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I've been tearing through 2005 returns to try to get a sense of the state of the Virginia Senate race.  My "gotta have it now" instinct is kicking in hard core.  Here's my prediction:  Jim Webb has this thing won.  Want to see my reasoning?  More after the jump.

Okay.  Right now ballots are still outstanding in James City County, Isle of Wight, Fairfax City and Loudoun County.  Most of the outstanding precincts are the central offices, which only handle absentee ballots.  I'm not sure there are even 7,847 votes left in the commonwealth, let alone 7,847 votes for Allen and only Allen.
James City County and Isle of Wight will go for Allen--they're predictable and looking at the 2005 results, they'll give him some votes; however, the outstanding precincts (in Republican-leaning areas) only accounted for 6,515 votes TOTAL.  Those votes split fairly evenly, with a slight edge for Kilgore.  The Democratic-leaning areas accounted for 3,052 votes total and went for Kaine.  This leaves me more than cautiously optimistic.  I am all but certain Webb has won.

Originally posted to jjhare on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 06:27 AM PST.

Poll

Did Webb Win?

97%111 votes
2%3 votes

| 114 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  They've won. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Asinus Asinum Fricat, kraant, Flinch

    And I think they know it, but there wouldn't be anything wrong with calling up the campaign HQ and giving the Webb folks a pep talk and a quick "we're here for ya!"

    I'm sure most of them haven't slept and could use the encouragement.

    -7.63, -7.59 "Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, things aren't going to get better -- they're not!" --- Dr. Seuss, "The Lorax"

    by droogie6655321 on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 06:26:20 AM PST

  •  I can't believe we won the whole thing. N/T (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kraant, Flinch
  •  Loudon looks mighty blue from this Window (0+ / 0-)

    I live in Leesburg and while places like Purcelville (home of Patrick Henry College) are pretty red, my sense is the northern part of the county (which is also far and away the most populous) was DARK blue this election.  I saw a LOT of Allen signs,  but in the medians of the highways and at shopping malls.  I saw the Webb signage in houses and shop windows, on Lawns, stuck to bumpers.   And median strips don't have a vote.

    Fairfax is a given for Webb; the only question is 70% or 80%?  Frankly, once I saw Webb's strength around Quantico and Newport News, I figured Allen was done.  

    As a side note,  I think we also now know the motive for their deperate, crude and felonious voter supression campaign of the last few days.   If their tracking polls were accurate, I think they  knew that even if it only scared away a few thousand voters,  they thought it might make the difference.    Thank God it failed, in no small part because of KOS and Olberman getting the word out to the MSM

    Knowledge is power Power Corrupts Study Hard Be Evil

    by Magorn on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 06:45:30 AM PST

  •  You bet (0+ / 0-)

    This is how you stake your claim as a winner:

    When Webb claimed victory, he did it as a Marine. He came into the Vienna hotel ballroom accompanied by his brother Gary playing the bagpipes, and about a dozen of his Marine buddies emerged from behind the stage. He stood at attention, ramrod straight, as they filed in.

    Now that is an entrance.

    Starting today, the remaining votes will be counted. All other absentee and overseas ballots have been counted already.  The results will be unofficial until they are certified on Nov. 27.

    Liberal: "I still think it's a respectable word. Its root is "liber," the Latin word for "free," and isn't that what we are all about?"--Mary McGrory

    by mini mum on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 06:51:15 AM PST

  •  Provisional Ballots (0+ / 0-)

    are different than absentee ballots.

    Provisional ballot counting begins today (the day after the election).

    Procedure:

    1.  Electoral board determines if the sealed ballot contains a valid voter (based on name and address on the outside of envelope).
    1.  Those envelopes that are deemed to be valid votes are separated from the envelopes that are not valid votes.
    1.  Valid vote envelopes are opened and counted.  Invalid vote envelopes are not opened.

    Notes:  No person can challenge the electoral board's decision on whether or not an envelope contains a valid vote.  Sometimes even after opening a valid vote envelope the vote cannot be tallied (incorrect marks, etc.)  These may or not be subject to challenge in a court at a later date.

    I have no idea how many provisional ballot envelopes with uncounted votes are out there.  Is it 5000, or 20000?

    Felix does not have history working with him.  18 vote margins have held up in VA before.

    •  including a closer one last year (0+ / 0-)

      anybody remember the state ag?  yeah that went down to wire too--and it was upheld.  that one was less than 300 votes.  senator macaca can't hear the fat lady for some reason.

      If there is a lower class, I am in it. If there is a criminal element, I am of it, and while there is a soul in prison, I am not free. ~Eugene Victor Debs

      by jjhare on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 07:28:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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