(Cross-posted at Raising Kaine)I have had to spend some serious time catching up with life things over the past five days. I posted a diary on Wednesday (I think) about my day of door-knocking for Webb. I posted it, finally, when the conventional wisdom was that Webb's advantage was large enough not to be overcome. It was only then that I relaxed.
Well, I didn't relax for long. Because believe me - I remain SHOCKED at how close the Allen-Webb election was. You'd have to have been on the ground, doing literature drops and phone banks and canvassing activities to fully understand. But my day walking around doing GOTV door-knocking on Tuesday gave me EVERY reason to believe that the vote wouldn't be as close as it was between Webb and Allen. I thought Webb would have it decisively on Tuesday night.
We're still boogying - so do it with me over the bump.
I can't underscore enough how many people here as well as from the non-blogger population put their feet (walking) and their knuckles (knocking) and their fingers (dialing) to use to deliver this victory for Webb. We worked like people possessed, chased utterly by the dire remembrance of how we felt the day after the 2004 Presidential election.
We had to win. Period. If that meant no sleep and abandoned spouses and abandoned domestic responsibilities and a less-than-100%-focus at work, so be it.
And we won. We did. The uncertified margin gave it to Webb by 9,187 votes for a margin of 0.38%. Let me underscore - we took this by less than half a percent. My stomach tightens just thinking about it. Because let's be honest here - in addition to the candidate himself (Webb) and the power of his volunteer army, it can't be discounted that Webb's push over the top also had a lot to do with the general Republican backlash witnessed across the country this midterm. We can't count on that in 2008 - two years is a lifetime in political and political whimsy, and there is much to be learned from how the numbers played out for Webb. A simple analysis is and was in order, and I took my holiday yesterday to start doing it. Bear with me while I explain what I did.
I visited Virginia's Board of Elections page. I went county by county and city by city and entered the following into a spreadsheet:
- County/City
- Allen Votes
- Webb Votes
- Total Votes
- % Voter Turnout
From there I could do some simple calculation of Webb's percentage by county/city, Allen's percentage by county/city, the percentage of difference (margin) between Allen and Webb by county/city, and an estimate of the total voter population in a specific county/city.
From there I made an assumption. I set a threshold of 55% voter turnout. I sorted the spreadsheet by turnout and isolated those that were BELOW 55%. I eliminated the counties/cities that went for Allen by whatever margin and considered ONLY counties/cities where Webb won AND the voter turnout was below 55%.
Still with me? This short-list allowed me to do some assumptive calculation. My goal was to arrive at an estimate of how many additional votes Webb would have gotten if voter turnout would have been at 55% in those counties/cities where he won. The formula was simple:
Total Voter Population Estimate x Percentage Difference Between Actual Turnout and 55% Turnout x Webb's Percentage
Here's how it looks:
Please note the bottom line: 48,859 precious votes irrespective of demographics, etc. In other words, a simple goal of increasing voter turnout in the counties and cities listed to 55% would have substantively increased Webb's margin.
I was flabbergasted - mainly because many of the populous regions are totally within our reach in terms of GOTV efforts for 2008. In other words, counties like Prince William and Fairfax and Loudoun already have a great structure in place and potentially require only some tweaking and planning to make this kind of goal a completely doable reality.
I totally subscribe to Dean's 50-State strategy. Within that, however, is a microcosm. In my case, there's a Virginia strategy that feeds that 50-State strategy. And within that is a county and city strategy that could really deliver this state as blue (GASP!) in 2008. I'm not suggesting that Virginia Democrats ignore counties and cities where Allen won - I am merely suggesting that there are obvious areas where we can start focusing today to put us in the best possible position for the next election.
My next step is to take the list from the spreadsheet and get a contact list of Democratic party officials and state Senators and Representatives and start working emails and phones. It may be a rudimentary analysis on my part, but I really think it's a starting point that has to begin three days ago. We have no time to lose.
I'm in - I've got the bug. I feel empowered. I know I can help, and I fully plan on making a difference.
Update [2006-11-11 13:38:19 by RenaRF]: Oh - and I forgot to mention - this kind of analysis can easily be done by dedicated footsoldiers like those here at Daily Kos for whatever state is of interest. Hopefully it's a framework for planning for 2008.
Update [2006-11-11 14:23:8 by RenaRF]: Damn - I'm losing my mind. I also meant to ask - of those counties cities listed in Virginia, are there any Kossacks with knowledge of those areas with some insight into the local Democratic party infrastructure as well as an assessment of the GOTV activities in those areas?
I would also like to see if anyone else in other states are picking up the same type of analysis... Thanks!
Update [2006-11-11 14:56:46 by RenaRF]: MAJOR - Glinda pointed out my nubers for Hopewell City (now OFF the list) were wrong. I went back and checked, and I had transposed Webb's numbers from 2,349 and listed as 3,249. DUH. Major snaps to Glinda for finding that. The spreadsheet has been adjusted and gross vote gain total changed to reflect removal of Hopewell City.