Will the Democratic wave bring some defections along with it?
After the Republican wave in the 1994 elections, 7 Democrats left the party giving an added buffer to the new Republican majority.
Continue with me after the fold...
Studies have shown, and common sense would suggest, that party switching occurs mainly from the minority party to the majority party. In fact, in the past 30 years, the only politicians to switch from the majority to the minority and win reelection in their new party were Phil Gramm (TX), Andy Ireland (FL), and Bob Stump (AZ) in the 1980s (from the Dems to the Repubs).
Additionally, party switching is most prevalent when the person switching is in office in a state in which their current party is the minority.
In our new congressional landscape, the two politicians squarely in this boat would be Senators Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe. Chafee would also have been included had he been reelected. Even though Snowe was handily reelected, I'm sure both she and Collins can't help but be nervous about being Republicans from an increasingly blue Northeast, especially considering Chafee's stunning loss. I'm sure that Reps Chris Shays and Rob Simmons (if he ends up winning) will also be having similar thoughts.
Will anyone defect? Should anyone else be included on the defection radar?