(And they're both independent polls!)
Just as a final reminder to all: today is the last day you can vote for me to win the Daniel Kovach $5,000 Blogging Scholarship! You can read more about me and my campaign at http://www.dailykos.com/... (Please note that I was incorrect about the prize amount). Thanks!
Now, onto the polling numbers: the two polls are for two of the most competitive races in the country for the House; State Senator Ron Klein and attorney Kirsten Gillibrand are facing off against Congressmen Clay Shaw and John Sweeney in FL-22 and NY-20, respectively. The swings are dramatic, and might well be a good harbinger for Election Day.
First, FL-22. A new poll from the Miami Herald (commissioned from Zogby
International, not
Interactive) shows Klein ahead by a 49.2 to 39.6% margin, with 6% undecided and the rest scattered. The same poll also shows Senator Bill Nelson (D) crushing Katherine Harris by a 30-point margin, according to the Herald Article.
http://www.miami.com/...
Zogby also polled the favorable ratings of each candidate. Klein has a 47-34% approval rating, and Shaw a 49-46% approval rating. So why is Shaw losing when his approval rating is near 50%?
Iraq. The Herald Poll shows that 43% of those polled feel Iraq is a "very great" influence on their vote in November, and an additional 23% say "somewhat" as a motivating factor. My hunch is that they're not cheerleading for the War like Shaw has.
The other poll is even more suprising, as it comes from Siena College's tracking of NY-20. In it's last survey in mid-October, Sweeney led Gillibrand by a 53-39% margin. Now, Gillibrand leads by a 46-43% margin, a 17-point turnaround for the Democratic candidate. Why? Scandal.
http://www.siena.edu/... (Note: Adobe Acrobat needed for analysis)
Sweeney has been bombarded in recent days by negative media coverage, including reports that his wife dialed 9-1-1 after a domestic dispute (if I read the article correctly)between the couple. In fact, one regional newspaper revoked their endorsement of Sweeney, citing recent events. The poll confirms that Sweeney is in free-fall; his approval rating fell from 49-35% favorable to 35-46% unfavorable in just one month! In addition, his reelect rating tumbled from 50-41% (in support) to 37-50% (against reelecting him).
Mind you, Gillibrand hasn't done much to improve her position; the same survey has her approval rating up to 38%, with 33% disapproving. But with a full quarter of the electorate still unaware of her, it's clear that NY-20 is a referendum on John Sweeney. And it looks like he'll lose that referendum.
Update [2006-11-5 13:59:49 by MrLiberal]: As I was typing this, I found out that a new Minnesota poll has the Democratic nominees for Governor and US Senator (Mike Hatch and Amy Klobuchar)leading as well! The Minneapolis Star-Tribune Poll (http://www.startribune.com/...) has Hatch leading Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty by a 45-40% margin, down slightly from 46-37% a few weeks ago. Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson draws 7%. Hatch's decline can be traced to a recent faux-pas on his running-mate, Judi Dutcher's part on an ethanol issue, and the issue of whether Hatch called a reporter a "Republican whore" during a telephone interview (the reporter was male, and the audio clip hasn't been released).
In the Senate race, Klobuchar continues to wallop Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy, leading him by a margin of 54-34%. Should Klobuchar win by more than 10%, it will be the biggest margin of victory for a US Senate candidate since 1988, when David Durenburger defeated Skip Humphrey by 15 points. If Klobuchar really does get a 20% landslide victory, you would have to go back to 1978 and the GOP landlside in Minnesota to find a similar blowout.*