OK, I am finally making a commitment. I have hemmed and hawed on a lot of these races over the last few weeks. I have watched and waited for GOP incumbents to make their move. For the GOP money and infrastructure advantages to begin to payoff. So far, that hasnt happened, and its likely too late for it to happen at this point. I think the Democratic wave is coming, and its going to be big. Looking at this on a race by race basis, there are just too many Republican incumbents that are either trailing or under 50% at this point. With just a few days to go, and poll after poll showing voters overwhelmingly want Democrats in control, its impossible to deny that a Democratic tidal wave is about to hit.
In the Senate, Democrats need 6 seats to retake control. This week I have Democrats +6 in the Senate. Accordingly, I project Democrats will retake the Senate. Big moves this week - I now project Jim Webb (D) will knock off George Allen (R) in VA and that Bob Coker (R) will hold the TN seat for the GOP over Harold Ford, Jr. (D).
In the House, Democrats need 15 seats to retake control. This week I have Demcrats +33 in the House. Accordingly, I project Democrats will retake the House. Big moves this week - I am now projecting that Democrats will pick up all 4 contested Ohio seats and all 3 contested FL seats. I also am now projecting Democratic upsets in WY-AL and ID1. In Colorado, a brewing evangelical-gay sex scandal is going to suppress evangelical turnout in CO4 and lead to Marilyn Musgrave's upset defeat in CO4.
Below is my full analysis, race-by-race, in the Senate and House. RC indicates Ratings Change. Enjoy.
ELECTION NIGHT RACES TO WATCH
SENATE
RHODE ISLAND - LEANS D
Chafee (R)* vs Whitehouse (D)
10/17 - Chafee is battered and bruised after a vicious primary fight with a well-funded right wing challenger. To date, Chafee has refused to dip into his substantial personal fortune. Whitehouse is running a "Chafee is a vote for Republicans in control" campaign, which has legs in this deep blue state.
10/24 - Chafee finally dipped into his personal fortune. For Chafee it might be too little, too late. Polls consistently show Whitehouse ahead by 5 to 10 points.
11/2 - The Chafee name is likely not going to be enough to save him. Chafee got the endorsement of the Providence Journal, but polling continues to show Whitehouse leading.
PENNSYLVANIA - LIKELY D
Santorum (R)* vs Casey (D)
10/17 - Last month it appeared that Santorum was actually closing the substantial gap on Casey. This month the momentum appears to be swinging back towards Casey. With three weeks left to go, and no national Republican money invested in this race, it's hard to see how Santorum pulls this out.
10/24 - Two weeks out and Santorum can't seem to break 40%. National GOPers wrote this race off a long time ago, and no serious analyst believes Santorum is likely to recover - barring some unforeseen collapse by Casey.
11/2 - Santorum supporters had long promised that their guy would close strong and over-take Bob Casey. Unfortunately for the GOP, Santorum isn't closing strong, in fact Santorum's poll numbers continue to sink and his attacks have become more and more desperate.
NEW JERSEY - LEANS D
Kean (R) vs Menendez (D)*
10/17 - Still the Republicans best pick-up opportunity on the board. Before the Foley scandal broke Kean actually had a slight lead over Menendez. In the last few weeks, however, Menendez has fought back against ethics charges (mostly by leveling ethics charges against Kean), in blue NJ Menendez is the slight favorite.
10/24 - The blue leanings of NJ appear to finally be working for Menendez. A couple of independent polls have shown Menendez pulling away. The question now might be how much longer will the NRSC continue to pour money into this incredibly expensive market?
11/2 - Last week it looked like Menendez was finally putting some daylight between himself and his GOP challenger. This week, poll after poll, shows no daylight exists. Kean may be the only candidate in the country to be helped by the NJ Sup Ct's ruling on same-sex marriage. Conservatives in NJ have never liked the centrist Kean, but the ruling may get them a little more fired up. Week after week the Menendez corruption drip continues, but NJ traditionally breaks strong for Democratic candidates in the closing days (see Corzine Gov, Corzine Sen, and Lautenberg Sen races).
MARYLAND - LEANS D
Steele (R) vs Cardin (D)
10/17 - I have never thought this race would be competitive on Election Day. Michael Steele, his cutesy commercials notwithstanding, is an anti-choice, anti-stem cell research, anti-gay, pro-war Republican running in Maryland in a terrible year for Republicans. I don't see how Steele gets more than 45%.
10/24 - I thought Cardin had put this away last week, however Steele had a good week - highlighted by a powerful Steele ad turning Cardin's own words against him. This morning Cardin unveiled a moving stem cell research ad featuring Michael J Fox. The Fox ad may be enough to push the momentum back towards Cardin, but for now I am moving this from LIKELY D to LEANS D.
11/2 - Michael Steele may have run a "cute" campaign, but after watching him on Meet the Press its pretty clear he isn't ready for prime time. He is incredibly lucky he is facing Ben Cardin, who makes Al Gore look charismatic; almost any other D would be far ahead in this race. Steele has run a very clever campaign but his positions on the issues are way outside of the main stream in deep blue Maryland.
VIRGINIA - LEANS D (ratings change from LEANS R)
Allen (R)* vs Webb (D)
10/17 - This shouldn't have been a race. But for the unbelievable amount of unforced errors by Felix G. "George" Allen, this race would have been over a long time ago. The latest polling shows it's a dead heat, and Webb actually out-raised Allen by more than a million in Q3. This one is going to be a photo finish. On Election Night watch voter turnout in northern Virginia - it will be key to a Webb win.
10/24 - The latest polling makes it clear this is still a close race, but Allen appears to have stopped the bleeding from his earlier unforced errors. For Webb to win he needs a huge turnout in Northern Virginia and he needs to win among women (a traditional Democratic constituency). So far, polling show Webb tied with Allen among women - not a good sign for Webb.
