I'm cross-posting this from my
own blog.
The Grupo Cívico Ética y Transparencia, a chapter of Transparency International in Nicaragua, has released its rapid count data from Sunday's presidential election. The data shows FSLN candidate Daniel Ortega winning the election with about 38% of the vote.
According to Nicaraguan electoral law, a candidate must win at least 40% of the vote, or 35% with at least 5% more votes than the closest competitor, to avoid a run-off. The closest contender in the election is Eduardo Montealegre, of the ALN party, with about 29% of the votes, or substantially less than would be required for a run-off election.
According to the Grupo Cívico's data, Ortega has therefore won the election and will be Nicaragua's next president. The margin of error in its results is +/- 1.7%.
The rapid count results are:
Daniel Ortega (FSLN): 38.49%
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN): 29.52%
José Rizo (PLC): 24.15%
Edmundo Jarquín (MRS): 7.44%
Edén Pastora (AC): 0.40%
The official count is proceeding slowly, with just 15% of the votes counted as of this writing at noon Monday. In that count, Ortega currently has 40% of the vote, and Montealegre has 33%. None of the international observer groups monitoring the elections have noted serious problems thus far.
Update 1: The Organization of American States (OAS) observer mission estimates that about 70% of Nicaragua's eligible voters participated in this election.
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Update 2: The Supreme Electoral Council has just released new results (12:25 local time). With 40% of the vote counted, Ortega has 40% to Montealegre's 33%. It appears that the Grupo Cívico's rapid count data will hold and Ortega will be elected president of Nicaragua, without a run-off election.