UPDATE:kos left Tennessee off his list of governor's races, so here's my prediction:
Phil Bredesen (D) 61%
Jim Bryson (R) 36%
That 25-point victory for the Democratic incumbent is worth a few points in Ford's direction, in my opinion - because of the "coat tails" effect and because no Republican outside of Bryson's immediate family is motivated to show up at the polls to vote for him.
Now that the excitement over the "call me" ads has faded away, Republicans are once again being lulled back into a coma by the undynamic duo of Corker and Bryson. That's why this is race is much closer than kos thinks. And the GOP knows it.
Now back to your regularly scheduled diary:
The momentum is swinging back towards Harold Ford, Jr., at just the right time in Tennessee!
Three new polls have come out in the past 12 hours and they all show the race in a dead heat!
1. Gallup says Corker is only ahead by 3 (back within the poll's margin of error) with both candidates under 50%.
2. Rasmussen has yanked Tennessee right back into the "toss up" column today after a new poll put Corker up only by 4, which is back within the margin of error.
3. And the latest DSCC's internal poll still has Ford ahead by 1, although it's clearly within the margin of error as well.
Three new polls, three dead heats. This race is too close to call with just 30 hours left until the polls open.
In a state that is predominantly Republican (like Tennessee), if the two candidates are polling neck-and-neck then that tells you a lot about voter enthusiasm. The GOP doesn't have any, or this race wouldn't be too close to call.
Enthusiasm, of course, tells you a lot about turnout. So does early voting.
In the past two weeks, 860,000 Tennesseans have cast early votes--with African American turnout approaching Presidential election-year levels. Analysts looking at the statistics and a poll of early voters believe that Ford won among early voters by 8-18%.
Take a look at this analysis by the non-partisan Nashville Post business news:
[Standard independent] polling generally hits the same targeted voters over and over, and it does not take into account the odd years, like this one, when the electorate is motivated and turning out in record numbers.
...we see Memphis voting at a rate 80 percent above average. More people in Memphis voted early this time than did in 2000, when Al Gore was on the ballot for president.
...The combined total of Hamilton [including Corker's hometown of Chattanooga], Knox [including Knoxville], Sullivan, and Washington counties, all expected to vote Republican, barely surpasses the 142,235 number put up by Democratic Shelby County alone.
Personally, I think the independent polls are over-sampling GOP-leaning East Tennessee because they're relying on 2004 turnout percentages. Those people aren't motivated, while voters in Memphis and other Democratic-leaning areas are proving their enthusiasm in a tidal wave of early voting.
This rising tidal wave just might lift our boats in Tennessee, Virginia and Missouri right into the US Senate!
PS: Here's my quick and dirty momentum chart for independent polling in Tennessee, starting at the beginning of August when Corker was polling at +17. I think enthusiasm and turnout will carry us over into victory tomorrow!!