Geroge Bush will go down as the First president of the United States
to lose 2 wars.
Most american's are convinced Iraq is Lost, very few realized
that his first war Afghanistan, was lost even before it began.
In order to assess this, lets start with a few factual bits of evidence.
- Afghanistan according to href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan">Wikipedia has
Area
251,772 sq mi
Population
- 2005 estimate 29,863,000 (38th)
- 1979 census 13,051,358
- Density 46/km² (150th)
119/sq mi
and a diverse population of
Based on official census numbers from the 1960s to the 1980s, as well as information found in main - mostly scholarly - sources[39], the Encyclopædia Iranica gives the following list[39]:
* 36.4% Pashtun
* 33.6% Tajik, Farsiwan, and Qezelbash
* 8.0% Hazara
* 8.0% Uzbek
* 3.2% Aimak
* 1.6% Baloch
* 9.2% other
Now bear in mind, no census has been conducted since 1979,
so an error bar of 5-9% is best kept in mind.
but, what we should see here is Afghanistan is a Large country,
with a Big Population, and heavily fractionated between numerous tribes.
now, kossacks, like many americans have followed Iraq with more detail.
Let's look at Iraq
Area
169,234 sq mi
Population
- 2005 estimate 28,807,000 (40th)
- Density 66/km² (125th)
171/sq mi
and this population
Ethnic Composition:
* Ethnic groups: Arab, 75–80%; Kurdish, 15-20%; Turkoman, Assyrian or other 5%.
* Religions: Muslim, 97%; Christian or other, 3%.
Proportions: There are no official figures available, mainly due to the highly politically charged nature of the subject. Source: Britannica: Shi'a 60%, Sunni 40% Source: CIA World Fact Book: Shi'a 60%-65%, Sunni 32%-37%
Once again we see a highly diverse population, linked by tribal
affiliations, much deeper and longer then the state's existence.
Now let's look at the Numbers here.
Afghanistan is a larger country then Iraq with a Larger Population
Rumsfeld went into Afghanistan with a handful of Special Ops soldiers,
and even now NATO has less then 40,000 soldiers in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan presents a larger occupation problem then Iraq,
and yet far fewer forces are deployed there.
Then the Drug traffic kicked in, and to quote SACEUR Gen James Jones
. Drug cartels with their own armies engage in regular combat with NATO forces deployed in Afghanistan, he said. "It would be wrong to say that this is just the Taliban. I think I need to set that record straight," he added.
"They have their own capability to inflict damage, to make sure that the roads and the passages stay open and they get to where they want to go, whether it's through Pakistan, Iran, up through Russia and all the known trade routes. So this is a very violent cartel," Jones said. "They are buying their protection by funding other organizations, from criminal gangs to tribes, to inciting any kind of resistance to keep the government off of their back."
So not only is NATO and the american force in a larger country then Iraq,
they face violent well funded opposition, in a country that has
swallowed up the greatest armies of Britain Gunga Din Russia mongolia
The afghan people are very primitive and used to a culture that is more 15th century then 20th century. To invade and re-order the rights of women schoolgirls under fire may be popular with western liberals, but is highly unpopular with at least 50% of the afghan population. Social change beyond an acceptable rate causes massive social unrest and disorder.
The Taliban have been able to harness this to roar back with enough of a vengeance that Pakistan urges we accept taliban victory in afghanistan a matter
well diaried by zapp branigan or http://www.dailykos.com/... href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/11/29/85117/298">afghanistan
NATO and USAF are now bombing in Afghanistan at a rate that exceeded the Iraq invasion to Air strikes increase in afghanistan run at 750/month. The graphic is startling.
This is of course utterly contrary to counter-insurgency doctrine.
Of course suggesting that Invading afghanistan was a bad idea was
as unpopular with liberals as neo-cons and for a few months it
appeared Rumsfeld's doctrine was working. Of course, then they
tied up with Drug lords, began upsetting the social order, annoying locals
and using heavy weapons all in a country much bigger and more
populated then Iraq. A civilian occupation was started by people
with no respect for government. A country that had repelled invasion from
every great empire, and it was Doomed.
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PPS these neo-cons wanted to invade Iran and Syria also.
Iran is the size of Alaska, with 40 Million people.
Syria is big,s ay the size of Pennsylvania, with a large
population, and they were rattling the cages of Egypt and
Saudi Arabia. What were they Smoking?