Harold Ford can definitely still win this race.
I know that's contrary to polls and conventional wisdom at this point. TN is a red state. Harold Ford is a black Democrat. He's behind in polls, down in money, and short on time. Perhaps most importantly, polls in the past have often overstated the support level for African-American candidates. I can't argue with any of that. But this race is definitely not out of reach.
This election is, perhaps more than anywhere else, one where the ground game on 11/7 can make a huge difference. Ford's base is the African-American community of Memphis, which routinely fails to turn out on E-Days, particularly in midterms. If Ford has the resources to get those voters to the polls and - more importantly - make sure there are poll monitors in place to make sure these voters don't get disenfranchised, Ford has a very real chance to win this.
There are several reasons for this.
First, Gov. Phil Bredesen is cruising to reelection, and will draw many Democrats to the polls who may not otherwise show up to just vote for Ford. Corker has no such "running mate" at the top of the ticket. He's the only drawing card GOPers have on the ballot.
That leads right into point two: Bob Corker is not an exciting candidate to the conservative base. He was torn apart for months by Bryant and Hilleary about his positions and record on abortion and taxes. Many conservatives simply aren't going to turn out to vote for him, and I have a feeling that's not showing up as much as it should in polls.
Third, Democratic turnout in the stronghold of Memphis will likely be even further heightened by the close House contest to succeed Ford. White and black Democrats are often at odds with one another in the Memphis area, but everyone has a candidate to come out and vote for in this House race. This is huge - it means the most heavily Democratic district in the state is the only one with a competitive House race. That's big for turnout.
Finally, Ford's negatives are not nearly as low as one might expect from a black Democrat running in a ruby red state. He has managed to keep his favorable/unfavorables consistently at +10 or more, which is an amazing accomplishment for any Democrat in the South these days.
We NEED this race to get a working majority in the Senate. Between Jim Pederson's personal wealth and today's infusion of money in AZ, we are going to have all the money we need there. We simply don't need to put our money into that race.
I know that Ford is not a perfect progressive. He is a moderate at best on gay marriage, and made a very bad snap judgment on the NJ decision last week.
I am an active member of the LGBT community in Philadelphia, and I hate that Ford has demagogued on the wrong side this issue, but I do realize that he NEEDS to project a socially conservative image to have a chance as a black Democrat in Tennessee. Also, keep in mind that he voted against banning gays from adopting, and has expressed support for civil unions.
He's with us on the vast majority of issues, and it's hard to expect a black Tennesse Democrat from Memphis to run a statewide race on a solidly progressive platform. Once he gets out of campaign season, he'll be with us even more - keep in mind that he's the most progressive member of the TN Congressional delegation.
Even if you aren't sold on that, and even if you dislike Ford's stances on other issues as well, remember this - Ford is light years better than Corker.
This would be the first time since the institution of popular elections for the Senate that there would be two African-American Senators and four minority Senators (Obama, Salazar, Menendez, Ford) in the Senate at the same time. Ford will be a good Democratic Senator if elected. And we need to get this seat to ensure control of the Senate.
The ground game is going to be the ballgame in Tennessee. We can and must win this race.
Please do what you can to make sure that we do.
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UPDATE
Just a reminder - there ARE polls showing this one close. I frankly am wary of both the CNN and Reuters/Zogby polls on this race. The most recent polls from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, and Ford's pollster all have him within the margin or ahead. Corker's internals apparently show this as only a 2-point race. And there hasn't been a Mason-Dixon poll on this race in two weeks.
This game is not over. Fight it to the finish.