Ohio's 15th District has been a long and very hard fought race.
Unofficial results announced by Franklin County, the last to finish counting absentee and provisional ballots in central Ohio's 15th District on Monday, show Deborah Pryce's lead over challenger Mary Jo Kilroy has dropped by 2,482 votes to only 1,055.
That margin is so slim that a recount will be required by Ohio Law.
As anticipated, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell ordered counties on Tuesday to recount votes in the closely divided 15th congressional district.
Blackwell told the three counties in the district -- Franklin, Union and Madison -- they must "promptly fix the time, method and place" for their recounts, which must take place no later than December 8.
This is (still Ohio Secretary of State) Ken Blackwell's second action directly impacting this race. In June of this year, Blackwell ruled that Charles Morrison could not enter the race as an independent candidate.
Blackwell to break tie vote over 15th District candidacy.
Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell will decide whether a conservative supporter can continue an independent run for Congress that could hurt his own party’s nominee.
The Franklin County Board of Elections voted along party lines yesterday on a Republican challenge to the candidacy of Charles R. Morrison II, a Madison County business owner who wants to join the 15 th District race between GOP incumbent Deborah Pryce and Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy.
Morrison, whose attorney calls that contest a choice between "the lesser of two liberals," won 7,200 votes against Pryce, of Upper Arlington, as a GOP primary challenger in 2004.
Obviously 7,200 votes taken from Pryce in this race would have completely changed the outcome which is now only 1055 votes apart.
Considering the dynamics of this race and the 2006 elections in general Morrison would have likely done much better this time around as he is a true conservative who would have assuredly pulled lots of votes from Pryce particularly in Madison and Union counties the 2 counties in which she prevailed.
So Blackwell first protected Pryce back in June. (More info)
Now it's Ohio's Election Law's and Recount Procedures that will shield Pryce from a true and accurate count. When Blackwell signed the Recount Order as required by Ohio Election Law, he completely understood the politics of what will occur.
OH-15: Legal Issues in Recount
Several significant legal questions emerge from this morning’s Columbus Dispatch story about the recount that has been triggered by yesterday’s final results in the election for Ohio’s 15th congressional district.
First, the paper reports that the Secretary of State will call for a manual recount of 3% of the Voter Verified Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs), pursuant to that office’s rules for automatic recounts of this kind. Yet, as explained previously by Steve Huefner (building on earlier analysis by our colleague Dan Tokaji), there is a question whether a statute adopted by Ohio’s legislature actually requires a count of all 100% of these VVPATs in this situation, and if so, what legal procedure Kilroy could pursue to enforce compliance with this statute.
Second, the Dispatch article also says that Kilroy is considering a possible challenge to the disqualification of provisional ballots. Apparently, about 2,600 provisional ballots were rejected in Franklin County, out of approximately 21,000 cast, although a portion of these ballots would be applicable to another congressional district. An AP report says that the two main reasons why provisional ballots were rejected were either that the individual was not registered or that the ballot was cast in the wrong precinct. Although federal law does not require Ohio to count wrong-precinct provisional ballots, the Dispatch reports that Kilroy may claim that poll workers failed to comply with an obligation to direct these voters to their correct precinct.
From The Franklin County Poll Workers Training Presentation:
Now Kilroy picked up an estimated 70% of the provisional ballots that were counted in Franklin County and to have lets say 2000 more provisionals counted assuming the same margin . . . she picks up another 800 votes! Not yet a winner, but much closer should the recounts change a few hundred votes . . . and if the margin goes even higher . . . She Wins Outright!
However, to get these remaining provisional ballots counted apparently Kilroy would have to go to Court. Federal Court, and there's no reason to assume that her case would be heard by Judge Marbley who issued A Consent Order for November 7, 2006 Election Day and Absentee Ballot Identification Requirements [PDF] in an attempt to reduce the confusion of ID requirements brought about by Ohio's HB 3 law passed last year.
Here's where the real issue of John Kerry's concession in 2004 comes out. None of the numerous outstanding issues surrounding a recount of votes in Ohio has been litigated already. Had Kerry not conceded and made all the legal challenges in 2004 the pathway for Kilroy now would not be so fraught with political danger.
Going to Court is a major step . . . would Kilroy kill her chances in 2008 by suing now over recount issues? Would public opinion turn against her as the Republicans "swift-boated" her over "running the Democrat Florida Playbook and Trying to Steal the Election" which they surely would supported by the Columbus Dispatch and local news media.
Should Kilroy allow the recount to run it's course and stay silent and then graciously concede should the vote totals (as expected under the unchallenged recount procedures) not produce a change in the overall winner?
In other words, should she fight now or prepare for another run?
One caveat to consider, she could always sue and if still unresolved by January 10 let the Clerk of the (newly Democratic) House decide who to seat.