One month ago the Democrats pulled off a historic accomplishment on Election Day: They did not concede a single House, Senate, or gubernatorial seat to the Republicans. The Democrats won a net of 29 seats in the House to take the chamber with the same majority the Republicans held after the 2004 elections.
However, we did not do as well as we should have. There were a ton of races where the Democratic challenger came within ten points of victory, but fell excruciatingly short of Capitol Hill. We need to identify these races, select challengers who can make up this ten percent, and finish the deal to give us that commanding majority necessary to make landmark progressive reforms a reality.
Below the flap I've identified all the 2006 races where the Republican incumbent won by <10%...</p>
AZ-1: Scandal-ridden Rick Renzi defeated ACLU lawyer Ellen Simon 51-44.
CA-4: Scandal-ridden John Doolittle defeated Vietnam veteran and retired Air Force lieutenant colonel Charlie Brown 49-46.
CO-4: Ms. "Gay Marriage is the most important issue in America" Marilyn Musgrave defeated Colorado State Senator Angie Paccione 46-43, with Eric Eidsness taking 11% of the vote.
CT-4: Chris "Abu Ghraib is a sex ring" Shays defeated Westport mayor Diane Farrell 51-48. It would be nice to see Lamont take a shot at Shays in 2008; he's hard to beat, but not as difficult as Joe Lieberman in that state. It's become obvious that Farrell isn't going to be the one to take out the last New England House Republican.
FL-8: Ric Keller, who broke his term-limits pledge, defeated challenger Charlie Stuart 53-46.
FL-13: If Vern Buchanan is seated, we should go after this one as hard as possible (obviously). This is the one election where we can definitely say the machines FUBAR'ed.
ID-1: Bill Sali (won 50-45) will still be an idiot, but with the power of incumbency, he'll probably be harder to take out. Larry Grant was a strong candidate last time and should take another shot at Sali. Perhaps an embarrassing term in Congress will make enough people who couldn't muster the courage to vote for a Democrat finally make the jump.
IL-6: Duckworth couldn't win this open seat in a year highly favorable to the Dems (she lost 51-49). I'd give Christine Cegelis another shot at it against Pete Roskam, who will prove to be far to the right of even Henry Hyde (yes I know it's hard to believe). Obama at the top of the ticket would really help Cegelis or any Illinois Dem challenger bury the Repubs even more in the Land of Lincoln.
IL-10: Dan Seals made a spirited run at "moderate" Republican Mark Kirk, losing 53-47. He appears to be a strong candidate who could take Kirk out with better funding in two years.
IL-11: Jerry Weller, infamous for marrying the daughter of a Guatemalan dictator and later supporting the dictator, defeated John Pavich, a former CIA counterterrorism agent, 55-45.
IN-3: Mark Souder didn't anticipate a close race in what was supposed to be a safe Republican seat, but Tom Hayhurst, a Vietnam War vet, ran an outstanding campaign. Souder won 54-46 and Hayhurst ought to have another go at him.
KY-2: Incumbent Ron Lewis defeated Vietnam vet and retired Army colonel Mike Weaver 55-45. Maybe Weaver should run a little more to the left like John Yarmuth, who won next door (i.e. say you're voting for Pelosi for Speaker!).
KY-4: Geoff Davis defeated the old Democratic incumbent Ken Lucas 51-44. This was another case where the Dem candidate ran a little too far to the right to win.
MI-7: Tim Walberg fits the exact definition of a Christofascist. He is WAY too far to the right for a district that only leans Republican. Even though he outspent Sharon Renier handily, he won by only five (51-46). There has to be some other Democrat out there who can whip Walberg in '08.
MI-9: Joe Knollenberg faced one of his closest races ever, defeating Nancy Skinner 52-46. Either Skinner runs again with more institutional support or we need a stronger candidate in this swing district which is trending our way.
MN-6: Although Patty Wetterling has a good story, she failed to make her case against uber-wingnut Michelle Bachmann, losing 50-42. We'll need a stronger candidate (a Bill Luther type) for the DFL to take this seat. I'd put this near the top because Bachmann will be an embarrassment in the House.
