There is much bustle in Washington. Dubya is considered to have ordered a quick transfer of power to the Iraqis. Yet I see dark clouds gathering--something else entirely may be going on.
Dubya would destroy Iraq before withdrawing or ceding one mil of responsibility to France and the UN. Bush is an executioner, not a negotiator. I have the feeling that Bremer was told to order the IGC to go after all the terrorists and anyone perceived to be a supporter, as Bush would have the PA assassinate or imprison all supporters of Hamas, Hizbollah and even Fatah. You and I know that this is an impossibility. It would be like declaring war on yourself.
In the dragnet the ICG is expected to carry out, under draconian rule and martial law, they'd have to arrest family, tribe and co-religionists, destroying city quarters, towns and villages in the process. They'd have to plant anti-personnel mines and string barbed wire. They'd have to cordon off, depopulate and sweep. They are unwilling to do this and an elected government would be even less inclined. But a sword hangs over their heads.
Already CENTCOM has returned to Qatar from Tampa. This points to the preparation of a new offensive. We understand that Bush will not hesitate to carry out the plans for destruction of that country which he and Blair postponed last spring when Saddam's army dissolved. I think this is why Bush plans a trip to the UK in a few days. To discuss operation Operation Iron Slayer (my words).
People with grand schemes to change the course of history are not dissuaded by the deaths of a few hundred soldiers. They are ruthless in their vision, they expect their commanders to execute it without question and they'll tamp down protest at home.
Between cutting and possibly running, there will be a long interim phase in which we will attempt to accomplish a win with our perfected technology of intimidation and slaughter. In Bush's mind, he has given the Iraqis enough time to throw down their weapons, acknowledge his power over them, give thanks for his mercy and celebrate that neo-con America has come to their country. Now comes the ultimatum before total victory.
If my bet is wrong, I am going to celebrate big time.