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There are multiple reasons to think we may still take the NM-01 House seat away from Heather Wilson. Her current lead is under 1,500 votes, prior to the count of provisional and in-lieu-of-absentee ballots.

Gap shrinkage in these ballots is the main one and funny business on election day is interesting in its own right. See details below the fold.

GAP SHRINKAGE I looked into the sources of ballots that went largely uncounted after the 2004 cycle.  The in-lieu-of and provisional ballots come overwhelmingly from Democratic precincts. I can go into detail on my (admittedly limited) research and the reasons if they're not obvious.  There is every reason to think these may break higher than 10:1 pro-Madrid (or anti-Wilson/Bush, depending on what you think a Dem vote meant).  The key is to validate these voters and their ballots so they actually get counted. Call the  Madrid campaign <> or NM Democratic Party to see what kinds of help are needed.

   2. FUNNY BUSINESS There are a number of stories floating around, including:

    * organized calls misdirecting voters to non-existent or incorrect polling places from Repub sources; and
    * Voters with more-than-adequate ID being forced to vote provisionally or not given a ballot at all. See here <> for in-depth discussion of the chaos during absentee ballot counting.

Originally posted to AaroninNM on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:15 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I Tried To Call And See If They Want Help.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jeff in CA, Allogenes

    No answer, and voice mailboxes full :^(

    This NM election has all the hallmarks of a corrupt NM election.  Lots of voters forced to vote provisionally, voters directed to incorrect polling places, etc.

    How many of these absentee/provisional ballots are left?  I remember another US Congressional race like this one where it took over a week to count all of the provisionals, and the Dem ended up winning.

    Madrid needs to hunker down and fight it out.  I will try sending her a fax later, maybe I can get through that way...

    Ned Lamont for US House of Representatives (CT-04) in 2008

    by bincbom on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:29:15 AM PST

  •  Where are these precincts? (0+ / 0-)

    Where are these overwhelmingly Democratic precincts?  I hear there are about 9000 in-lieu-of and provisional ballots now still to be counted.  How many such ballots were there in 2004?

    The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. -FDR

    by Jeff in CA on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:52:12 AM PST

  •  Serious counting irregularities in Bernalillo Co. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jeff in CA, DanD
    NM01 Congressional Race

    There is a serious problem in New Mexico with the hand count of ballots. Please kick this so it will get noticed. The Republican candidate, Heather Wilson has already claimed victory and is being supported by the news media. But it is clear that not only have the ballots -not- been counted, there is a serious problem with the organization and integrity of the process.

    Friday, November 10, 2006
    I worked on Monday opening absentee ballots at the Bernalillo County election warehouse.  I worked on Wednesday counting absentee ballots.  After about two hours of work our table of four noticed that we had a tally sheet that had two votes for each ballot position and only one ballot had been counted. 
    On Wednesday morning the tally packs consisted of groups of ballots that had already been tallied, tally sheets and ballots that had not been counted yet.  Our procedure was to spread out a tally packet into a stack of already counted ballots, the tally sheets and the ballots to be counted.  The pre-counted ballots had a sticky-note with the number of ballots counted, the date they were counted and signatures of the ballot reader and the tally marker.  We checked to see that the number of ballots equaled what the sticky-note indicated.  We then added a tally of the ballots that had not yet been counted.
    We were on our fourth packet and we noticed that there was only one ballot yet there were two vote tallies on the tally sheet.  We then rechecked the packets that we had already processed and found that every one of them had votes marked and not enough ballots to support them.

    (More at the Link)

    "Make sure when you are arguing with an idiot, that he is not doing the same"

    by Solara on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:25:53 AM PST

    •  Here is a viable link (0+ / 0-)

      "Make sure when you are arguing with an idiot, that he is not doing the same"

      by Solara on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:32:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  thanks (0+ / 0-)

        I have heard in the past from a friend in Northern nm that problems have existed in the past with various vote-stealing activities.

        it sounds from the report that there is either gross incompetence or malfeasance by the person running the count. it's tragic. are there any dem lawyers present observing? there should be. what about voter action?

        has this story been reported well at daily kos already?

        •  I am assuming there are lawyers involved (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jeff in CA, biscobosco
          and I doubt if many voters even know about it. The media can only be counted on to support Heather Wilson. Which they did when she declared herself the victor last week.

           I haven't seen this on kos.  I found this story on a blog, and since  I am relatively new here I wasn't sure if I could post it as anything other than a comment because it is not original.

          "Make sure when you are arguing with an idiot, that he is not doing the same"

          by Solara on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:51:22 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Original or not, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            You may post a diary if no one has already posted a diary on the same topic today (or if so, you have more analysis or new material to add).  I encourage you to do so with this story!  It doesn't matter if you are new.

            The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. -FDR

            by Jeff in CA on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:05:06 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  By the way, (0+ / 0-)

              this qualifies as more analysis and new material to add.

              The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. -FDR

              by Jeff in CA on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:06:11 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for the optimism! (0+ / 0-)

    Not that I'm unhappy with what we've won so far - as they say at Passover, "Dayenu" - but I'd love to see the Nipple Nazi get booted.
    On the other hand I wouldn't want us to get rid of all the wingnuts, we need someone to run against next time... More important, we need them to torpedo any attempts the GOP makes to come across as more "moderate."

    "I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat." -- Will Rogers

    by Allogenes on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:55:52 AM PST

  •  Richardson's glorious resume (0+ / 0-)

    The Bush win over Kerry in NM in 2004 was microsheer.
    Richardson blocked efforts to challenge the result and
    to recount the ballots.

    Guess he was afraid of being called Governor Sore

    Now a messed-up election in a race that has been
    hard-fought for year after year. The State of New Mexico
    can't run a clean and reliable election? And the
    Governor remains silent about this ugly mess?

    No way Richardson gets my support in his coming bid
    for the Presidential nomination.

    Richardson's a loser on the key issue of election
    integrity. He also shows a serious lack of interest
    in other Democrats winning in his state, and a lack
    of the kind of backbone and willingness to fight
    for what's important that we look for in a President.

    It's a great resume but his references don't check out.

  •  please keep these diaries going (0+ / 0-)

    Can't believe this isnt getting more play.

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