NE-2: This is actually the most Democratic district in Nebraska (due to Omaha). Jim Esch took an established incumbent, Lee Terry, within ten points of defeat (55-45). It's a second tier race in 2008, but one that should not be ignored in the least.
NE-3: Although this was one of the most Republican districts in the country, Scott Kleeb really made his mark. He ought to take a shot in a district that would give him a better chance (like NE-1 or 2).
NV-2: Jill Derby ran a real strong campaign in outstate Nevada but lost by six (51-45). This, along with NV-3, ought to be fought over again in '08.
NV-3: Tessa Hafen lost by less than 4,000 votes (48-47) to Jon Porter. Hafen looks to have a bright future and ought to take another shot at it.
NJ-7: Mike Ferguson, one of the most hard-right representatives in the Mid-Atlantic region, almost lost his seat to upstart Linda Stender (49-48). This district looks to be trending our way and should be one of our first-tier targets in 2008.
NM-1: Heather Wilson just won't go away. Patricia Madrid had this one wrapped up until she went slackjawed on a debate question. I'd like to know who else could run for this seat, which should be held by a Democrat (it leans our way in Presidential elections).
NY-25: James Walsh sits in one of the most Democratic seats held by a Republican. Dan Maffei cam really close to knocking him off (51-49), and I feel Walsh isn't long for holding his seat as Central New York and Syracuse are trending Dem.
NY-26: Were Jack Davis not running for Congress as a hobby, Tom Reynolds would be unemployed. Davis singlehandedly turned a huge lead after Foleygate into a defeat. This ought to be a top target for 2008, just like Walsh's seat.
NY-29: Just like Reynolds, I have no idea how Kuhl held his seat. I'll bet he was surprised he won reelection against Eric Massa. This is one of those seats where I just don't know how we'll eventually win it, but we should go for it anyway.
NC-8: Robin Hayes won by the hair of his chinny-chin chin against rising star Larry Kissell (less than 400 votes). I expect big things out of Kissell in the future. He's one of the most courageous campaigners I've seen in a very long time, with a Clintonesque style about him. Kissell is one of those guys who could make a fine senator or governor once he gets to the House and serves a few terms there.
OH-1: Steve Chabot snuck out a 53-47 win against John Cranley in a race which should have received more attention from the netroots.
OH-2: Jean Schmidt is a disgrace...enough said.
OH-15: Deborah Pryce defeated Mary Jo Kilroy by a thousand votes in one of the closest elections in the country. Another first-tier target in 2008, especially with Dem Governor Ted Strickand now setting the agenda and building the base in Ohio.
PA-6: This is a lot like CT-4. Here's a seat we should win and hold for a while. Lois Murphy had two shots at Jim Gerlach, and lost by three and two points in 2004 and 2006, respectively (51-49 this year). We'll need a new candidate to take on Gerlach this time.
PA-15: Charles Dertinger ran a write-in campaign to get on the ballot against Republican incumbent Charles Dent. Dertinger lost 53-44 in an election where he started from virtually nowhere. This district, which contains Allentown, ought to be fought over tooth-and-nail until Dent is defeated.
TX-23: If Ciro Rodriguez doesn't pull the upset tomorrow against Henry Bonilla, we ought to hound Bonilla every two years. This is now a swing district with the extra part of San Antonio added to the district, folks.
VA-2: Thelma Drake squeezed out a 51-49 win against Phil Kellam. I'm not sure who else we can run in this conservative district, but we can't ignore this one.
WA-8: Dave Reichert eeked out a 51-49 win against Darcy Burner. This was one seat I definitely thought would flip. Darcy ought to take a shot at Reichert again, but if she doesn't win the next time, we ought to find another candidate.
WY-AL: Barbara Cubin is another embarrassment we need to get rid of. Gary Trauner ran a fantastic campaign, losing by about a thousand votes. Trauner ought to take another shot at the seat (or even a Senate seat at some point).
That's 35 seats we could have won this time around. Thirty-five seats that comprise our first and second tiers in 2008, right off the bat. I'd like to know your thoughts on candidates who could run for Congress out of these districts and whether we should have rematches from '06 or have new candidates in some of these seats.
This is an open thread for any prospective 2008 House race anyone wishes to talk about.