I have researched voter turnout for the past couple of midterm elections and there is no reasonable way to predict what voter turnout in Connecticut will be next Tuesday. In some states in the northeast mid terms see about a 40% turnout. While in the midwest states such as Iowa and Minnesota have seen turnout as high or above 55% in recent election cycles. Your guess might as well be as good as mine. Here I go making my prediction. Agree or not agree, this is what I think will happen. (As a side note the internal polls have this race under 4-5 points. So I believe some of these numbers I predict are fairly accurate.)
Factors for a Lamont Upset
A.)Iraq War
B.)Anti-Lieberman-Bush Sentiment
C.)Anti gop stay at home vibe
D.)44% Democratic turnout in August will only build higher for the general election among this faction of voters.
E.)Over 86,000 new registered voters in Connecticut since last May. 40% are Democrats and 47% are unaffiliated voters.
F.)Alan Schlesinger's ballot position compared to Connecticut For Lieberman's phony 7th or 8th line mockery.
G.)Superb gotv (micro-targeting) organization of the Lamontcampaign in cordination with the Connecticut Democratic offices.
Rough estimates of active voters + newly registered voters since May 06th.
Democrats (688,000)
Republicans (420,000)
Unaffiliated(908,000)
My prediction
Democrats 65% Turnout Rate (447,200)
Lamont (63)281,736
Lieberman (34)152,048
Schlesinger (3)13,416
Republicans 48% Turnout Rate (201,600)
Lamont (13) 26,200
Lieberman (60) 120,960
Schlesinger (27) 54,432
Unaffilated's 35% Turnout Rate (317,863)
Lamont (40) 127,145
Lieberman (47) 149,396
Schlesinger (13) 41,322
Lamont 435,081 (45%)
Lieberman 422,404 (43.7%)
Schlesinger 109,170 (11.3%)
Lamont wins by 1.3%