People have written over the past few days on the rapidly-evolving scandal involving Ted Haggard of New Life Church (most recently involving his official disfellowship from New Life itself for an alleged same-sex affair with masseur Mike Jones).
As quite a number of other people have written on the details of the scandal--and there is at least one other good diary on the subject of the possible consequences for Haggard's family--I'll let them focus on that aspect.
My article here is looking at this in rather a different way--specifically, my own thoughts as to what this may mean for members of the church, and for the future of both dominionism and of members (and potential ex-members).
One of my worries is how the congregation is going to take it as a whole--as this has been developing over the past few days, I stated flat out (both here, on Dark Christianity, and to other folks) that Haggard was probably a goner as far as being in a dominionist church:
a) He resigned both the NAE membership and the church pastorship, which is in and of itself a very suspicious sign (Haggard's church is among one of the biggest promoters of "spiritual warfare" theology--in fact, New Life Church practices some of the most spiritually abusive flavours of this theology--and it's been my experience that churches into this theology almost uniformly demonise critics and claim that persons commenting on misdeeds and hypocracy are being "used by Satan to destroy the church"); in fact, I mentioned to folks that the accusations were probably true as soon as he did this, because these groups never ever essentially "commit seppuku" nor do their leaders.
The fact that Haggard pretty uncharacteristically resigned instead of claiming that Satan and "territorial spirits" or "demons of homosexuality" were trying to destroy New Life is--at least for people who know "Joel's Army Speak"--really about as incredibly damning as it comes; he was pretty much all but saying he was guilty as sin, so much of what has come afterwards has been expected.
b) As others have commented, Haggard's story changed many times, and body language indicated Haggard may have been lying (including literally nodding whilst denying he had sexual relations with Mike Jones).
c) Notably, he admitted to buying meth but not to gay sex (meth use and drug use are treated far more leniently, comparatively speaking, in dominionist churches than gay sex is; generally most dominionist churches have a permanent ban on anyone who is an "active homosexual" or who even has a history of same-sex relationships from being in the ministry, whilst drug users are merely encouraged to go into "Christian counseling" (and often make profitable careers afterwards talking about their sordid drug-user lives and how they were later "saved") and do come back later in the ministry).
In fact, the "ex-drug-user-cum-preacher" schtick is common enough as to almost be a modern staple of backstories of "name it and claim it" aka "Prosperity Gospel" preachers in the Assemblies of God traveling-pastor circuit. Haggard could have potentially recovered from being merely accused of meth use. Not so with gay relationships; gays pretty much are ranked right up with active diabolists by most dominionist churches, and some of the rhetoric is actually frighteningly similar to anti-Semitic literature from the 30's.
d) Dominionist groups not directly linked with New Life were doing much more of the "circling the wagons" typical of dominionist groups than Haggard himself was (this was a big sign, for those familiar with those groups, that something was seriously wrong and that there likely was very serious dirt on Haggard--and Haggard knew it, whereas Dobson may not have).
In light of all this, I'm not really surprised to have seen the meltdown that we've seen occuring the past few days. Even the news of Haggard being involved in a great deal of hypocracy in condemning "homosexual behaviour" whilst having sexual relations with another man isn't all that surprising; back in the 80's, a number of Assemblies-linked televangelists were busted having affairs (including Jim Bakker and Jimmy Swaggart), and sex scandals have literally occured since the time of Aimee Semple McPherson (who originally founded Foursquare after the Assemblies threatened to dismiss her due to her husband divorcing her--and who later faked her own kidnapping to elope with a fiance).
More disturbingly, for several years now there has been a bit of a problem with sexual abuse and sexual misconduct among dominionist clergy that has not generally been well publicised. (Whilst this was revealed in part with the Jim Bakker and Jimmy Swaggart scandals, tolerance of sexual abuse and misconduct is surprisingly rife in abusive dominionist churches--ranging from kids being subjected to physical abuse by pastors for reporting sexual abuse in their families to even sexual abuse by national-level leaders of dominionist denominations--abuses which are part of a repeating pattern involving both multiple parties and bullying of victims to remain silent). As several of the stories I've heard from walkaways have involved sexual harassment or even forced sexual contact by deacons, priests or cell-group leaders, I consider myself very fortunate that of all the kinds of abuse I suffered sexual abuse was not among them; people reporting sexual abuse in dominionist churches have a very difficult time reporting it for many reasons, none the least being they are often accused of trying to tear the church apart. (The strict hierarchial structure of dominionist churches--especially in big megachurches like New Life--also make it next to impossible for abuse to be recognised as abusive in some cases, much less appropriately dealt with.)