11/2 - The tide appears to be turning against George Allen. After weeks of holding a small lead against Webb four consecutive polls show Webb moving into the lead. Webb's momentum in the race is unquestionable and it begs the question whether Allen's camp saw the tide moving against them. It would explain why the Allen camp decided to dump the Webb novel excerpts on the race. This race is going to be close, but as of today I am changing this race from LEANS R to LEANS D.
TENNESSEE - LEANS R (Ratings change from LEANS D)
Corker (R) vs Ford (D)
10/17 - This is another race that should have been off the board for Republicans. Republicans got the candidate they wanted out of the primary - moderate former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. It appears, however, that Republicans vastly under-estimated Harold Ford Jr. Ford has run the best campaign in the country and has turned usually Republican issues - like immigration - against Corker. Right now Ford leads by a couple points. It will be interesting to see what factor race plays on Election Night in TN.
10/24 - Unquestionably the nastiest, most contentious Senate race in the country. These two candidates genuinely do not like each other. Polling continues to show this race is incredibly tight. Corker seems to have a little momentum, but it will be interesting to see how Ford's "Memphis meltdown" (where he crashed a Corker press conference to confront him) will impact this race, if at all, and whether or not Corker will see any backlash from the incredibly mean-spirited RNC financed attack ads against Ford.
11/2 - Last Tuesday I rated this race LEANS D, then on Wednesday I changed it to LEANS R. I am sticking with LEANS R - for now. Ford has run a stellar campaign, but TN is really a difficult place for Dems, especially an African-American Dem. Sadly, the RNC's "bimbo" ad was probably effective in turning a sliver of rural whites against Ford - and in a race as close as this, every vote counts. Ford would have fared better in a race against either Van Hillary or Ed Bryant, the wingnut candidates the more moderate and well-funded Corker vanquished in the GOP primary.
OHIO - LIKELY D (ratings change from LEANS D)
DeWine (R)* vs Brown (D)
10/17 - In a sign of how bad things are for Republicans in Ohio, the NY Times ran a story this week claiming national Republicans were pulling the plug on planned ads for DeWine. Ken Mehlman denies these claims and says DeWine will be a "top priority." Whether or not the RNC plays here or not, DeWine is in big trouble. Brown has run a solid campaign and the environment for Republicans in Ohio is as bad as one can imagine.
10/24 - DeWine appears to have been left for dead by the national GOP. Sherrod Brown has run a strong populist-themed campaign and has hit DeWine hard over DeWine's role as a member of the Intelligence Committee.
11/2 - It's tough to tell which incumbent GOPer is fading faster - Santorum or DeWine. Ohio is a disaster for the GOP and the wheels have come off of the DeWine campaign. Polls are consistently showing Brown with a double digit lead over the incumbent. Its hard to see how DeWine changes the playing field in the last week.
MICHIGAN - LIKELY D
Bouchard (R) vs Stabenow (D)*
10/17 - This race was never really in question. Bouchard isn't a top flight candidate and Michigan, like the rest of the country, isn't feeling particularly pro-Republican these days. The Republicans best chance in Michigan is in the Governor's race (thanks to plenty of Amway money) but even that race is looking worse and worse for the GOP. Stabenow should win by double digits.
10/24 - Really no change here. Apparently Bouchard performed well in a debate with Stabenow - if this was August it might mater.
11/2 - Wonder if national GOPers regret wasting money on this race? Stabenow wins.
MISSOURI - LEANS D
Talent (R)* vs McCaskill (D)
10/17 - The closest race in the country looked like it might be breaking blue at the end of last week. A poll on Friday showed McCaskill ahead of Talent by 9 points - by far the most of the cycle. Polling on Monday, however, showed the race a dead heat. Given the national environment I think McCaskill has a sliver of a lead right now. Should be interesting to see how evangelical turnout impacts this race. Even a slight dip in turnout among Christian conservatives would be a killer for Talent.
10/24 - This race is ground zero for the debate over stem cell research. A stem cell ballot measure has caused serious headaches for incumbent Jim Talent, and now Michael J Fox shows up in an ad for McCaskill hitting Talent for his failure to support the potentially life-saving research. I am not sure one can underestimate the impact of the Fox ad. Talent had picked up a little steam towards the end of last week, but the Fox ad turned the race back towards McCaskill.
11/2 - This race is really a toss up. I give McCaskill a slight lead, but we may not know the winner of this race until Wednesday morning. McCaskill is helped by the stem cell research ballot issue in MO - which is likely to pass by 20 points. The Fox ad helped and then Rush Limbaugh's ridiculous comments helped keep the story alive for days. This is going to come down to GOTV. Will McCaskill be able to limit her losses in rural MO?
MINNESOTA - LIKELY D
Kennedy (R) vs Klobuchar (D)
10/17 - This race was supposed to be one of the best chances for a Republican pick-up in the country. That's not how it shook out. Right now, Klobuchar leads by double digits. In fact, in some polls she leads by as much as 20 points. With a competitive Governor's race and the potential for Dems to pick-up a couple of House seats, Minnesota could be a gold mine for Dems on Election Night.
10/24 - Kennedy has been reduced to airing commercials with the tag line "I am Mark Kennedy and I approved this message, even if it's not what you want to hear." Not a good sign. This race has been over for months.
11/2 - The MN polls close at 9 PM EST. The networks will call this race for Klobuchar at 9:01.
MONTANA - LEANS D
Burns (R)* vs Tester (D)
10/17 - Conrad Burns' campaign is running neck and neck with George Allen's campaign in the race to see who can make the most unforced errors. Tester was supposed to be the wrong candidate for Democrats, with most national Dems supporting his more moderate opponent in the Democratic primary. Tester has run a terrific campaign and set a Montana record for fund-raising. National Republicans are not playing in Montana, and barring some last minute collapse, Jon Tester is likely the next Senator from MT.
10/24 - Polling confirms Tester is ahead, thought by a slightly smaller margin then this time last week. No national money from the RNC or NRSC makes it clear they don't think this race is close.
11/2 - Burns has seen a slight up tick in his poll numbers, and I now think he is only the 4th most endangered GOP incumbent (behind Santorum, Brown, and Chafee). The NRSC is now playing here, pumping in cash into negative ads attacking Tester as a liberal. These NRSC ads began on Oct 31st - is it too little, too late for Burns?
