I've been tearing through 2005 returns to try to get a sense of the state of the Virginia Senate race. My "gotta have it now" instinct is kicking in hard core. Here's my prediction: Jim Webb has this thing won. Want to see my reasoning? More after the jump.
Okay. Right now ballots are still outstanding in James City County, Isle of Wight, Fairfax City and Loudoun County. Most of the outstanding precincts are the central offices, which only handle absentee ballots. I'm not sure there are even 7,847 votes left in the commonwealth, let alone 7,847 votes for Allen and only Allen.
James City County and Isle of Wight will go for Allen--they're predictable and looking at the 2005 results, they'll give him some votes; however, the outstanding precincts (in Republican-leaning areas) only accounted for 6,515 votes TOTAL. Those votes split fairly evenly, with a slight edge for Kilgore. The Democratic-leaning areas accounted for 3,052 votes total and went for Kaine. This leaves me more than cautiously optimistic. I am all but certain Webb has won.