With this in mind, here are my thoughts on what is likely going to end up happening here with the Haggard Scandal and its longer-term aftermath:
a) His wife is going to have a hell of a time about this--and she may not have a really good "out", unless she pretty much breaks faith with dominionism altogether. (Divorce is frowned upon--literally the only exemptions in most neopente churches involve the husband or wife "not being Christian", and most of those churches will not marry non-dominionists to dominionists--pretty much a divorce would only be seen as non-sinful if the husband or wife actively walked away or committed serious misbehaviour (like, well, admitting to being gay); as noted, most of these churches also teach that the wife's position in the household is to "serve and follow your husband as your husband follows God").
Interestingly, Haggard being gay would give her the one out available to divorce him (theologically), and I will honestly not be all that surprised to see that happen; the question I have is if this will be the result of her walking away from things altogether (with Haggard's being removed from the ministry for "sexual misconduct"--a la Tammy Faye Bakker) or if she will be the party remaining in the dominionist fold.
b) For remarkably similar reasons, the ousting of Ted Haggard from New Life Church could cause a church split or even a small exodus from the church--specifically, this scandal could be the one thing to shock people out of dominionist mindsets enough to leave, and if one or more of those persons who gets "shocked" like this happens to be a cell-group leader...well, this is a very common way in which neopente churches and denominations form, in all truth.
I honestly do expect there will be people walking away from New Life, and from other dominionist churches, as a direct result of this scandal. Unlike in the past, we do have walkaway resources available for escapees from dominionist groups; these include online support forums (like the Association of Ex-Pentecostals), as well as exit counselor groups and even psychologists and psychiatrists who increasingly recognise that involvement in abusive religious groups can be a cause of PTSD.
Much like we will need resources to help our soldiers coming back from Iraq and Afghanistan with PTSD as a consequence of the horrors of war they've seen, we will need to point survivors leaving Joel's Army" type groups to appropriate resources--as they, too, will be "ex-soldiers" with lasting mental and emotional battle wounds. (I myself have been diagnosed with complex PTSD and have been in treatment for it in past as a direct result of being raised in an abusive church that is not unlike New Life; it's now being recognised that people escaping these groups who were raised in them have issues similar to those of child soldiers.) Even with online resources to help out (and thank the gods for those!), quite a few people are going to need help from experts to learn to function "Outside" and to deal with the very real hurt and betrayal from groups like New Life.
c) I really do not expect this to stop with Haggard or New Life at all. As it is, now that Haggard has been officially deposed from New Life, the dominionist groups that have "rallied 'round" Haggard are going to have to do some very serious backpedalling--including Focus on the Family, which flat out accused Haggard's accuser of lying at first and later claimed to be "concerned of Haggard".
In fact, the support of Haggard could well destroy the credibility of some of these groups within the dominionist community itself--I can all too easily see people questioning why Dobson "defended that homosexual Haggard". It is perhaps ironic that the rabid homophobia that is regularly stoked to two-minute hates in the dominionist community (and which has been described--rather accurately--as the "new type blood libel" by several commentators) could be the very Sword of Damocles that ends up severely wounding some of the larger dominionist groups that have been among the more homophobic.
I will also not be surprised to start seeing investigations outside of the dominionist community on other dominionist leaders--again, Dobson has been mentioned as a target to watch in this regards, especially with some of the particularly bizarre advice given in "The New Strong-Willed Child" to have adult men shower with three-year-old boys to "teach them what men look like" and attempt to prevent boys from becoming gay or transsexual. (Most non-dominionist studies indicate that one would need to go all the way back to the womb, if not to the genetic material itself, to prevent that!)
And as more revelations come out (and I really do think they will come out), I think it's going to shock more people--possibly shocking them all the way out of their dominionist churches into an outside world in which they may be very lost indeed (see b) above--really, we need to support any walkaways from these groups, point them to resources for help, lend an ear, encourage them to talk).