As we head into the final weekend of Election 2006, it is...I must say...an awfully quiet polling day here at FTP.
For the second day in a row, we have no national surveys, and we have new numbers in 32 individual races. While this is not a light day, it is lighter than I expected four days before the election. Oh well, less work for me (!).
The gory (or...not so gory) details after the jump....
INDIVIDUAL RACES
I fully expect this election to turn me inside out between now and Tuesday. Yesterday, I was convinced we'd pick up 60 seats. Today, I'll be happy if we win races where we are unopposed. When it gets to times like these, it helps to look at the ole momentum meter for a dose of hope, or grim reality.
Today's 32 races break down similar to yesterday--no real signs of Democratic dominance, but also no real signs of Republican resurgence. Eleven races have Democratic momentum, nine races have Republican momentum, and twelve races are essentially stagnant.
AK-GOV: Palin (R) 48%, Knowles (D) 43% [GOP]
Rasmussen comes in on this race again, showing a slight widening of the GOP lead. With Indie Andrew Halcro around 6%, Knowles will have to get to 47% to have any shot at this race.
AK-AL: Rep. Young (R) leads Benson (D) by 22 pts [GOP]
Rasmussen does not give us details on this one, at least not yet. Clearly this race is not as close as the Benson internal last week made it seem. Young might get held to his lowest margin in a dozen years, but he is still a heavy favorite.
AZ-SEN: Sen. Kyl (R) 46%, Pederson (D) 41% [Dems]
This one is starting to intrigue a lot of people. Much like Santorum can't break above 43%, Jon Kyl seems incapable of getting higher than 48-49% of the vote, and his vote total at the end is actually slipping, according to this poll by Zimmerman and Associates.
AZ-08: Giffords (D) 55%, Graf (R) 40% [Dems]
This Wick Communications poll continues to make it clear that this is a near-certain pickup for the Democrats on Tuesday. Graf has hammered on immigration, and it is not moving the needle much, if at all.
CO-GOV: Ritter (D) 55%, Beauprez (R) 33% [Dems]
Twin billing of good news, with the pastor scandal as well as the fact that the top of the ticket is becoming a blowout. This poll, from a consortium of Public Opinion Strategies (GOP) and the Kenney Group (Dems), has Ritter staked to his biggest lead yet.
CT-SEN: Sen. Lieberman (CfL) 51%, Lamont (D) 39% [Neutral]
This Research 2000 poll is the third or fourth to put the race at a dozen points. Nothing is moving the needle here. According to a FP posting earlier, the Lamont people are happy, because they thought the demographics were askew on this poll.
FL-GOV: Crist (R) 50%, Davis (D) 43% [Neutral]
Another day, another poll (this one by Mason-Dixon) showing this race close, but not a tossup. I'd really like to see Davis between 1-3 points in one of these polls.
FL-SEN: Sen. Nelson (D) 58%, Harris (R) 34% [Neutral]
Mason-Dixon confirms the general tenor of this contest--which can be summed up in a word: YAWWWWN.
FL-13: Buchanan (R) 44%, Jennings (D) 41% [GOP]
CAVEAT--This is a Republican poll, taken for the Buchanan campaign by Public Opinion Strategies. Can it be a good sign if your internals show you only up three, and well below 50%??
GA-GOV: Gov. Perdue (R) 48%, Taylor (D) 37% [Neutral]
The big movement today in the Insider Advantage tracking was that the undecided almost doubled. Remember--Perdue has to hit 50% plus one to avoid a runoff.
ID-GOV: Brady (D) 41%, Otter (R) 36% [Dems]
This Greg Jones poll was the shot heard round the electoral map when it came out last night. Can a Democrat REALLY be elected governor of Idaho?? One point of concern--bear in mind that the undecided voters are almost certainly GOP.
ID-01: Grant (D) 38%, Sali (R) 34% [Dems]
Also from the Greg Jones poll. For pithy commentary, simply re-read the post for ID-GOV. The same logic applies here.
IL-GOV: Gov. Blagojevich (D) 44%, Topinka (R) 37% [Neutral]
New numbers out from Rasmussen have this race at seven, with Rich Whitney at 14%. Here is an analytical thought--is it possible that Illinois is the one race where the Democrats might owe their victory to the Greens??!!?? Those Whitney voters are probably "change" motif voters who might go to the socially moderate Topinka.
IN-09: Rep. Sodrel (R) 46%, Hill (D) 44% [GOP]
Danger!! Danger!! This SUSA poll shows the first lead for Mike Sodrel in the entire election cycle over Democrat Baron Hill. Granted, it is within the margin of error, but...crap.
KS-02: Boyda (D) 50%, Rep. Ryun (R) 41% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, done for Boyda by Infomark. Is it REALLY possible that the Democrats will lose Indiana 09 but WIN Kansas 02??!!?? It may be an internal, but it is one with a nine-point lead. The NRCC is said to be nervous.
MD-GOV: O'Malley (D) 48%, Gov. Ehrlich (R) 47% [Neutral]
He has caught him, but Ehrlich seems to be having a little trouble passing O'Malley. This SurveyUSA poll has confirmed a trend--Ehrlich is even, but he is not ahead. If undecideds break at all towards the challenger, O'Malley takes it.