ARIZONA - LEANS R (ratings change from LIKELY R)
Kyl (R)* vs Pederson (D)
10/17 - There are few disappointments on the board for Democrats in this cycle. Arizona, however, is the exception. National Democrats had hoped that former AZ Democratic Party Chair Jim Pederson, and his substantial personal fortune, would provide a serious challenge to Jon Kyl. Unfortunately for Democrats, Pederson has been unable to get any traction against Kyl - who is an able campaigner. It's hard to see how Pederson pulls this out.
10/24 - This only really gets interesting if there is a Democratic tsunami, otherwise Kyl looks more and more safe.
11/2 - OK, this race appears to be getting a little more interesting. The DSCC pumped in an additional $1 million in tv ads for Pederson, a move that left plenty of folks scratching their heads. Then the DSCC leaked an internal memo showing Pederson leading in polling of early voters (early voting in AZ started a couple of weeks ago). I still think Kyl hangs on, but could be more interesting than I first thought.
WASHINGTON - LIKELY D
McGavick (R) vs Cantwell (D)*
10/17 - Another coulda-shoulda-woulda for the GOP. Safeco Executive Mike McGavick was supposed to be one of the top Senate prospects for Republicans. Maria Cantwell barely won election in 2000, and given the hangover from the 2004 Governor's race debacle, Republicans were supposed to be in good shape here in 06. McGavick hasn't turned out to be the dream candidate, wasting valuable campaign time with a very public mea culpa regarding a drunk driving arrest and sleazy campaign tactics. Cantwell has capitalized on her opponent's missteps and on growing dissatisfaction with Republican policies in blue Washington to open a comfortable lead.
10/24 - Recent polling shows the bottom has fallen out of the McGavick campaign. I don't think there is much he can do to turn this around - a real missed opportunity for the GOP.
11/2 - This race is over. Cantwell will hold on.
CONNECTICUT - LIKELY I (ratings change from LEANS I)
Schlesinger (R) vs Lamont (D) vs Lieberman (I)*
10/17 - It's almost unfathomable the degree to which insurgent Ned Lamont squandered his momentum in this race. After embarrassing Joe Lieberman in the Democratic Primary, Lamont should have been in the cat bird's seat. Lamont, however, showed how green of a candidate he is by allowing Lieberman the time to regain his footing. Lieberman enjoys a comfortable lead in this race. The only wild card, and possibly Lamont's last chance, is the performance of Republican Alan Schlesinger. Schlesinger out-performed expectations in a 3 way debate this week and drew sharp contrasts between he and Lieberman on bread and butter GOP issues like social security, taxes, and immigration. If Schlesinger ticks up a few points, Lamont could get back into this race.
10/24 - Towards the end of last week there was buzz that Lamont might benefit from a surge in support for Alan Schlesinger - who outperformed expectations in the wild, 3-way debates. Unfortunately for the Lamont camp, polling has shown no real surge in the Republican's numbers, and worse the slight Schlesinger bump actually seems to have come out of Lamont's hide. Senator Lieberman looks safe.
11/2 - I saw Alan Schlesinger on MSNBC this morning talking about how he will be the next Senator from CT. Schlesinger's chances of winning this race are about the same chances I have of being the starting QB for the Redskins next week. Lamont let this one go. Will be interesting to see how Joe plays with his Democratic colleagues on the Hill next year, especially folks like John Kerry who came in and campaigned against him.
HOUSE RACES
POLLS CLOSING AT 6 PM -
INDIANA
2 Chocola (R)* vs Donnelly (D) Leans D
3 Souder (R)* vs Hayhurst (D) Likely R
7 Dickerson (R) vs Carson (D)* Likely D
8 Hostettler (R)* vs Ellsworth (D) Leans D
9 Sodrel (R)* vs Hill (D) Leans D
Analysis -
10/17 - Indiana has turned out to be what Democrats expected CT to be - a spot with three incumbent Republicans on the ropes. Unlike in CT, however, these aren't blue seats and the Dems running aren't liberals. A wildly unpopular Republican Governor is clearly hurting GOP chances in this traditionally red state. Indiana polls close early, if networks call these three races for the Dems early in the night, it could be a very long and painful night for the GOP.
10/24 - Two additions to the watch list from Indiana - IN3 where incumbent Mark Souder is rated LIKELY R and shockingly IN7 where incumbent Democrat Julia Carson appears to have a fight on her hands - LIKELY D. The endangered three GOP seats from the last analysis - IN2, IN8 and IN9 - continue to LEAN D.
11/2 - The Indiana Three (IN2, IN8, and IN9) are still in big time trouble. The Dems could get off to a fast start on the 7th with wins here in Indiana.
KENTUCKY
2 Lewis (R)* vs Weaver (D) Leans R (RC)
3 Northup (R)* vs Yarmouth (D) Leans R
4 Davis (R)* va Lucas (D) Leans D (RC)
Analysis -
10/17 - If there is a Democratic tsunami brewing we will know early. Realistically only Ken Lucas in KY4 should be competitive, however given the national landscape KY2 and KY3 are possibilities for Dems. Democratic candidates are helped by an unpopular, scandal-plagued GOP Governor Ernie Fletcher. If Dems pick-up 2 seats in KY then there is a good chance you are looking at a huge night for the Democrats - we are talking 30 or more seats.
10/24 - A ratings change in KY4. I am moving KY4 from LEANS D to LEANS R. As the national environment improves slightly for the GOP, races like KY4 move back their way. KY4 will be a nail-biter. Democrats in KY3 and KY2 need a wave to win.
11/2 - A ratings change in KY4. Last week I moved it from LEANS D to LEANS R, this week I move it back to LEANS D. Democrats all across KY are on the move. Conservative Democrat Col. Weaver in KY is making the incumbent GOPers Rep. Lewis sweat big time. I moved KY2 from LIKELY R to LEANS R. Finally, newspaper owner John Yarmouth is nipping at Ann Northup's heels in KY3. KY will be a serious gauge of the Democratic wave on election night.
