Kos asked for some analysis in this race, and I have posted two previous diaries, crunching the numbers, parts 1 and 2. In part 3 I explore how voter turnout will affect the race. Follow me on the flip...
After some analysis, I am convinced that turn out will be the key to winning this race. The CW is that Schlesinger will get 30 to 40% of the Republican vote, and that will spell defeat for Lieberman.
I'm not so sure of that for several reasons. First, Schlesinger, even after his performance in the debates, has not really gained that much ground with Republicans. Second, the ground he has gained, has been at the expense of both Lieberman and Lamont. Therefore, in this model, I am assuming that Schlesinger gets no more than 30% of the Republican vote, while Lieberman gets 60% and Lamont holds on to 10%.
As for Democrats and Indies, I am assuming a 65/35 split for Lamont and Lieberman respectively (Schlesinger has yet to get even 1% of Dems in any poll) and a 52/42/6 split for Lieberman, Lamont and Schlesinger respectively among Indies. The Indie split assumes that Lamont is going to pick up most of the undecided Indies still out there, while Schlesinger's share is consistent with recent polling.
The numbers below represent the percentage turnout for each party, and each candidates share of that vote. In this scenario, which assumes a 55% Dem, 45% Indie, 40% Rep turnout, LIeberman ekes out a narrwo win by 12,000 votes.
party Lieberman Lamont Schlesinger
Rep 435000 40%=174000 104400 17400 52200
Dem 700000 55%=385000 134750 250250 0
Ind 900000 45%=405000 210600 170100 24300
2035000 964000 449750 437750 76500 964000
But, if Republican and Independent voters are depressed, by as little as 5% each from the above scenario, Lamont wins, using the same model:
party Lieberman Lamont Schlesinger
Rep 435000 35%=152250 91350 15225 45675
Dem 700000 55%=385000 134750 250250 0
Ind 900000 40%=360000 187200 151200 21600
2035000 897250 413300 416675 67275 897250
So, the bottom line here is that this race is still a possibility. If Lamont can break the 65% mark with Dems, and/or Schlesinger can break the 30% mark with Republicans, Lieberman may be in for a surprise come Tuesday. But I think it will come down to voter turn out, can Lamont get his Democratic base out, and hold Lieberman to less than 35%?