Even without a new Liberal leader, the Liberal party has caught up to the Conservatives in 2 recent polls.
A Decima poll actually puts the Libs ahead of the Cons but the difference is within the range of statistical error.
Respondents to a new national poll placed the federal Liberals ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in almost a year.
However, the narrow Liberal lead in the Decima poll was within the three-percentage-point margin of error, which means it's too close to say who's really ahead.
The Grits had the support of 33 per cent of respondents nationally, while the Tories had 31 per cent, the NDP had 15 per cent and the Green party had 10.
An
SES Research National Surveyputs the Cons at 34% and the Libs at 32%, which is within the 3 percentage point error range of the test. This poll shows that the Cons are strongest in the West with support from 48% of voters, but weakest in Quebec at 12%. The Cons have mild losses in Atlantic Canada, going from 39% popularity in August to 36% now, and in Ontario, also at 36%.
Liberals are strongest in Ontario at 44%, followed by Atlantic Canada at 37%, and have 25% of the vote in both Quebec and the West.
In Quebec, the 14-point drop in popularity for the Conservatives has resulted in modest rises for all 4 of the remaining parties. The BQ has been the biggest winner, going from 42 to 50% of voter support but it is good to see that the Libs are making gains in the province that gave them such a cold shoulder in the last election.
These results suggest that the honeymoon period for the Cons is over and reality is setting in. There have been enough gaffes by the Harper and his MPs to make voters question whether the Cons can do a better job of running the country, and ideologically, the Cons are far to the right of most of the Canadian electorate.
We heard earlier about the impact each of the 4 front-runners in the Liberal leadership race could have on voter preferences but we do not have a geographic breakdown of support. The winning candidate must be able to win in Ontario and Quebec to win the next federal election.
However it is good to see that voters everywhere seem to be moving on from the sponsorship scandals and considering some other issues in determining who they want in power.
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This diary is cross-posted at The Next Agenda.