POLLS CLOSING AT 7 PM -
GEORGIA
8 Collins (R) vs Marshall (D)* Leans D
12 Burns (R) vs Barrow (D)* Leans D
Analysis -
10/17 - Are these seats really in play? They certainly should be. Georgia is leaning more and more towards the GOP these days, and incumbent Republican Governor Sonny Perdue is at the top of the ballot and likely to cruise to re-election. However, Marshall and Barrow have run tough campaigns. If the GOP sneaks out a win in either of these districts, the road to control in the House gets complicated for Democrats.
10/24 - No real change here. Republicans really need to pick up one of these seats if they hope to hold on to the House on election day.
11/2 - Bush has been in Georgia stumping for Burns and Collins. It remains to be seen whether the President is a net positive, even in bright red GA.
FLORIDA
13 Buchanan (R)** vs Jennings (D) Leans D (RC)
16 Foley (R)*** vs Mahoney (D) Leans D
22 Shaw (R)* vs Klein (D) Leans D (RC)
Analysis -
10/17 - Two of these seats (FL13 and FL16) shouldn't be in play. Thanks to the antics of disgraced former Congressman Mark Foley (FL16) and mental case Senate nominee Congresswoman Katherine Harris (FL13) both of these seats are prime pickup potentials for the Democrats. FL13 is more salvageable for Republicans at this point then FL16. The GOP nominee in FL13 is a self-funder who can swamp Jennings in the closing days. FL22 should be a squeaker. Both Shaw and Klein have poured tons of money into this campaign. At one point FL22 was seen as one of the best Democratic pickup possibilities in the country. Right now I give Shaw (R) a slight advantage in this blue leaning district.
10/24 - Ratings change in FL13. Buchanan should have had this race in hand by now, but the environment for him has been terrible. As the Foley scandal subsides and conservatives begin to "come home" this race gets more complicated for the Democrats. I am moving FL13 from LEANS D to LEANS R. Keep an eye on FL22, this was always considered the Democrats best chance for a pickup in Florida and Klein appears to have regained some momentum.
11/2 - Ratings change in FL13 and FL22. Polls continue to show Christine Jennings ahead in FL13 regardless of all of Vern Buchanan's cash. This is Katherine Harris' old seat and she is clearly a drag on Republicans. I am moving FL13 from LEANS R to LEANS D. In FL22 I am finally moving this race from LEANS R to LEANS D. This is a Kerry district, in a bad year for Republicans, that borders the Foley district, and Democrat Ron Klein has run a super campaign. All of this leads me to believe that Clay Shawn's days in DC are numbered.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
2 Bass (R)* vs Hodes (D) Leans D
Analysis -
10/17 - NH2 wasn't on the radar for most analysts until the Foley scandal broke. Incumbent Charlie Bass (R) is a well-liked centrist who hasn't committed a fireable offense other than being a Republican. If 2006 is 1994, however, that might be enough. This is another one of those early races to watch. If its close, that's a horrific sign for the GOP. A Bass loss, which seems highly unlikely at this point, would signal a 40 to 50 seat gain for Democrats.
10/24 - No race has moved up faster then NH2. Last week I dubbed a Bass loss as "highly unlikely" this week I am changing the ratings for NH2 from LIKELY R to LEANS D. Two independent polls show Hodes with a lead over Bass. I still think if Hodes pulls this off its an incredibly ominous sign for the GOP - particularly northern GOPers.
11/2 - McCain and Laura Bush both came in for Bass this week and the NRCC dumped more cash in to this race. Bass is in a freefall, and I think Hodes pulls off an upset that weeks ago was unbelievable.
SOUTH CAROLINA
5 Norman (R) vs Spratt (D)* Likely D
Analysis -
10/17 - This race should probably have been dropped all together. Back in the good old days for the GOP, when the President's approval rating was only in the low 40s, this looked like a winnable race on paper. Lots of 08 GOP hopefuls have spent time stumping for Norman without any appreciable effect on the race.
10/24 - Yawn. This race is over.
11/2 - Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
VERMONT AL
Rainville (R) vs Welch (D)** Leans D
Analysis -
10/17 - If Karl Rove is right and GOP losses will be held to 8 to 10 seats in the House, then this race will be a barometer. In any other year Rainville would be ahead, but in dark blue VT in this electoral environment, even a stellar candidate like Rainville is struggling.
10/24 - I just don't know how Rainville wins in this environment. With previously considered safe New England GOPers - like Charlie Bass - in big time trouble, its hard to see how Rainville pulls this off.
11/2 - A big blue wave is going to hit the northeast on Nov 7th. I don't see how Rainville wins under these circumstances.
VIRGINIA
2 Drake (R)* vs Kellam (D) Leans R
10 Wolf (R)* vs Feder (D) Likely R
Analysis -
10/17 - VA2 provides Democrats with their best opportunity for a pick-up in the Commonwealth in years. The Democrat in VA2, Kellam, was ahead by a few points before being rocked by a disclosure that he was once arrested for assaulting a woman in college. This race is a dead heat. I have it Leans D only because of the national environment for GOPers. In VA10 Judy Feder ran an aggressive campaign hitting incumbent Wolf over high gas prices. As gas prices have fallen so has Feder's chances.
10/24 - Ratings change in VA2. I am moving VA2 from LEANS D to LEANS R. George Allen is not the drag he was a couple of weeks ago and Drake has been able to capitalize on the Kellam assault story.
11/2 - VA2 may be one of the VERY few districts where the John Kerry snafu may actually hurt Dems. This is a heavily military district. Will be close, but I give Drake the edge.
