While Allen hasn't conceded, it seems unlikely he'll make up the 7,000-odd deficit to Webb in a recount. The last recount here in VA, for Attorney General in 2005, changed only 12 votes. So I decided to delve into the numbers and see how Webb pulled it off.
1. Webb held Kaine's NoVA numbers: Many here in northern Virginia wondered whether the shift toward the Democrats in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties was due to local traffic and growth issues. Whether, in other words, the Dem gains in 2005 were just temporary. Well, they may well be permanent. Loudoun and Prince William Counties again picked the Democrat, and Fairfax County again went Democrat by 60%. Meanwhile, inside the beltway, Webb won by over 70%. The GOP is slowly dying in northern VA.
2. Webb won over Navy votes in Hampton Roads: While Allen managed to outpoll Webb in Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and James City County, Allen's margins all shrank compared to his 2000 run. In Hampton, Norfolk, and Newport News, Webb won the highest percentage any Democrat has won since Robb's 1988 landslide. Mocking Annapolis reading material didn't impress independents in Hampton Roads.
3. Webb held his own in SW Virginia: While Allen polled ahead of Webb here, Webb improved on Robb's 2000 figures from the Va panhandle, winning Roanoke and Blacksburg's Montgomery County. Allen's overall percentages in the 9th Congressional District, which covers this area, slipped a few points from 2000. Bottom line: many of the independents, who backed Allen in 2000, defected to Webb this time.
The NoVA wins and increasing numbers in Hampton Roads have to worry the state GOP. Their control has hinged on winning large minorities in NoVA, and winning VA Beach by at least 15 points. With these bases weakening, the Dems have a great opening here, one that has solidified even more in the past 2 years.