MD-SEN: Cardin (D) 47%, Steele (R) 47% [GOP]
What small comfort I have in this race is based on the fact that (a) three polls yesterday did not have what this SurveyUSA poll has; and (b) the NRSC internal tracking (which Kos broadcast today) does not have this, either. SUSA has always had this race close, because they have a much bigger proportion of the black vote going to Steele than other pollsters.
MI-GOV: Gov. Granholm (D) 51%, DeVos (R) 43% [Neutral]
This EPIC/MRA poll shows that Granholm has a lead just on the cusp of exceeding the margin of error. DeVos is still hanging in there, but Granholm is now over that 50% threshold of safety.
MI-SEN: Sen. Stabenow (D) 51%, Bouchard (R) 38% [Dems]
Like most pollsters (Strategic Vision excepted), Stabenow is leading with an incrementally higher margin than Granholm. Although, again, rumors abound that the NRSC is going to play here late, and John Mercurio picked this as a possible upset. EPIC-MRA's poll here indicates that Bouchard needs a HUGE finish.
MO-SEN: McCaskill (D) 49%, Sen. Talent (R) 48% [Neutral]
Boy, it sure seems that the election is going to come down to this state vis-a-vis Senate control. Rasmussen polls this one, and shows McCaskill clinging to a wisp of a lead.
NE-01: Rep. Fortenberry (R) 43%, Moul (D) 38% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Moul campaign by Momentum Analysis. This is a counter to a Fortenberry poll last week that had him beating Moul by more than 20. If you average the two together, Fortenberry leads 50-36. Which is pretty comfortable, all in all.
NH-02: Rep. Bass (R) 47%, Hodes (D) 44% [GOP]
CAVEAT--This is a Republican poll, taken for the Bass campaign by American Research Group. This one caught me by surprise, not for its result (although an incumbent showing his internals 47-44 is a pretty glaring sign of weakness), but for the pollster. ARG has done a bunch of independent polling, and actually seemed rather Dem-friendly in the past with their outcomes. Here, though, they are working for the Bass campaign.
NJ-SEN: Sen. Menendez (D) 43%, Kean (R) 41% [GOP]
CAVEAT--This is a Republican poll, taken for the Kean campaign by Public Opinion Strategies. When your internal poll now shows what independent polls showed two weeks ago, that is not a good indicator for your side.
NY-GOV: Spitzer (D) 69%, Faso (R) 24% [GOP]
This new poll by Siena College shows the occasional folly of the momentum tag. Hey, John Faso!! You are now losing by 45 points, instead of 51!! You have the big MO, baby!! Not Faso's fault, really. Not a bad candidate, but a bad year, against a bad guy to oppose.
NY-SEN: Sen. Clinton (D) 65%, Spencer (R) 28% [Neutral]
This Siena poll corroborates other recent polling. Wow...HRC has really consolidated her support at the end. Remember, in July and August, this was only a 20-25 point win. Now, it is closer to 35-40. Impressive.
NY-25: Maffei (D) 49%, Rep. Walsh (R) 45% [Dems]
A-HA! "The poll they would not let you see!!" This is the infamous Zogby poll which got spiked by local TV and newspapers, because he re-interviewed the same pool from the poll that got botched because it got misweighted. If that is true, here is what is incredible: The Maffei campaign did the math on the first poll, and got Walsh +4. Would this not imply an eight-point push in Maffei's direction in slightly over a week. Astounding.
OH-GOV: Strickland (D) 56%, Blackwell (R) 37% [Dems]
Mason Dixon polls all the statewide races (except the Senate race, which I find somewhat strange), and they see a potential Democratic sweep. Only one race (AG) was tied...all the others had Democratic leads. Strickland, of course, is en route to a landslide win.
OH-06: Wilson (D) 58%, Blasdel (R) 39% [GOP]
This SUSA poll is not as optimistic as the last one, which had Wilson leading 64-32. But that one never seemed terribly realistic to me, anyway. In a district that was a tossup in May, the Democrat now is en route to a 15-25 point win.
PA-GOV: Gov. Rendell (D) 60%, Swann (R) 35% [Neutral]
This poll from Muehlenberg is the fourth poll in two days giving Rendell a lead of between 21-25 points. This is becoming a real ass-kicking, and one has to wonder about the repercussions downballot.
PA-SEN: Casey (D) 51%, Sen. Santorum (R) 43% [Neutral]
Muehlenberg (who gave Team Santorum a cruel measure of false hope by showing this race at five points earlier this month) has Casey now staked to an eight-point lead. This is becoming a trend: a smaller Casey lead, but Santorum unable to break the 43% glass ceiling.
VA-SEN: Webb (D) 49%, Sen. Allen (D) 49% [Neutral]
Less than a week after showing Webb leading by five, Rasmussen pops the balloon a bit, showing the race tied. Still, if you amalgamate the last 5-10 polls this week, Webb has a small lead. The NRSC internals are also a bit pessimistic for Allen, apparently.
WI-GOV: Gov. Doyle (D) 50%, Green (R) 44% [Dems]
Not as close as Strategic Vision had it a few days back, but this one is not going to be a landslide, either. I would not call it a true toss-up, but nor would I call it for Doyle yet, either.
And that does it for the Friday edition. As always, off to football now. But I will be doing an FTP for Saturday, as I anticipate some early weekend polling (as well as some late stuff coming in tonight while I tend to the football gods).
Have a good weekend, and hopefully...a productive one.