Yes, many in the media have all but pronounced Dean dead, but there are many reasons to doubt its word given the history of this primary campaign.
This primary has so far defied all conventional wisdom.
First, the media was buzzing about John Edwards, with his Southern charm and his lawyer fundraising buddies.
Then John Kerry became the front runner, given his experience, his military record, the high profile insiders he had been accumulating, and a very strong organization that he had.
At this time, Dean was an outsider who had no hope at all. A "marginal candidate" if you will, just like Kucinich, Sharpton, and Carol Moseley-Braun. One of those candidates the media ignores and whose campaign is painted as futile and perhaps eccentric.
Then Dean surprised them everyone, himself included, when he far surpassed his own fundraising goals for the 2nd quarter, and outraised all of the candidates. The media was buzzing about how this happened, and what it could possibly mean. Many speculated that it was a phase, that he was the "flavor of the day," and that he would soon fizzle out.
Then in the 3rd quarter after more of these thoughts they still thought he was topping out.
Somewhere in there Al Gore and Bill Bradley endorsed him, and he somehow became the presumptive nominee. The pundits were claiming the race was over and that it would be Bush vs. Dean.
Kerry, in the meantime, had lost his longstanding and significant lead in New Hampshire to Dean. Without winning this New England state, he would have no method of achieving the nomination. Also, there were internal conflicts within the Kerry campaign, and he fired his manager in an attempt to turn things around. He even mortgaged his house to raise some extra cash and prove that he still believed he could win.
Then, after Dean takes constant attacks from the other candidates, and after the media examined his every move under a microscope for a sufficient period of time, he stumbled in Iowa. From out of nowhere, Kerry and Edwards spring up. And now the media is acting as if it knew it all along.
So that's where we are. Kerry has indeed won Iowa, and Dean has some strong competition.
But I strongly emphasize that this campaign is not over and that Dean has a good chance at turning things around. He has raised over $40 million, far more than everyone else, and he has significant grassroots support, a strong organization, high profile endorsements, and good support in the states that are voting one week after New Hampshire.
It is certainly a strong possibility that Dean will lose. But there's also a strong possibility that he can win.
It's not over till the donkey sings.