What Senate or House races that are not considered competitive do you think really are, and will go Democratic?
According to the pundits, in a year like this, where it's expected that a sizable number of incumbents will be voted out, you can look for some surprises where races that were not considered competitive, or just barely competitive, result in upsets.
In the Senate, such surprises would be in Arizona and Nevada. And in Connecticut.
Here's the dynamic I am sensing. We are hearing that even "evangelical Christians" care more about the war in Iraq than anything else. The perennial "gender gap" favors anti-war candidates.
The House races are always more volatile. And many are said to be in play, typically those in moderate states where, for example, the vote might have gone for the Democrat for President and the GOP for congressman in 2004. Or at least it was close. I would love to see Peter King of New York lose his seat, for example, even though he opposed the impeachment of President Clinton.
If, as I expect, Webb wins in Virginia, I think we will see a wave of women voters rejecting dumb men like Allen and favoring smart candidates including women. (Are women really so reactionary that they will oppose Webb because of his literary remarks or even his early opposition to women being in combat? And did that story unwittingly help Webb by pointing out that he was a war veteran?)
That's among the reasons I am picking Kansas 02 and Minnesota 02 as my favorites for off-the-radar-screen upsets. Nancy Boyda and Coleen Rowley are smart, professional women who have run as moderates to conservatives in their districts. Boyda has the advantage of having moderate Republicans supporting the AG candidate and the popular Demmocratic governor.
So I see these races as very similar. If I have to pick one over the other as most likely, I will go for Boyda.