POLLS CLOSING AT 7:30 PM -
NORTH CAROLINA
8 Hayes (R)* vs Kissell (D) Leans R (RC)
11 Taylor (R)* vs Shuler (D) Leans D
Analysis -
10/17 - Former NFL QB Heath Shuler may finally bring down perennial target Charles Taylor (R) in NC11. I have yet to see a poll in the last 4 months that shows Shuler behind. Of course, I thought Patsy Keever had a shot to knock Taylor off in 2004. NC8 has been a bizarre race to follow. Once a high priority target for national Democrats, it completely fell off the radar when former Iraq War vet Tim Dunn dropped out of the Democratic primary. High school teacher Larry Kissell has run a text book shoe-string, grassroots campaign, however, and national Dems are again paying attention. Recent polling actually shows Kissell ahead in this traditionally Democratic district. Another one of those important races to watch - should Kissell prevail, its hard to see how Democrats don't have a huge night.
10/24 - Ratings change in NC8. Larry Kissell is completely broke. At one point last week it was reported that Kissell had $90 cash on hand. He has run a really nice grassroots campaign, but realistically he needs way more dough than he has - or is likely to get - to knock off Hayes. NC8 moves from LEANS R to LIKELY R. Heath Shuler continues to look good in NC11 and more and more pundits are putting this race into the likely Democratic pickup category. I rate it LEANS D and warn folks to watch out - Taylor spends his own money (and he has plenty of it) and isn't afraid to sling some mud.
11/2 - Taylor looks done in NC11. In NC8, I have a ratings change. I am moving NC8 from LIKELY R to LEANS R. Polling confirms that Larry Kissell, while totally broke, is neck and neck with his GOP opponent (actually 2 polls put Kissell ahead!). If Kissell pulls this off Dems are headed for 40 seats.
OHIO
1 Chabot (R)* vs Cranley (D) Leans D (RC)
2 Schmidt (R)* vs Wulsin (D) Leans D (RC)
15 Pryce (R)* vs Kilroy (D) Leans D
18 Padgett (R) ** vs Space (D) Likely D
Analysis -
10/17 - No where is the GOP brand more damaged then it is in Ohio. Scandal after scandal has rocked the OH GOP, and outgoing GOP Governor Bob Taft has approval ratings in the teens. Deb Pryce (R-OH15) is in big trouble. Pryce's challenger, Mary Jo Kilroy, has run a very smart, aggressive campaign (going as far to run Foley scandal ads on Christian radio). OH18 is probably a lost cause for Republicans at this point. This seat, held by soon to be incarcerated Bob Ney, is one of the best Dem pickup possibilities on the board. The GOP candidate in OH18, Joy Padgett, has struggled to gain traction as stories have surfaced about the bankruptcy of her company. OH1 and OH2 are extremely competitive races. If Dems pull off upsets of Chabot (OH1) and mean Jean Schmidt (OH2) then Ohio could be the undoing of the GOP majority.
10/24 - Ohio is a total disaster for the GOP, and the antics of crazed GOP nominee Ken Blackwell aren't helping. The Democrats could pickup as many as 4 seats in Ohio.
11/2 - It's official, I think the GOP will lose all 4 competetive House seats in OH. I am moving OH1 and OH2 from LEANS R to LEANS D. It's hard to believe things have gotten worse for the GOP over the past week, but they have. The GOP in Ohio is an unmitigated disaster, and the Democratic wave will take out all 4 House seats, the Senate seat, the Governor's mansion, and most of the statewide elected races. Ugly for Republicans all around.
WEST VIRGINIA
1 Wakim (R) vs Mollohan (D)* Likely D
Analysis -
10/17 - Another squandered GOP pick-up opportunity. Here's a race where the "culture of corruption" could have worked against the Democrat (ethically challenged incumbent Alan Mollohan is the subject of a federal probe). However, Chris Wakim, the Republican challenger, has never gotten traction. Mollohan is likely in safe shape and is helped by having Democratic Senator Robert Byrd at the top of the ticket.
10/24 - No real change here.
11/2 - Starting to remind me of SC5. A real snoozer.
POLLS CLOSING AT 8 PM -
CONNECTICUT
2 Simmons (R)* vs Courtney (D) Leans D
4 Shays (R)* vs Farrell (D) Leans D
5 Johnson (R)* vs Murphy (D) Leans D (RC)
Analysis -
10/17 - Once believed to be ground zero in the Democrats efforts to re-take the House, CT is now not quite as pivotal. Frighteningly for the GOP, its possible that 2 or even all 3 of the incumbent R House members could win re-election and Nancy Pelosi could still end up Speaker. Joe Lieberman's independent Senate candidacy clearly has helped all 3 of the CT GOPers. If these three survive, Democratic activists who pushed the Lamont run can blame themselves. That having been said, I still think Rs are in big trouble in CT2 and CT4. CT4 is particularly problematic for the GOP because Chris Shays (R) is totally unpredictable and shuns outside party help.
10/24 - Bizarre behavior by Chris Shays may have killed any chance he had to hold on to this seat. First he tries to defend Denny Hastert by harkening back to Chappaquiddick, then he denies that what happened at Abu Grahib was torture. Not helpful, but given Shays erratic behavior, not entirely surprising.
11/2 - Rating change in CT5. Two independent polls have shown Republican Nancy Johnson trailing her Democratic opponent Chris Murphy. It looks like the entire GOP delegation in CT will be wiped out.
ILLINOIS
6 Roskam (R)** vs Duckworth (D) Leans D (RC)
8 McSweeney (R) vs Bean (D)* Likely D
10 Kirk (R)* vs Seals (D) Likely R
14 Hastert (R)* vs Laesch (D) Likely R
Analysis -
10/17 - I can't believe IL14 is even on this list. If someone would have told me even a month ago that Speaker Hastert's seat would make it's way on to any list of close races, I would have told you that you were insane. That having been said, look for Hastert to hold on in IL14, though the margin may be closer than anyone ever would have thought. IL6 is going to be another photo finish of a race. The seat, vacated by Henry Hyde (R), has been nip and tuck all along. Democrats, in a rare example of pragmatism, were smart enough to choose disabled Iraq War vet Tammy Duckworth, who has been a media darling. IL8 was supposed to be a prime target for Republicans. Melissa Bean, the Democratic incumbent in IL8, was thought to be a one and done member. Bean, however, has run a great campaign and adeptly moved to the political center in this right-leaning district.
