The Senate seems to set up pretty well for Democrats in 2008. Of the 33 seats up, 21 are currently held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats. By my seat of the pants analysis, I see just three of the Democratic seats as at risk: Lautenberg in NJ, Johnson in SD, and Landrieu in LA. On the other hand, besides having to defend so many more seats I see up to six Republican held seats possibly at risk: Domenici in NM, Warner in VA, Allard in CO, Coleman in MN, Sununu in NH, and Smith in OR.
Read on for details....
Here is my breakdown:
Safe Democrats:
Biden (DE)
Harkin (IA)
Kerry (MA)
Levin (MI)
Rockfeller (WV)
Pryor (AR)
Durbin (IL)
Baucus (MT)
Reed (RI)
Inouye (HI)
Mikulski (MD)
Safe Republicans:
Stevens (AK)
Roberts (KS)
Cochrane (MS)
Hagel (NE)
Dole (NC)
Inhofe (OK)
Alexander (TN)
Chambliss (GA)
Graham (SC)
Sessions (AL)
Craig (ID)
McConnell (KY)
Collins (ME)
Cornyn (TX)
Enzi (WY)
I'd call these safe based on either a combination of incumbent strength and underlying state voting patterns.
At Risk Democrats:
Lauteneberg (NJ)
Johnson ((SD)
Landrieu (LA)
At Risk Republicans:
Domenici (NM)
Warner (VA)
Allard (CO)
Coleman (MN)
Sununu (NH)
Smith (OR)
Obviously, retirements creating open seats and all sorts of unexpected developments can dramatically shift the landscape but I think we can say confidently that at this point, we'd much rather strategists for the good guys.