Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo expresses the concerns many people have with Dean
here and
here.
Josh says he doesn't think the race is over because, while the Dean supporters are now coordinated on Dean those who don't think Dean is the right candidate are not yet coordinated on a candidate.
Josh reprints a John Judis' email that is telling and reflects on the similarities between the Dean and McGovern campaigns. There are many people who have a "been there done that" kind of feeling about Dean.
The race remains unclear because there is not a focal candidate for people who think Dean can't win. My take is that Clark is the best alternative to Dean and that if the race boils down to those two you will see most of the supporters of other candidates (except Lieberman and Gephardt) filter to Clark. A good fraction of Lieberman's support will go to Dean because Lieberman is really a place holder in the polls for people who don't know anything about the candidates. A smaller fraction of true Lieberman supporters will go to Clark as the more centrist. Gephardt's defining issue is trade and I think Dean is likely to be perceived as more protectionist and therefor will pick up a sizeable chunk of Gephardt's support.
The ultimate race for the nomination will remain unclear until we see who the ultimate survivor is of the "not Dean" campaign. If it is Edwards, Clark or Kerry then any one of them may prevail. If it is Gephardt, then I think Dean will win because Gep is even more anti-trade than Dean and many centrists will move to Dean for that reason.
Obviously, just my personal take.