10/24 - Ratings change. On Sunday I moved IL6 from LEANS D to LEANS R. I continue to believe Roskam enjoys a very tiny lead in this race. Duckworth got a big boost from some heavy hitters this week - with both President Clinton and Michael J Fox coming in to stump for her. IL10 shows up on the list for the first time as LIKELY R. Moderate GOPer Mark Kirk could have a closer than expected race on his hand in this Democratic-leaning district.
11/2 - Ratings change in IL6. Tammy Duckworth's campaign has been bailed out of financial straits by the DCCC, which poured $3 million (yes you read that right) into this race in the last week. Polls show this race very close, but in this environment I think Duckworth has an advantage. I am moving IL6 from LEANS R to LEANS D. IL10 may be worth watching too. If there is a Democratic tidal wave, Mark Kirk would be one of the last centrist Rs standing. If he goes down, this is a tsunami not a wave.
NEW JERSEY
7 Ferguson (R)* vs Stender (D) Lean R
Analysis -
10/17 - Stender is a darling of the liberal blogosphere who has run a solid campaign. While NJ is certainly trending bluer these days, I still think Ferguson holds on. I have the race ranked as Lean R based on polling that shows Stender within a few points. Without that poll I would have ranked this a Likely R race.
10/24 - The NJ Supreme Court is expected to hand down a same-sex marriage ruling on Wed of this week. That ruling could fire up evangelicals and doom Stender's campaign.
11/2 - OK, NJ7 is getting fun. Apparently, internal polling for both camps show this race VERY close, and independent polling has shown Stender within 2 points. I give Ferguson the slight edge, but don't be surprised to see Stender pull an upset on Nov. 7th.
PENNSYLVANIA
4 Hart (R)* vs Altmire (D) Leans R
6 Gerlach (R)* vs Murphy (D) Leans D
7 Weldon (R)* vs Sestak (D) Likely D
8 Fitzpatrick (R)* vs Murphy (D) Leans R
10 Sherwood (R)* vs Carney (D) Likely D
Analysis -
10/17 - Pennsylvania may end up being the grave yard of the GOP majority. At the beginning of the cycle only Jim Gerlach in PA6 was thought to be in serious trouble. Now it appears likely that Curt Weldon (PA7) and Don Sherwood (PA10) are finished. Both have been hit with scandals, and Sherwood has run out of money. Neither Weldon nor Sherwood seemed ready for real challengers. Gerlach in PA6 has run a terrific campaign against an opponent, Lois Murphy, who can be shrill at times. Gerlach even held a slight lead in the pre-Foleygate era. The Foley scandal forced Gerlach to cancel an event with House Majority Leader John Boehner and has likely pushed this race to the Democratic column. PA8, and potentially PA4, could also be in play for the Democrats.
10/24 - Ratings change. Things are just going from bad to worse for GOPers in PA. The Senate and Governor's races are total lost causes for the GOP and are likely going to be a serious drag on House races. I am moving PA4 from LIKELY R to LEANS R based on independent polling showing Melissa Hart with only a sliver of a lead.
11/2 - The GOP better pray that PA doesn't look like OH on Election Night. National Republicans pulled out of PA7 and PA10 this week, essentially conceded these seats. PA6 is probably beyond help too. PA4 and PA8 remain in play.
TEXAS
17 Taylor (R) vs Edwards (D)* Leans D
22 Sekula-Gibbs (R)** vs Lampson (D) Leans D (RC)
Analysis -
10/17 - The GOP, compliments of Tom DeLay, gave away TX22. TX22 is the safest Dem pickup predicted. Look for Libertarian Bob Smithers to finish ahead of GOP-endorsed write-in candidate Sekula-Gibbs. TX17 was another early GOP pick-up possibility. TX17 GOP candidate and Iraq War vet, Van Taylor, however, is not a polished candidate. Look for Democrat Chet Edwards to hold on - at least for one more cycle in this increasingly red district.
10/24 - No real changes here.
11/2 - Ratings change. OK, so polling in TX22 shows write-in Shelley Sekula-Gibbs out performing expectations. Accordingly, I am moving TX22 from LIKELY D to LEANS D. While Sekula-Gibbs may make it closer than expected I just don't see how we can expect a plurality of voters in TX22 correctly typing in her name (that's right they have to type it in letter by letter on the machines in TX) on Election Day.
POLLS CLOSING AT 9 PM -
ARIZONA
1 Renzi (R)* vs Simon (D) Leans R
5 Hayworth (R)* vs Mitchell (D) Leans D (RC)
8 Graf (R) vs Giffords (D) Likely D
Analysis -
10/17 - Once ultra-conservative former state Rep. Randy Graf won the Republican primary in AZ8, national Rs immediately abandoned this race. AZ8 should be a pickup for the Dems, who have fielded a high caliber candidate in Gabby Giffords. Graf has surged a little in the closing days as his immigration message appears to be gaining some traction. Unfortunately for Graf and the GOP, it likely too little too late. Almost no other race in the country has caught me as flat-footed as AZ5 has. Initially Democrats had high hopes for Mitchell, the Democratic challenger. Before the Foley scandal, however, polling showed Mitchell far behind incumbent JD Hayworth. Post-Foley polls have shown a dramatic turnaround for Mitchell and this race should be close.
10/24 - Ratings change. Scandal has put another GOP seat in play. Word is out that Rick Renzi (R-AZ1) has hired an attorney as a result of an investigation into whether he authored legislation to help a company that his dad worked for. The timing for AZ GOPers couldn't be worse. I am moving AZ1 to LEANS R. If this thing blows up on Renzi, it could end up costing the GOP 3 seats in Arizona - all but guaranteeing Democrats re-take the House.
11/2 - Ratings change. AZ5 is moving against the GOP incumbent JD Hayworth. The DCCC is pouring cash into this seat big time. Independent polls show Mitchell ahead of Hayworth by a couple points. I am moving AZ5 from LEANS R to LEANS D. In AZ1 Rick Renzi appears to be surviving a bubbling scandal.
