Crime has been completely off the radar of President Bush. Due to terrific gains made during the Clinton years, President Bush inherited the lowest levels of crime in decades, and he has coasted... doing next to nothing, and saying next to nothing, about crime. His remarks on domestic crime in the State of the Union this year consisted of this:
Violent crime rates have fallen to their lowest levels since the 1970s.
But the figures tell a slightly different tale. Murder, the most violent crime of all, has increased every single year of the Bush Presidency except one. And while the final tally isn't in yet, all the evidence suggests that 2006 may have seen the biggest jump in the number of murders in 13 years. Funny thing is, all I keep hearing from the Administration is that things couldn't hardly be better! The damning evidence, a pretty chart, and a bit of analysis-- after the bump...
First, let's look at the anecdotal evidence for 2006. It's not good news. Of the top ten cities in the US by population, six are on pace to have more homicides than last year, while three will likely post declines, and Chicago will approximately match last year's total. Three of the top ten cities will post year to year increases of 15% or greater in number of homicides for 2006:
New York +9%
Los Angeles -6%
Chicago 0%
Houston +15%
Philadelphia +6%
Phoenix +9%
San Diego +31%
San Antonio +53%
Dallas -6%
San Jose -10%
The story gets worse in smaller cities. While a few cities have had slightly fewer homicides this year than last (Washington DC, Milwaukee, Denver) or are treading water (Baltimore), in city after city the story is the same: Murder counts have already topped last year's total, with two weeks to go. In many cases, the numbers are the highest they've been in nearly a decade or more:
Indianapolis already has its most homicides since 1998
Memphis already has more homicides than last year
Cincinnati matches last year's murder total-- on December 5th
Jacksonville, FL at 132 homicides vs. 114 all of last year
Boston homicide rates continue to rise in 2006
Birmingham, AL tops last year's murder totals
Oakland, CA-- 139 murders already this year, up from only 94 in 2005
Sacramento's murder count highest in a decade, with a month yet to go
Newark, NJ hits triple digit homicides for first time since 1995
Orlando, FL sets all-time record for homicides in 2006
Wilmington, DE ties all-time record for homicides
Deadliest year ever in Charleston, SC
Peoria, IL sets all-time record for homicides
Minneapolis records 59th homicide vs. 44 all of last year
The national statistics bear out that the bad news is part of a longer trend. Since George W. Bush took office, homicides have increased every year with the exception of 2004. And the rate of increase has accelerated over the past two years. In 2005, the US experienced its largest increase in homicides since 1993. And crime watchers suggest an increase of similar magnitude this year.
Compare this to the situation that Bush inherited when he took office. Under the Clinton Administration, the number of murders was slashed by more than a third nationwide-- from 24,530 in 1993 down to 15,586 in 2000.
Intuitively, one would think that a good economy and fewer numbers of unemployed people would lead to a better national mood and thus fewer homicides; and it did-- during the Clinton years. But the 'Bush recovery', notorious for not really improving the lot in life of the vast majority of Americans economically, appears to be failing to provide a security dividend as well. Simply put, this has been a lifeless recovery. Let's look at a chart of the number of homicides since 1980 , compared against the number of unemployed people:
A few things to notice here:
- Bush41's last year in office, 1992, had more murders than Jimmy Carter's last year, 1980. To put it simply, Reagan-Bush41 weren't effective at improving the domestic security of the American people if staying alive is the measure.
- Bill Clinton, as mentioned above, did improve the homicide situation, markedly. At the same time, the number of unemployed people dropped. Look at the steady and significant increases in both homicides (yellow) and unemplyed people (orange) from 1993-2000.
- George W. Bush is letting the gains under Clinton begin to slip away.
I want you to look at one more thing on the chart. There are two periods when homicides rise while unemployment falls. The first period is from 1985 to 1989, and the second period is from 2003 to now. Notice similar those two periods are... and then notice what happened right after 1989, when unemployment began to rise: homicides skyrocketed, peaking at the highest number in US history in 1991, and remained at near record levels for the remaining years of Bush41. Could history repeat itself in 2007 and 2008? I wouldn't bet against it.
Given Dubya's track record over his first six years, I think it's safe to say we're on our own here. So if unemployment begins to rise in the next year or so, (and there are many indications that it might), make sure you're packing your pepper spray and your stun gun. Because things could be getting pretty dangerous.