As we all know, there are still two congressional districts in which the elections haven't been held yet. One is Louisiana's 2nd District in New Orleans, where the runoff is between two Democrats, beleaguered incumbent Bill Jefferson (of $90K in the freezer fame) and State Rep. Karen Carter, endorsed by the Louisiana Democratic Party. The election is on December 9.
And of course, there is Texas' 23rd District spanning West Texas from the outskirts of El Paso deep into urban San Antonio. This race is between Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla and Democratic challenger Ciro Rodriguez, a former Representative from the neighboring 28th District. This election is on December 12.
Coming out of November 7, the conventional wisdom was that Jefferson is toast and Bonilla is a shoo-in. But both races have gotten a lot more interesting since. Read on.......
First, the Jefferson/Carter showdown. This race is very complicated, and depending on which spin-meister you believe, either Jefferson is history or he is on top again a la Ray Nagin. Both candidates have their advantages. Going for Jefferson is that he is an established incumbent, and New Orleans is traditionally hesitant to drop even the most corrupt incumbents. Also, even though both candidates are black, Jefferson's team has subtly tried to establish Carter as "the white candidate" the way Mitch Landrieu was seen in last spring's mayoral race. Jefferson's support is strongest in densely-populated black precincts, and he has been endorsed by some notable black figures including Mayor Nagin and State Sen. Derrick Shepherd, a candidate in November's jungle primary.
After two weeks of not-so-good news for Carter, she lost her supposed favored status. But she has a lot going for her too. Jefferson got just 30% on November 7, usually a death knell for even the most savvy incumbent, and that means a majority of the district is not settled on him. Today the news is that she significantly outraised him in November, with over $300,000 to his $70-odd,000.
This race is coming down to the wire, and I hope we all pitch in just a little $ for Karen Carter.
Second, the Bonilla/Rodriguez race in Texas. I always pegged Bonilla the winner, since he got almost 49% on November 7, is a long-term incumbent with gobs and gobs of cash, and Rodriguez is not the most organized or best-funded candidate out there. I said all along that if Rodriguez can make it a runoff and get 45% in the runoff, it can be considered a victory, given low Latino participation in Rodriguez's South San Antonio base and a reportedly weak field operation districtwide.
But today, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) endorsed Rodriguez, ending an almost three-year long falling-out between the two former friends. You all know the story between them; I don't need to hash it out again. But the fact is, Cuellar has a very organized operation (if he didn't, he wouldn't have almost unseated Bonilla in 2002, and then unseated Rodriguez in 2004), and Rodriguez is now consulting with Cuellar's people about how to improve his name recognition and performance in the rural counties west of San Antonio where he is not known.
Whatever you think about Cuellar, this is a big boost for an otherwise underfunded, under-organized campaign in a very short runoff race designed to help Bonilla by placing Election Day on a Latino Catholic holiday and thus driving down Hispanic turnout. It also proves that Cuellar is still a Democrat (which I knew from seeing his contributions to major campaigns including the Tammy Duckworth campaign), and that we should not be so quick to label him disloyal.
So, just some updates. Carry on as you may.