COLORADO
4 Musgrave (R)* vs Paccione (D) Leans D (RC)
5 Lamborn (R)** vs Fawcett (D) Likely R
7 O'Donnell (R)** vs Perlmutter (D) Leans D
Analysis -
10/17 - It's a testament to how bad things have gotten for the GOP that 3 CO seats, 2 that should be safe, are in play in 06. CO7 has always been the Dems best pickup possibility in CO, and that remains the case today. Ultra-conservative Marilyn Musgrave, a lightning rod for criticism given her high profile anti-gay crusade, is in the fight of her life with former pro basketball player Angie Paccione in CO4. Musgrave's numbers have rebounded somewhat in the last couple of weeks, but this race should be close. CO5 shouldn't be on this list. CO5 is a reliably Republican district. Thanks to a nasty, divisive primary and a stronger than expected Democratic challenger, however, national Rs and Ds are investing in this race. If CO5 goes to the Democrats, then there is no question about a Democratic tsunami.
10/24 - Ratings change. It appears Lamborn has gotten his legs back under him in CO5 and that conservatives are "coming home" in this uber-red district. I am moving CO5 from LEANS R to LIKELY R. CO4 - Musgrave - also appears to be picking up steam against Paccione.
11/2 - Ratings change. Things are getting ugly in CO. A couple of polls now show Marilyn Musgrave trailing Angie Paccione in CO4. A breaking scandal in CO involving a gay hooker and the head of the National Evangelical Association, headquartered in CO, is dominating the news in CO. This aint helpful to Musgrave in motivating her evangelical base. As a result, I am moving CO4 from LEANS R to LEANS D.
LOUISIANA
3 Romero (R) vs Melancon (D)* Likely D
Analysis -
10/17 - Once considered a high priority target for national Republicans. Today this race is safely in hand for the Democratic incumbent.
10/24 - No real changes here.
11/2 - Nothing new.
MINNESOTA
1 Gutknecht (R)* vs Walz (D) Leans R
6 Bachmann (R)** vs Wetterling (D) Leans R (RC)
Analysis -
10/17 - No challenger has gained more from the Foley scandal then Democrat Patty Wetterling in MN6. Wetterling, a national child safety advocate, has lept ahead of ultra-conservative state legislator Michelle Bachmann in the wake of the Foley House page scandal. Two recent polls show Wetterling building a solid lead over Bachmann. MN1 is another one of those surprise races. Polling shows the Dem challenger, Walz, running neck and neck with incumbent Republican Congressman Gil Gutknecht. At the beginning of this election cycle no one thought the GOP would be playing defense in MN1.
10/24 - MN6 will be one of the closest races of the night. The winner of the Wetterling - Bachmann race could determine which party controls the House. Right now Wetterling enjoys a tiny lead in this race.
11/2 - Ratings change. MN6 - As the Foley scandal has subsided, voters in MN6 are back to the bread and butter issues, and these aren't Wetterling's strengths. Independent polls have shown Bachmann moving out to a small lead. I am moving MN6 from LEANS D to LEANS R.
NEBRASKA
1 Fortenberry (R)* vs Moul (D) Likely R
3 Smith (R)** vs Kleeb (D) Leans R (RC)
Analysis -
10/17 - This is a tough district for Democrats. Lt. Gov. Maxine Moul has run a spirited campaign, but is unlikely to win barring a Democratic tidal wave.
10/24 - I don't see Dems pulling this off.
11/2 - NE3 shows up on our list for the first time as LEANS R. Club for Growth backed Adrian Smith (R) is just to the right of Ghengis Khan. His far right politics appear to be turning off voters, even in this conservative district. Telegenic rancher Scott Kleeb has run a great campaign. I still think Smith wins, but this one will be close. Rating - LEANS R.
NEW MEXICO
1 Wilson (R)* vs Madrid (D) Leans D
Analysis -
10/17 - Heather Wilson has managed to hold on to this Democratic leaning seat for a couple of cycles now. Her luck, however, is likely coming to an end. Patsy Madrid was the challenger national Dems wanted and while this race has been close, recent polling seems to show the race breaking for Madrid.
10/24 - Polling shows Madrid holding a small but consistent lead in this race.
11/2 - The national environment really stinks for Heather Wilson. Polls continue to show Madrid with the lead. Madrid aint the best campaigner, but the wind is at her back.
NEW YORK
3 King (R)* vs Mejias (D) Likely R
19 Kelly (R)* vs Hall (D) Leans R
20 Sweeney (R)* vs Gillibrand (D) Leans D (RC)
24 Meier (R)** vs Acuri (D) Leans D
25 Walsh (R)* vs Maffei (D) Leans R (RC)
26 Reynolds (R)* vs Davis (D) Leans D
29 Kuhl (R)* vs Massa (D) Leans R
Analysis -
10/17 - My God, where to start in NY? The NY GOP is an unmitigated disaster. GOP Senate and Gubenatorial hopefuls will likely get only a third or so of the vote on November 7th. That's a rough place for down ticket House members to be. NY26 and NY24 are the best Dem pickup possibilities, though all 7 of these races are in play. If Dems pull an upset of previously considered safe Rs - like King in NY3 or Kelly in NY19, then the GOP is looking at a total national disaster.
10/24 - Ratings change. There are almost no safe GOP House seats in NY, and Sue Kelly (NY19) didn't do herself any favors by ducking out of a televised debate and then getting caught on camera literally running away from reporters. I have moved NY19 from LIKELY R to LEANS R. The Democrat, John Hall of the 70s band Orleans, is way under-funded, so it remains to be seen if he can capitalize on the Kelly missteps. NY26 remains LEANS D but barely. Democrat Jack Davis is a bizarre candidate - think Ross Perot but weirder - and Tom Reynolds appears to have momentum.
