded opponent. As of July 15, Brian Keeler (dkos user NYBri) had raised over $30,000 in just three months' time, most of them small
donations (the filing report is 16 pages long). Saland has almost $350,000 COH. LIKELY R
Sen-03: Inc. Caesar Trunzo (R,I,C) -
Jimmy Dahroug (D) - David Ochoa (W)
Brooke Ellison in the 2nd is getting all of the attention and money, but Jimmy Dahroug was the only Long Island Democrat to
win the endorsement of
Newsday's editorial board. Newsday editor James Klurfeld
praised
Dahroug's understanding of education funding issues. The New York Times echoed this praise in their endorsement of
Dahroug, while calling Trunzo a "back-bencher who moonlights as a party boss" running on "yet another promise of yet
another slathering of home-district bacon."
On October 11, Trunzo spend $15,000 on a poll, and since then he has kept his funding steady and the SRCC has not come in
with money. He's sitting on almost $200,000. Dahroug has finally gotten some help from Democratic PACs, and has $69,000
on hand going into the last week. Dahroug pulled in 41% against Trunzo in 2004. This year, Trunzo is weaker, Dahroug has
more (though still very little) money, the Democrats are stronger at the top of the ballot, and the both the state and
nationa environment are extremely anti-incumbent and anti-Republican.
LEANS R
10/18: The national grassroots' attention has focused on the Keeler-Saland race in the 41st, but DFA-
endorsed Jimmy Dahroug also stands a chance to upset an entrenched Republican incumbent. Dahroug won the primary with a solid
ground game despite Ochoa and Montano outspending him better than 4:1. Dahroug reported $23,000 COH in early October,
which is more than he spent getting 41% of the vote in 2004. State Democrats seem to be ignoring this race, but the
Republicans aren't; Trunzo has taken $175,000 from the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. Ochoa spent over $130,000
losing the Democratic primary, and while he does not appear to be actively campaigning for election on the WFP ticket, he
has not endorsed Dahroug or helped him raised money and he is still boasting outdated primary endorsements on his website.
LIKELY R
9/15: The then 25-year-old grassroots candidate Dahroug pulled 41% of the vote in 2004 against Trunzo, a 17-term
incumbent Republican who will likely retire in the next few cycles. Dahroug beat back two primary challengers, garnering
38% of the vote to 35% for businessman David Ochoa and 27% for county legislator Ricardo Montano. Republicans have a 37-30
registration edge here, so it is an uphill battle, but this seat will soon be open as Trunzo is getting pretty old. Trunzo
has less COH than most Republicans, only $115,000 as of the end of August. Dahroug had about $17,000 COH as of 9/1; for
comparison Montano had about $98,000 and Ochoa was sitting on $139,000 COH. Ochoa beat Trunzo out for the WFP endorsement,
so he will still be on the ballot. This seat leans Republican, but Dahroug is a great candidate. There is an significant
Latin-American constituency here; about 1/6 of the population is Hispanic. LIKELY R
Sen-15: Inc. Serphin Maltese (R,I,C) -
Albert Baldeo (D)
Baldeo is self-funding; he raised $250 in the last two weeks, but loaned himself $40,000. Baldeo has actually outspent
Maltese in the last three weeks $44,000-$28,000. Baldeo has $42,000 on hand against only $58,000 for Maltese. I really
don't know what to make of this race. Maltese hasn't faced a Democratic opponent since 1992, when the district had far
fewer registered Democrats than it does today.
LIKELY R
10/18: For all of Baldeo's baggage, he is almost keeping up with Maltese in fundraising. Since mid-July,
Baldeo has raised $44,000 while Maltese has taken in about $75,000, $17,000 from other GOP leadership PACs. Baldeo has
$45,000 on hand to $76,000 for Maltese. Perhaps the most interesting part of this race are the photo-ops. Baldeo's
campaign website features the candidate posing for photographs
with just about every important New York Democrat, plus Bill Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Maltese's website includes a photo of him accepting the endorsement
of /Democratic/ assemblyman Anthony Seminerio, who is evidently
seeking a primary challenger in 2008. LIKELY R
9/15: Maltese, like Padavan, is a long-term Queens Republican incumbent representing an overwhelmingly Democratic
district who has run unopposed the last two elections. However, Maltese endorsed a Republican rival of Mayor Bloomberg in
2005, and since then Bloomberg has been seeking revenge. The nominally Republican mayor tried hard to recruit Democratic
Councilman Joseph Addabbo to run against Maltese, but Addabbo backed out, leaving attorney Albert Baldeo as the Democrat in
the race. Baldeo has raised only $35,000 to over $130,000 for Maltese. While Maltese is probably weaker than Padavan,
Baldeo is the reason this race isn't a better pickup opportunity than the 11th; during a primary campaign for a city
council seat last year he and an opponent engaged in a feud that led to both getting arrested. The district is 1/4
hispanic, which could play to Baldeo's advantage. This race leans for Maltese, and we could have done better than Baldeo
for a candidate. LIKELY R
Sen-11: Inc. Frank Padavan (R,I,C) -
Nora C Marino (D,W)
UPDATE: Padavan isn't even campaigning here. He has only $134,000 in the bank, but he won't run out soon as long as
he is spending just $8,000 per week. Marino raised $20,000 in the last three weeks and she has $39,000 COH for the last
week. Until Padavan starts campaigning, this campaign isn't worth listing.
LIKELY R
10/18: Since July Padavan has raised $120,000--$18,500 of which came from other Republican State
Senators--and has only $96,000 COH, on the low end for Republican State Senators. Marino has raised $28,000 in the same
period and has $30,000 COH. If the state Democratic party injects a little more money into this race, they can force Bruno
and the Senate Republicans to open their checkbooks for Padavan. LEANS R
9/15: Padavan is a 17-term incumbent who ran unopposed in 2002 and 2004 despite representing a district with a 53-21
Democratic registration advantage. Attorney Nora Marino is running against Padavan this year in the gerrymandered Queens
district. Marino has raised $21,000 in the last six months to Padavan's $25,000. Padavan has another $15,000 or so on
hand. Ethnically, the district is 26% Asian and 14% Hispanic. Padavan has the support of Mayor Bloomberg, and the
advantages of incumbency and name recognition, so I'd give him a slight edge here. LEANS R
Sen-56: Inc. Joseph A Robach (R,C,I,W) -
Willa Powell (D)
I wouldn't list this race except that the SRCC has poured almost $240,000 into the race for television ads. The Monroe
County Republicans pitched in another $100,000. Something tells me an internal poll might have spooked the Robach
campaign.
SOLID R.
10/18: SOLID R.
9/15: LIKELY R
Sen-52: Inc. Thomas W Libous (R,I,C) -
Mark Trabucco (D,W)
The Trabucco campaign is very short on cash, and Libous is pouring $68,000 into TV ads just to be safe.
SOLID R.
10/18: LIKELY R. 9/15: LIKELY
R
New York State Board of Elections
Abbreviations: D=Democratic, R=Republican, C=Conservative, I=Independence , W=Working Families