Chuck Todd:
Will, say, 220 House Democrats stay united and elect Pelosi speaker, or will enough conservative House Democrats break and elect a compromise Democrat as speaker? Even the threat of Democrats peeling off and working in collaboration with the Republicans to do so might be enough to encourage a serious challenge to Pelosi inside the Democratic caucus. For some reason Pelosi has a terrible relationship with the liberal blogs. There's a pretty decent chance liberal bloggers could start a grassroots effort to get behind Emanuel for speaker.
I'm not the netroots, I'm not the kingpin of all that is bloggy goodness, and I can't control what others do.
But a serious grassroots effort to get behind Emanuel for Speaker? Not in a million years. Rahm is too much of an ass. I'm glad he's our ass considering his fundraising prowess and many of his recruitment coups (like Madrid in NM-01). And if we take back the House next Tuesday, Rahm will have played an obviously key role in making it happen.
But Rahm's meddling in primary campaigns was obnoxious and pissed many off. His funding decisions rankle (think of that $3 million thrown at IL-06, and then consider how far that would've gone in expanding the playing field). And his ridiculous and way-too-public fights with Dean -- a real netroots hero -- put him at literally opposite ends of the front lines in the battle for our party's future.
So I'm pretty confident in predicting that bloggers 1) wouldn't launch a grassroots effort to promote a Rahm Speakership, and 2) would actively and energetically oppose it. Perhaps a Murtha could get some support, but I doubt it.
At this point, it's Pelosi or bust.
(Jonathan Singer has more.)