11/2 - Ratings change. In NY20 incumbent Republican John Sweeney is in big time trouble. This week revelations that his wife called the police because he was "throwing her around" came out. Not helpful. Especially not in this environment. I am moving NY20 from LEANS R to LEANS D. I am also moving NY25 from LIKELY R to LEANS R. New polling says this thing is close. In a real tsunami, all these R seats are gone.
WISCONSIN
8 Gard (R)** vs Kagen (D) Leans D (RC)
Analysis -
10/17 - WI8 has flown under the national radar. This competitive race to replace Republican Congressman Mark Green (who is running for Governor) should be a nail-biter. National Dems don't have to pay to play here because Kagen is a self-funder.
10/24 - Ratings change. I am moving WI8 from LEANS D to LEANS R. Kagen didn't do himself any favors by referring to his being late for an event as "Injun time." This is a R leaning district by nature, and Kagen can't afford silly unforced errors like that.
11/2 - Ratings change. WI8 goes from LEANS R to LEANS D. Kagen appears to have recovered from the "injun time" comment, and polling confirms Kagen has a slight lead.
WYOMING AL
Cubin (R)* vs Trauner (D) Leans D (RC)
Analysis -
10/17 - Incumbent Congresswoman Barbara Cubin is an under-achiever in this reliably Republican district. Democratic challenger, Gary Trauner, has run an aggressive campaign that has actively sought out GOP support. This race could be a late-night shocker.
10/24 - Barbara Cubin may be on her way out in what should be a safe R seat. In a debate this week Cubin told a wheel-chair bound opponent (the Libertarian candidate) that "if you weren't in that chair, I would slap you." Maybe the single meanest and dumbest comment of the political season and one that could cost Cubin her job.
11/2 - Ratings change, and a shocking one. Republican Barbara Cubin has given this seat away. A perennially terrible campaigner, Cubin has run an especially inept campaign. I am moving this race from LEANS R to LEANS D.
POLLS CLOSING AT 10 PM -
IOWA
1 Whalen (R)** vs Braley (D) Likely D (RC)
2 Leach (R)* vs Loesback (D) Leans R
Analysis -
10/17 - IA1 has long been seen as a top pickup possibility for Democrats. I am tempted to move IA1 to Likely D - but a bizarre Zogby poll showed Whalen leading (no other poll has shown Whalen even within the MoE). In IA2 perennially endangered GOP centrist Jim Leach thought he was escaping in 06, as Dems failed to recruit a high profile challenger. Recent polling, however, has shown that Loesback, a lightly considered Democrat, is within striking distance. Considering the Democratic nature of this district, national GOPers should be worried.
10/24 - No real changes here.
11/2 - Ratings change. National GOPers pulled out this week of IA1. A new Zogby poll was the total reverse of the bizarro Zogby poll from a couple of weeks ago that showed Whalen ahead of Braley. I am moving IA1 from LEANS D to LIKELY D.
IDAHO
1 Sali (R)** vs Grant (D) Leans D (RC)
Analysis -
10/17 - Someone at the DCCC should write a personal thank you to the right-wing Club For Growth. If the Republican was anyone else but Club for Growth-backed Bill Sali, this race wouldn't even be on this list. Sali is a flame-thrower despised by many in his own party. Sali has struggled to raise money and faces a difficult challenge from moderate Democrat Grant. Could be another late night surprise.
10/24 - The DCCC is running a very powerful ad against Sali using the words of other elected Republicans in the state against him. Sali might be the only Republican in Idaho incapable of holding this seat. Keep a close eye on this race.
11/2 - Ratings change, and this one is almost as shocking as the Wyoming race. An organization known as "Republicans for Grant" began airing ads across ID1 this week. Bill Sali is a total disaster. This should be an uber-safe seat for Republicans. Its aint. I am moving this race from LEANS R to LEANS D.
NEVADA
2 Heller (R)** vs Derby (D) Likely R
3 Porter (R)* vs Hafen (D) Likely R
Analysis -
10/17 - I am not sure how much I really think either of these races is in question. Any normal year Heller (NV2) and Porter (NV3) would be cruising in these traditionally Republican districts. 2006, however, is not any other year. If 2006 turns out to look a lot like 1994 or 1974, then maybe NV2 and NV3 are in play for Democrats.
10/24 - Will be interesting to see how the developing scandal involving Congressman Gibbons - currently the GOP candidate for Governor - will impact either of these races.
11/2 - Unless the scandal involving GOP Gubenatorial candidate Jim Gibbons has a down ticket effect, I think GOPers hold on to NV2 and NV3.
POLLS CLOSING AT 11 PM -
CALIFORNIA
4 Doolittle (R)** vs Brown (D) Likely R
11 Pombo (R)* vs McNerny (D) Leans R
50 Bilbray (R)* vs Busby (D) Likely R
Analysis -
10/17 - Considering how gerrymandered the California districts are, it is amazing any CA race is competitive. Incumbent Congressman/rancher/renowned endangered species hunter Richard Pombo is in the most trouble of the Cali 3. In CA4 Doolittle faces increasing ethics questions about his role in the Jack Abrahamoff scandal. Francine Busby, challenging Brian Bilbray in CA50, had her best chance to pull an upset in this suburban SD district back in the spring special election to replace felon/former Congressman Duke Cunningham.
10/24 - National Democrats are finally starting to put money into CA11. It remains to be seen if its too little, too late to make a real difference.
11/2 - Democrats are drooling over the prospects of taking out Pombo in CA11 and Doolittle in CA4. The reality is that they are likely to come up a little short.
WASHINGTON
8 Reichert (R)* vs Burner (D) Leans D
Analysis -
101/7 - Microsoft millionaire Darcy Burner has run a terrific campaign against Dave Reichert in WA8. Reichert won election in 2004 capitalizing on his role in capturing the notorious Green River killer. It remains to be seen how much Reichert can continue to squeeze out of that.
10/24 - I continue to believe Burner holds a sliver of a lead in this swing district.
11/2 - Reichert is moving up against Burner. I still think Burner is slightly ahead, but its going to be really close.